n-3 fatty acid-enriched parenteral nutrition regimens in elective surgical and ICU patients: a meta-analysis

Introduction: Previous studies and a meta-analysis in surgical patients indicate that supplementing parenteral nutrition regimens with n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), in particular eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), is associated with improved laboratory and clinical outcomes in the setting of hyper-inflammatory conditions. Refined or synthetic fish oils are commonly used as a source of EPA and DHA. The objective of the present meta-analysis was to evaluate n-3 PUFA-enriched parenteral nutrition regimens in elective surgical and intensive care unit (ICU) patients.Methods: Medline was searched for randomized controlled trials comparing n-3 PUFA-enriched lipid emulsions with standard non-enriched lipid emulsions (i.e. soybean oil, MCT/LCT or olive/soybean oil emulsions) in surgical and ICU patients receiving parenteral nutrition. Extracted data were pooled by means of both random and fixed effects models, and subgroup analyses were carried forward to compare findings in ICU versus non-ICU patients.Results: A total of 23 studies (n = 1502 patients: n = 762 admitted to the ICU) were included. No statistically significant difference in mortality rate was found between patients receiving n-3 PUFA-enriched lipid emulsions and those receiving standard lipid emulsions (RR= 0.89; 0.59, 1.33), possibly reflecting a relatively low underlying mortality risk. However, n-3 PUFA-enriched emulsions are associated with a statistically and clinically significant reduction in the infection rate (RR =0.61; 0.45, 0.84) and the lengths of stay, both in the ICU (-1.92; -3.27, -0.58) and in hospital overall (-3.29; -5.13, -1.45). Other beneficial effects included reduced markers of inflammation, improved lung gas exchange, liver function, antioxidant status and fatty acid composition of plasma phospholipids, and a trend towards less impairment of kidney function.Conclusions: These results confirm and extend previous findings, indicating that n-3 PUFAs-enriched parenteral nutrition regimens are safe and effective in reducing the infection rate and hospital/ICU stay in surgical and ICU patients. © 2012 Pradelli et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

A scalable forecasting framework to predict COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to capacity problems in many hospitals around the world. During the peak of new infections in Germany in April 2020 and October to December 2020, most hospitals had to cancel elective procedures for patients because of capacity shortages. We present a scalable forecasting framework with a Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the short-term bed occupancy of patients with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 in intensive care units and regular wards. We apply the simulation to different granularity and geographical levels. Our forecasts were a central part of the official weekly reports of the Bavarian State Ministry of Health and Care, which were sent to key decision makers in the individual ambulance districts from May 2020 to March 2021. Our evaluation shows that the forecasting framework delivers accurate forecasts despite data availability and quality issues