Bayesian Methods for Longitudinal Trending in Probabilities of Collision

Satellites have become an integral part of modern life, supporting phone communication, television and radio broadcasting, internet access, and military activities. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine modern society without many of these technologies, especially in an age when the world is increasingly interconnected via long-distance communications. As of 2013, there were over one thousand operational satellites in orbit about Earth. About half of these active satellites are in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO, meaning an orbital period less than 225 minutes), which is where the International Space Station (ISS) conducts operations, along with other commercial missions such as earth observation and satellite telephone communications. An increasing amount of attention is being placed on protecting satellites in LEO, as the frequency of object launches and satellite fragmentation events has contributed to the proliferation of space debris, resulting in increased congestion

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted

Conjunction Assessment Space Fence Update

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