Climate Variability and Ross River Virus Transmission in Townsville Region, Australia 1985 to 1996

Background How climate variability affects the transmission of infectious diseases at a regional level remains unclear. In this paper, we assessed the impact of climate variation on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission in the Townsville region, Queensland, north-east Australia. Methods Population-based information was obtained on monthly variations in RRv cases, climatic factors, sea level, and population growth between 1985 and 1996. Cross-correlations were computed for a series of associations between climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and high tide) and the monthly incidence of RRv disease over a range of time lags. The impact of climate variability on RRv transmission was assessed using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Results There were significant correlations of the monthly incidence of RRv to rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity, all at a lag of 2 months, and high tide in the current month. The results of SARIMA models show that monthly average rainfall (β=0.0012, p=0.04) and high tide (β=0.0262, p=0.01) were significantly associated with RRv transmission, although temperature and relative humidity did not seem to have played an important role in the Townsville region. Conclusions Rainfall, and high tide were likely to be key determinants of RRv transmission in the Townsville region

Predictor Model of Root Caries in Older Adults: Reporting of Evidence to the Translational Evidence Mechanism

Compared to younger adults, older adults are at greater risk for root caries. A model of root caries may assist dentists in predicting disease outcomes. OBJECTIVES: Using the Iowa 65+ Oral Health Survey, analysis was done to model the patterns of the root caries development in older adults

Kariesprävalenz von Schülern in 16 Zürcher Landgemeinden in den Jahren 1992 bis 2000

Standardized dental examinations of schoolchildren were regularly carried out since 1964 in 16 rural communities of the Canton of Zurich. In 1964, there were no 14-year-old schoolchildren free from caries; in the Nineties about half of the 14-year-olds had a caries-free permanent dentition (DMFT = 0). From the year 1992 to 2000, the caries prevalence (DMFT) of 14-year-olds decreased once again, by 31%. The pit and fissure caries prevalence (DFS) of 12- and 14-year-olds decreased by 28% and 37%, respectively. In 2000, the mean DMFT-value of the 12- and 14-year-old schoolchildren was 0.90 and 1.27 respectively. In 1964, only few 7-year-old schoolchildren were caries-free; in the Nineties about half of the 7-year-olds had a primary dentition without caries. From the year 1992 to 2000, caries prevalence (dmft) in 7-, 8- and 9-year-olds increased by 64%, 22% and 31%. In 2000, the mean dmft-value of all 7-year-old schoolchildren was 2.45. The Swiss schoolchildren had 1.79 dmft; the schoolchildren from former Yugoslavia and from Albania had 6.89 dmft and those of other nations had 3.37 dmft. Possible reasons for the continuous caries decrease in the permanent dentition and the increase in the primary dentition are discussed. Additional measures in order to improve the situation in the primary dentition are proposed

Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

BACKGROUND: During the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies) is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control. METHODS: The Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity) on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best. RESULTS: The 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85). Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11) but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72). CONCLUSION: Temperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts better than humidity and rainfall. SARIMA models using climatic data as independent variables could be easily incorporated into an early (3 months-ahead) and reliably monitoring system of dengue outbreaks. This approach which is practicable for a surveillance system has public health implications in helping the prediction of dengue epidemic and therefore the timely appropriate and efficient implementation of prevention activities

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission: a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide

Randomized pilot study to disseminate caries-control services in dentist offices

BACKGROUND: To determine whether education and financial incentives increased dentists' delivery of fluoride varnish and sealants to at risk children covered by capitation dental insurance in Washington state (U.S.). METHODS: In 1999, 53 dental offices in Washington Dental Service's capitation dental plan were invited to participate in the study, and consenting offices were randomized to intervention (n = 9) and control (n = 10) groups. Offices recruited 689 capitation children aged 6–14 and at risk for caries, who were followed for 2 years. Intervention offices received provider education and fee-for-service reimbursement for delivering fluoride varnish and sealants. Insurance records were used to calculate office service rates for fluoride, sealants, and restorations. Parents completed mail surveys after follow-up to measure their children's dental utilization, dental satisfaction, dental fear and oral health status. Regression models estimated differences in service rates between intervention and control offices, and compared survey measures between groups. RESULTS: Nineteen offices (34%) consented to participate in the study. Fluoride and sealant rates were greater in the intervention offices than the control offices, but the differences were not statistically significant. Restoration rates were lower in the intervention offices than the control offices. Parents in the intervention group reported their children had less dental fear than control group parents. CONCLUSION: Due to low dentist participation the study lacked power to detect an intervention effect on dentists' delivery of caries-control services. The intervention may have reduced children's dental fear

Minichromosome maintenance protein 6, a proliferation marker superior to Ki-67 and independent predictor of survival in patients with mantle cell lymphoma

Minichromosome maintenance protein 6 (MCM6) is one of six proteins of the MCM family which are involved in the initiation of DNA replication and thus represent a marker of proliferating cells. Since the level of cell proliferation is the most valuable predictor of survival in mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), we investigated lymph node biopsy specimens from 70 patients immunohistochemically with a monoclonal antibody against MCM6. The percentage of MCM6 expressing lymphoma cells ranged from 12.0 to 95.6%, with a mean of 61.0%, and was significantly higher than the percentage of Ki-67-positive cells (P<0.0001). Surprisingly, the ratio of MCM6-positive cells to Ki-67-positive cells was higher than in normal stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells, indicating a cell early G1-phase arrest in MCL. A high MCM6 expression level of more than 75% positive cells was associated with a significantly shorter overall survival time (16 months) compared to MCL with a low MCM6 expression level of less than 25% (no median reached, P<0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed MCM6 to be an independent predictor of survival that is superior to the international prognostic factor and the Ki-67 index. Therefore, aside from gene expression profiling, immunohistochemical detection of MCM6 seems to be the most promising marker for predicting the outcome in MCL

La nueva ley de instituciones bancarias, financieras y de seguros: algunos comentarios

This research was funded by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada discovery grants to LL and L-AG. NJB was financially supported by a Dr. Richard H. Tomlinson Fellowship and a Dr. Milton Leong Fellowship from McGill University. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Background: Successful foraging is essential for survival and reproductive success. In many bird species, foraging is a learned behaviour. To cope with environmental change and survive periods in which regular foods are scarce, the ability to solve novel foraging problems by learning new foraging techniques can be crucial. Although females have been shown to prefer more efficient foragers, the effect of males' foraging techniques on female mate choice has never been studied. We tested whether females would prefer males showing the same learned foraging technique as they had been exposed to as juveniles, or whether females would prefer males that showed a complementary foraging technique. Methodology/Principal Findings: We first trained juvenile male and female zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata) to obtain a significant proportion of their food by one of two foraging techniques. We then tested whether females showed a preference for males with the same or the alternative technique. We found that neither a male's foraging technique nor his foraging performance affected the time females spent in his proximity in the mate-choice apparatus. We then released flocks of these finches into an aviary to investigate whether assortative pairing would be facilitated by birds taught the same technique exploiting the same habitat. Zebra finches trained as juveniles in a specific foraging technique maintained their foraging specialisation in the aviary as adults. However, pair formation and nest location were random with regard to foraging technique. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings show that zebra finches can be successfully trained to be foraging specialists. However, the robust negative results of the conditions tested here suggest that learned foraging specializations do not affect mate choice or pair formation in our experimental context.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Data and models determine treatment proposals—an illustration from meta-analysis

A relevant problem in meta-analysis concerns the possible heterogeneity between trial results. If a test of heterogeneity is not significant the trials are often considered to be "homogeneous" and the individual trial results are replaced by an overall mean effect size and its confidence interval ("equal effects model"). If the trials are heterogeneous the individual trial effect sizes are conserved ("fixed effects model"). In a more flexible approach ("random effects model"), each trial makes use of knowledge from the other trials so individual effect sizes are "shrunken" towards an overall mean effect size. The more flexible tool may be useful for doctors involved in a trial when the outcome of their individual trial differs markedly from the overall mean effect size. Where a particular trial result is opposite in direction to the overall mean result, a conflict may arise: should a new patient be treated with the new method or not? The more flexible position and a graphical comparison of the three approaches are likely to be helpful in guiding the decision. Applying different models to the same data may lead to apparently paradoxical results: an individual trial result may be interpreted to be beneficial or harmful depending on the choice of model