Many continuous variables should be analyzed using the relative scale: a case study of β2-agonists for preventing exercise-induced bronchoconstriction

BACKGROUND: The relative scale adjusts for baseline variability and therefore may lead to findings that can be generalized more widely. It is routinely used for the analysis of binary outcomes but only rarely for continuous outcomes. Our objective was to compare relative vs absolute scale pooled outcomes using data from a recently published Cochrane systematic review that reported only absolute effects of inhaled β2-agonists on exercise-induced decline in forced-expiratory volumes in 1 s (FEV1). METHODS: From the Cochrane review, we selected placebo-controlled cross-over studies that reported individual participant data (IPD). Reversal in FEV1 decline after exercise was modeled as a mean uniform percentage point (pp) change (absolute effect) or average percent change (relative effect) using either intercept-only or slope-only, respectively, linear mixed-effect models. We also calculated the pooled relative effect estimates using standard random-effects, inverse-variance-weighting meta-analysis using study-level mean effects. RESULTS: Fourteen studies with 187 participants were identified for the IPD analysis. On the absolute scale, β2-agonists decreased the exercise-induced FEV1 decline by 28 pp., and on the relative scale, they decreased the FEV1 decline by 90%. The fit of the statistical model was significantly better with the relative 90% estimate compared with the absolute 28 pp. estimate. Furthermore, the median residuals (5.8 vs. 10.8 pp) were substantially smaller in the relative effect model than in the absolute effect model. Using standard study-level meta-analysis of the same 14 studies, β2-agonists reduced exercise-induced FEV1 decline on the relative scale by a similar amount: 83% or 90%, depending on the method of calculating the relative effect. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the absolute scale, the relative scale captures more effectively the variation in the effects of β2-agonists on exercise-induced FEV1-declines. The absolute scale has been used in the analysis of FEV1 changes and may have led to sub-optimal statistical analysis in some cases. The choice between the absolute and relative scale should be determined based on biological reasoning and empirical testing to identify the scale that leads to lower heterogeneity.Peer reviewe

Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decision-making process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models

Reproductive Performance, Udder Health, and Antibiotic Resistance in Mastitis Bacteria isolated from Norwegian Red cows in Conventional and Organic Farming

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objectives of this study were to investigate whether there were differences between Norwegian Red cows in conventional and organic farming with respect to reproductive performance, udder health, and antibiotic resistance in udder pathogens.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty-five conventional and 24 organic herds from south-east and middle Norway participated in the study. Herds were matched such that geographical location, herd size, and barn types were similar across the cohorts. All organic herds were certified as organic between 1997 and 2003. All herds were members of the Norwegian Dairy Herd Recording System. The herds were visited once during the study. The relationship between the outcomes and explanatory variables were assessed using mixed linear models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were less > 2nd parity cows in conventional farming. The conventional cows had higher milk yields and received more concentrates than organic cows. Although after adjustment for milk yield and parity, somatic cell count was lower in organic cows than conventional cows. There was a higher proportion of quarters that were dried off at the herd visit in organic herds. No differences in the interval to first AI, interval to last AI or calving interval was revealed between organic and conventional cows. There was no difference between conventional and organic cows in quarter samples positive for mastitis bacteria from the herd visit. Milk yield and parity were associated with the likelihood of at least one quarter positive for mastitis bacteria. There was few <it>S. aureus </it>isolates resistance to penicillin in both management systems. Penicillin resistance against Coagulase negative staphylococci isolated from subclinically infected quarters was 48.5% in conventional herds and 46.5% in organic herds.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There were no large differences between reproductive performance and udder health between conventional and organic farming for Norwegian Red cows.</p

Deficiency of the Mitochondrial Electron Transport Chain in Muscle Does Not Cause Insulin Resistance

It has been proposed that muscle insulin resistance in type 2 diabetes is due to a selective decrease in the components of the mitochondrial electron transport chain and results from accumulation of toxic products of incomplete fat oxidation. The purpose of the present study was to test this hypothesis.Rats were made severely iron deficient, by means of an iron-deficient diet. Iron deficiency results in decreases of the iron containing mitochondrial respiratory chain proteins without affecting the enzymes of the fatty acid oxidation pathway. Insulin resistance was induced by feeding iron-deficient and control rats a high fat diet. Skeletal muscle insulin resistance was evaluated by measuring glucose transport activity in soleus muscle strips. Mitochondrial proteins were measured by Western blot. Iron deficiency resulted in a decrease in expression of iron containing proteins of the mitochondrial respiratory chain in muscle. Citrate synthase, a non-iron containing citrate cycle enzyme, and long chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (LCAD), used as a marker for the fatty acid oxidation pathway, were unaffected by the iron deficiency. Oleate oxidation by muscle homogenates was increased by high fat feeding and decreased by iron deficiency despite high fat feeding. The high fat diet caused severe insulin resistance of muscle glucose transport. Iron deficiency completely protected against the high fat diet-induced muscle insulin resistance.The results of the study argue against the hypothesis that a deficiency of the electron transport chain (ETC), and imbalance between the ETC and β-oxidation pathways, causes muscle insulin resistance

Developmental Exposure to a Toxic Spill Compromises Long-Term Reproductive Performance in a Wild, Long-Lived Bird: The White Stork (Ciconia ciconia)

Background/Objective: Exposure to environmental contaminants may result in reduced reproductive success and long- lasting population declines in vertebrates. Emerging data from laboratory studies on model species suggest that certain life- stages, such as development, should be of special concern. However, detailed investigations of long-term consequences of developmental exposure to environmental chemicals on breeding performance are currently lacking in wild populations of long-lived vertebrates. Here, we studied how the developmental exposure to a mine spill (Aznalco´ llar, SW Spain, April 1998) may affect fitness under natural conditions in a long-lived bird, the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia). Methodology: The reproductive performance of individually-banded storks that were or not developmentally exposed to the spill (i.e. hatched before or after the spill) was compared when these individuals were simultaneously breeding during the seven years after the spill occurred (1999–2005). Principal Findings: Female storks developmentally exposed to the spill experienced a premature breeding senescence compared with their non-developmentally exposed counterparts, doing so after departing from an unusually higher productivity in their early reproductive life (non-developmentally exposed females: 0.560.33SE fledglings/year at 3-yr old vs. 1.3860.31SE at 6–7 yr old; developmentally exposed females: 1.560.30SE fledglings/year at 3-yr old vs. 0.8660.25SE at 6– 7 yr old). Conclusions/Significance: Following life-history theory, we propose that costly sub-lethal effects reported in stork nestlings after low-level exposure to the spill-derived contaminants might play an important role in shaping this pattern of reproduction, with a clear potential impact on population dynamics. Overall, our study provides evidence that environmental disasters can have long-term, multigenerational consequences on wildlife, particularly when affecting developing individuals, and warns about the risk of widespread low-level contamination in realistic scenarios.Peer reviewe

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

Paleontology of leaf beetles

`The rate of evolution in any large group is not uniform; there are periods of relatise stability, and periods of comparatively rapid change.&apos; Cockerell and LeVeque, 1931 To Yenli Ych, my beloved wife, a most wonderful person! The fossil record of the Chrysomelidae can be tentatively traced back to the late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic Triassic. Mesozoic records at least 9 subfamilies, 19 genera, and 35 species, are represented by the Sagrinae, the exclusively Mesozoic Proto scelinae, Clytrinae, Cryptocephalinae, Eumolpinae, Chrysomelinae. Galerucinac, Alticinae, and Cassidinae. Cenozoic records at least 12 subfamilies- 63 % of the extant- 12! genera, and 325 species, include the same extant subfamilies as well as the Donaciinae, Zeugophorinae, Criocerinae, and Hispinae and can be frequently identified to genus, especially if preserved in amber. Quaternary records are often identified to extant species. tn total, at least t3! genera about 4 % of total extant, and 357 species &lt; 1 % have been reported. At least, 24 genera &lt;1 % of the extant seem to be extinct. Although reliable biological information associated with the fossil chrysomelids is very scarce, it seems that most of the modern host-plant associations were established, at least, in the late Mesozoic to early Cenozoic. As a whole, stasis seems to be the general rule of the chrysomelid fossil record. Together with other faunal elements, chrysomelids, especially donaciines, have been used as biogeographic and paleoclimatological indicators in the Holocene. I