Barrier island migration dominates ecogeomorphic feedbacks and drives salt marsh loss along the Virginia Atlantic Coast, USA

Coupling between barrier islands and their associated backbarrier environments (salt marsh, tidal flats) leads to complex ecogeomorphic feedbacks that are proposed to control the response of barrier island systems to relative sea-level rise. This study tests the applicability of these still-theoretical concepts through investigation of the Virginia barrier islands (eastern United States), which are located in an area of accelerated sea-level rise. Using historical maps and photographs from A.D. 1851 to 2010, we determine that rapid landward island migration (1–6 m yr–1) is leading to backbarrier area reduction and large-scale salt marsh loss (63 km2 or 19%) at a rate of 0.45 km2 yr–1. Landward barrier island migration far outpaces upland marsh migration and is responsible for 51% of marsh loss; the remainder is due to backbarrier processes (e.g., edge erosion). In direct contrast to proposed ecogeomorphic feedbacks linking barrier island and backbarrier environments, shoreline retreat rates were not related to changes in backbarrier marsh, open-water areas, or tidal prism. Rather, these results indicate that, for barrier island systems already undergoing migration, the primary barrier-backbarrier coupling is the loss of marsh and tidal-flat area because of barrier island migration

Measuring Organization of Large Surficial Clasts in Heterogeneous Gravel Beach Sediments

The natural stratification and interlocking “organization” of armored sediments in heterogeneous, coarse-grained, beaches provides protection and enhances habitat for borrowing sedentary megafauna and macrofauna such as hard-shelled clams. Here, we develop a novel metric for quantifying sediment organization of large surficial beach clasts through sedimentologic and photogrammetric analyses of 37 lower intertidal heterogeneous gravel beaches in western Prince William Sound, Alaska (USA). Grain size, photogrammetric, and Wolman Pebble Count clast-size data from 64, ~1-m2 study plots are combined into a clast-size-independent “Organization Metric” to quantify the degree of organization in the meshed arrangement of larger surficial sediments. This metric was validated through field manipulation experiments and comparisons of adjacent plots characterized by different clast sizes. Application of this metric to subsets of Prince William Sound beaches that underwent differential treatment following the Exxon Valdez oil spill reveals persistent physical effects of artificial beach disturbance even 21 years after the cleanup. This has important implications for beach management (e.g., cleaning or dredging) and for the diverse and productive sedentary megafaunal assemblages that live within these sediments. Overall, this study provides a new approach for quantifying organization of heterogenous coarse sediments in diverse natural settings; in particular, heterogenous gravel beaches

The Secant Conjecture in the real Schubert calculus

We formulate the Secant Conjecture, which is a generalization of the Shapiro Conjecture for Grassmannians. It asserts that an intersection of Schubert varieties in a Grassmannian is transverse with all points real, if the flags defining the Schubert varieties are secant along disjoint intervals of a rational normal curve. We present theoretical evidence for it as well as computational evidence obtained in over one terahertz-year of computing, and we discuss some phenomena we observed in our data.Comment: 19 page

Shoreline Dynamics Along a Developed River Mouth Barrier Island: Multi-Decadal Cycles of Erosion and Event-Driven Mitigation

Human modifications in response to erosion have altered the natural transport of sediment to and across the coastal zone, thereby potentially exacerbating the impacts of future erosive events. Using a combination of historical shoreline-change mapping, sediment sampling, three-dimensional beach surveys, and hydrodynamic modeling of nearshore and inlet processes, this study explored the feedbacks between periodic coastal erosion patterns and associated mitigation responses, focusing on the open-ocean and inner-inlet beaches of Plum Island and the Merrimack River Inlet, Massachusetts, United States. Installation of river-mouth jetties in the early 20th century stabilized the inlet, allowing residential development in northern Plum Island, but triggering successive, multi-decadal cycles of alternating beach erosion and accretion along the inner-inlet and oceanfront beaches. At a finer spatial scale, the formation and southerly migration of an erosion “hotspot” (a setback of the high-water line by ∼100 m) occurs regularly (every 25–40 years) in response to the refraction of northeast storm waves around the ebb-tidal delta. Growth of the delta progressively shifts the focus of storm wave energy further down-shore, replenishing updrift segments with sand through the detachment, landward migration, and shoreline-welding of swash bars. Monitoring recent hotspot migration (2008–2014) demonstrates erosion (\u3e30,000 m3 of sand) along a 350-m section of beach in 6 months, followed by recovery, as the hotspot migrated further south. In response to these erosion cycles, local residents and governmental agencies attempted to protect shorefront properties with a variety of soft and hard structures. The latter have provided protection to some homes, but enhanced erosion elsewhere. Although the local community is in broad agreement about the need to plan for long-term coastal changes associated with sea-level rise and increased storminess, real-time responses have involved reactions mainly to short-term (years) erosion threats. A collective consensus for sustainable management of this area is lacking and the development of a longer-term adaptive perspective needed for proper planning has been elusive. With a deepening understanding of multi-decadal coastal dynamics, including a characterization of the relative contributions of both nature and humans, we can be more optimistic that adaptations beyond mere reactions to shoreline change are achievable

Reconstructing Coastal Sediment Budgets From Beach‐ and Foredune‐Ridge Morphology: A Coupled Field and Modeling Approach

Preserved beach and foredune ridges may serve as proxies for coastal change, reflecting alterations in sea level, wave energy, or past sediment fluxes. In particular, time‐varying shoreface sediment budgets have been inferred from the relative size of foredune ridges through application of radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating to these systems over the last decades. However, geochronological control requires extensive field investigation and analysis. Purely field‐based studies might also overlook relationships between the mechanics of sediment delivery to the shoreface and foredune ridges, missing insights about sensitivity to changes in sediment budget. We therefore propose a simple geomorphic model of beach/foredune‐ridge and swale morphology to quantify the magnitude of changes in cross‐shore sediment budget, employing field measurements of ridge volume, ridge spacing, elevation, and shoreline progradation. Model behaviors are constrained by the partitioning of sediment fluxes to the shoreface and foredune ridge and can be used to reproduce several cross‐shore patterns observed in nature. These include regularly spaced ridges (“washboards”), large singular ridges, and wide swales with poorly developed ridges. We evaluate our model against well‐preserved ridge and swale systems at two sites along the Virginia Eastern Shore (USA): Fishing Point, for which historical records provide a detailed history of shoreline progradation and ridge growth, and Parramore Island, for which a relatively more complex morphology developed over a poorly constrained period of prehistoric growth. Our results suggest this new model could be used to infer the sensitivity of field sites across the globe to variations in sediment delivery

Quantifying thresholds of barrier geomorphic change in a cross-shore sediment-partitioning model

Barrier coasts, including barrier islands, beach-ridge plains, and associated landforms, can assume a broad spectrum of morphologies over multi-decadal scales that reflect conditions of sediment availability, accommodation, and relative sea-level rise. However, the quantitative thresholds of these controls on barrier-system behavior remain largely unexplored, even as modern sea-level rise and anthropogenic modification of sediment availability increasingly reshape the world\u27s sandy coastlines. In this study, we conceptualize barrier coasts as sediment-partitioning frameworks, distributing sand delivered from the shoreface to the subaqueous and subaerial components of the coastal system. Using an idealized morphodynamic model, we explore thresholds of behavioral and morphologic change over decadal to centennial timescales, simulating barrier evolution within quasi-stratigraphic morphological cross sections. Our results indicate a wide diversity of barrier behaviors can be explained by the balance of fluxes delivered to the beach vs. the dune or backbarrier, including previously understudied forms of transgression that allow the subaerial system to continue accumulating sediment during landward migration. Most importantly, our results show that barrier state transitions between progradation, cross-shore amalgamation, aggradation, and transgression are controlled largely through balances within a narrow range of relative sea-level rise and sediment flux. This suggests that, in the face of rising sea levels, subtle changes in sediment fluxes could result in significant changes in barrier morphology. We also demonstrate that modeled barriers with reduced vertical sediment accommodation are highly sensitive to the magnitude and direction of shoreface fluxes. Therefore, natural barriers with limited sediment accommodation could allow for exploration of the future effects of sea-level rise and changing flux magnitudes over a period of years as opposed to the decades required for similar responses in sediment-rich barrier systems. Finally, because our model creates stratigraphy generated under different input parameters, we propose that it could be used in combination with stratigraphic data to hindcast the sensitivity of existing barriers and infer changes in prehistoric morphology, which we anticipate will provide a baseline to assess the reliability of forward modeling predictions

Leveraging the Interdependencies Between Barrier Islands and Backbarrier Saltmarshes to Enhance Resilience to Sea-Level Rise

Barrier islands and their backbarrier saltmarshes have a reciprocal relationship: aeolian and storm processes transport sediment from the beaches and dunes to create and build marshes along the landward fringe of the island. In turn, these marshes exert a stabilizing influence on the barrier by widening the barrier system and forming a platform onto which the island migrates, consequently slowing landward barrier migration and inhibiting storm breaching. Here, we present a novel framework for applying these natural interdependencies to managing coastal systems and enhancing barrier-island resilience. Further, we detail application of these principles through a case study of the design of a marsh creation project that showcases the interdisciplinary engagement of scientists, engineers, stakeholders, and policymakers. Specifically, we describe: (1) the ecologic, sedimentologic, stratigraphic, and morphologic data obtained from the southern 4 km of Cedar Island (Virginia, United States) and nearby backbarrier tidal channels, tidal flats, and flood-tidal deltas, and (2) the use of those data to develop an engineering and design plan for the construction of a high (46 ha) and low (42 ha) fringing marsh platform located behind the island, proximal to a former ephemeral inlet. Additionally, we chronicle the process used to narrow five initial alternative designs to the optimal final plan. This process involved balancing best-available existing science and models, considering design and financial constraints, identifying stakeholder preferences, and maximizing restoration benefits of habitat provision and shoreline protection. Construction of this marsh would: (1) provide additional habitat and ecosystem benefits, (2) slow the rapid migration (up to 15 m/yr at present) of the barrier island, and (3) hinder island breaching. Ultimately, this project – presently at the final design and permitting stage – may enhance the storm and sea-level rise resilience of the island, backbarrier marshes and lagoons, and the mainland town community; and provide an example of a novel science-based approach to coastal resilience that could be applied to other global barrier settings

Overcoming early career barriers to interdisciplinary climate change research

Climate-change impacts are among the most serious and complex challenges facing society, affecting both natural and social systems. Addressing these requires a new paradigm of interdisciplinary collaboration which incorporates tools, techniques, and insights from across the social, natural, and engineering sciences. Yet, a wide range of intrinsic and extrinsic hurdles need to be overcome to conduct successful, integrated interdisciplinary research. The results of a bibliometric analysis and survey of early to mid-career scientists from 56 countries who were involved with the interdisciplinary DISsertations initiative for the advancement of Climate Change ReSearch (DISCCRS) emphasize the particular challenges faced by early career researchers. Survey respondents perceive conflict between the need for interdisciplinary climate-change research and its potential detriment to career advancement. However, participation in interventions for early career scientists, such as networking and training symposia, had both perceived and measurable impacts on the likelihood of engagement in climate-centric interdisciplinary research. Respondents also ranked alternative mechanisms for encouraging incorporation of interdisciplinary science at early career stages, prioritizing funding of interdisciplinary seed grants, fellowships, and junior faculty networks, interdisciplinary teamwork and communication training, and interdepartmental symposia. To this we add the suggestion that interdisciplinarity be incorporated into tenure and promotion evaluations through the use of exploratory science mapping tools. Despite the need to foster interdisciplinary research and the availability of multiple prospective solutions, there remain expansive structural challenges to its promotion and recognition which, unless collectively addressed, will continue to hinder its potential growth and application to climate-change science

Tidal erosion and upstream sediment trapping modulate records of land-use change in a formerly glaciated New England estuary

Land clearing, river impoundments, and other human modifications to theupland landscape and within estuarine systems can drive coastal change at local to regionalscales. However, as compared with mid-latitude coasts, the impacts of human modificationsalong sediment-starved formerly glaciated coastal landscapes are relatively understudied.To address this gap, we present a late-Holocene record of changing sediment accumulationrates and sediment sources from sediment cores collected across a tidal flat in theMerrimack River estuary (Mass., USA). We pairsedimentology, geochronology, bulk- andstable-isotope organic geochemistry, and hydrodynamic simulations with historical datato evaluate human and natural impacts on coastal sediment fluxes. During the 17th to19th centuries, accumulation rates increased by an order of magnitude in the central tidalflat, likely in response to enhanced delivery of terrestrial sediment resulting from uplanddeforestation. However, the overall increase in accumulation (0.56–2.6 mm/year) withinthe estuary is subtle and spatially variableacross the tidal flats because of coincidentanthropogenic land clearing and dam building, upland sediment storage, and estuarinehydrodynamics. This study provides insight into the response of formerly glaciated fluvial-coastal systems to human modifications, and underscores the role of estuarine environmen-tal conditions in modifying upland signals of land-use change