Prognosis of future groundwater recharge in the Federal State of Lower Saxony (Germany) under changed climate conditions

KEY WORDS groundwater recharge, climate changeABSTRACTAccording to current climate projections, the Federal State of Lower Saxony, Germany is at risk for changes in the hydrological budget. These changes are expected to have direct impacts on the long-term water availability for e.g. agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. In the southeastern part for instance agricultural production is only possible by means of field irrigation using groundwater, especially during dry summers. It can be foreseen that the future management of water resources has to consider appropriate adaptation measures in order to feed the water demand of the different sectors. The main target of a research project carried out jointly with LBEG is the prognosis of the possible impact of climate change on groundwater availability and irrigation needs in Lower Saxony. For this purpose, the water balance model GROWA has been enhanced to the mGROWA-model (Herrmann et al., 2013) which is able to simulate runoff components (e.g. groundwater recharge) in daily time-steps and with high spatial resolution (100 m grid). The mGROWA-model will be briefly introduced and its application to Lower Saxony will be presented. The first simulation performed based on climate data from the past (1971-2000). Special attention will be paid to the simulated temporal variable water content in the root zone and thus to percolation water fluxes and irrigation needs. Finally, the future groundwater recharge (until 2100) is forecasted using climate data of the RCM WETTREG (2010). References:Herrmann, F., Chen, S., Heidt, S., Elbracht, J., Engel, N., Kunkel, R., Müller, U., Röhm, H., Wendland, F. (2013): Zeitlich und räumlich hochaufgelöste flächendifferenzierte Simulation des Landschaftswasserhaushalts in Niedersachsen mit dem Model mGROWA. Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung (submitted for publication)

Human Practice. Digital Ecologies. Our Future. : 14. Internationale Tagung Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI 2019) : Tagungsband

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Modelling of future groundwater recharge in the metropolitian area of Hamburg (Germany) under changed climate conditions

According to current climate projections, the metropolitan area of Hamburg, Germany is at risk for changes in the hydrological budget. These changes are expected to have direct impacts on the long-term water availability for e.g. agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. In the south-eastern part of the Metropolitan area for instance agricultural production without restrictions is only possible by means of field irrigation, especially during dry summers. It can be foreseen that the future management of water resources has to consider appropriate adaptation measures in order to feed the water demand of different sectors. The main target of a research project carried out by the authors in the framework of the BMBF research priority “KLIMZUG-NORD” is the modelling of the possible impact of climate change on groundwater availability and irrigation needs in the metropolitan area of Hamburg. For this purpose, the water balance model GROWA (Wendland et al., 2003) has been further developed to the mGROWA model (Herrmann et al., 2012) which is able to simulate runoff components (e.g. groundwater recharge) in daily time-steps and with high spatial resolution (100 m grid). The mGROWA model will be briefly introduced and its application to the metropolitan area will be presented. At first the simulation performance for the reference period (1961-2005) will be presented, e.g. with regard to the simulated temporal variable water content in the root zone (and thus to the irrigation demand) and groundwater recharge. This is followed by the presentation of the results of several model runs in which a climate data ensemble (REMO, WETTREG2010) is used as model input for the period 1980-2100. Finally, the expected changes in the hydrological budget until 2100 and the resultant impacts on groundwater resources management will be discussed. References: Wendland, F., Kunkel, R., Tetzlaff, B., Dörhöfer, G. (2003): GIS-based determination of the mean long-term groundwater recharge in Lower Saxony. Environmental Geology 45, 273-278. Herrmann, F., Engel, N., Chen, S., Heidt, L., Kunkel, R., Müller, U. & Wendland, F. (2012, in preparation): Das Modell mGROWA zur Simulation des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes in hoher zeitlicher Auflösung. Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich Reihe Umwelt/ Environment. Research Centre Jülich; Jülich

Auswirkung von möglichen Klimaänderungen auf die Grundwasserneubildung in der Metropolregion Hamburg

In den ländlichen Gebieten der Metropolregion Hamburg findet intensive Landwirtschaft statt. Vor allem im südlichen Teil, in der Lüneburger Heide, muss jedoch für hohe Erträge in der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion eine intensive Feldberegnung durchgeführt werden. Ursache dafür sind einerseits das relativ geringe Wasserspeichervermögen der Böden und andererseits die während der Vegetationsperiode von der Nordseeküste ins Landesinnere hin abnehmenden Niederschläge. Ein Großteil der für die Feldberegnung benötigten Wassermengen müssen aus den Grundwasserleitern der Region gefördert werden. Im Sinne einer am Prinzip der Nachhaltigkeit orientierten Bewirtschaftungsstrategie der Grundwasserressourcen, sollten nur die Mengen Grundwasser entnommen werden (Grundwasserdargebot), die heute und zukünftig durch die Prozesse im Landschaftswasserhaushalt auch wieder neu gebildet werden können.Vor diesem Hintergrund wurden im Rahmen des BMBF-Projektes KLIMZUG-Nord die möglichen Auswirkungen von Klimaänderungen auf das Grundwasserdargebot in der Metropolregion Hamburg regional differenziert ermittelt. Dies erfolgte basierend auf Simulationen mit dem Wasserhaushaltsmodell mGROWA (Herrmann et al., 2013). Mit mGROWA können der zeitlich variable Wassergehalt in den Böden, die auf Basis dieses Wassergehaltes und der klimatischen Bedingungen stattfindende Verdunstung, die Sickerwasserbewegung sowie auch die Grundwasserneubildung (und weitere Abflusskomponenten mehr) in hoher räumlicher (z.B. 100 m Raster) und zeitlicher Auflösung (Tage) auf Landesebene für lange Zeiträume (hydrologische Perioden >30 Jahre) auf Basis beobachteter oder projizierter Klimadaten simuliert werden.Für die Metropolregion Hamburg werden zunächst die mGROWA-Simulationsergebnisse für die beobachtete hydrologische Periode von 1971-2000 präsentiert und die Evaluierung der Ergebnisse anhand beobachteter Abflussganglinien diskutiert. Anschließend werden möglich erscheinende zukünftige Änderungen der Grundwasserneubildung gegenüber der Referenzperiode dargestellt. Diese Darstellung basiert auf mehreren Simulationen, bei denen mGROWA mit den Ergebnissen verschiedener regionaler Klimaprojektionen (WETTREG, REMO) angetrieben wurde. Referenzen:Herrmann F., Chen S., Heidt L., Elbracht J., Engel N., Kunkel R., Müller U., Röhm H. und Wendland F. (2013): Zeitlich und räumlich hochaufgelöste flächendifferenzierte Simulation des Landschaftswasserhaushalts in Niedersachsen mit dem Model mGROWA. (eingereicht in Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung

Zeitlich und räumlich hochaufgelöste flächendifferenzierte Simulation des Landschaftswasserhaushalts in Niedersachsen mit dem Model mGROWA

In diesem Artikel wird das konzeptionelle flächendifferenzierte Wasserhaushaltsmodell mGROWA beschrieben, welches am Forschungszentrum Jülich in Kooperation mit dem Landesamt für Bergbau, Energie und Geologie in Hannover im Auftrag des Niedersächsischen Ministeriums für Umwelt, Energie und Klimaschutz entwickelt wurde. Die Simulation des Wasserhaushalts mit dem mGROWA-Modell ist in zwei wesentliche Schritte gegliedert. Als erstes erfolgt die Berechnung der tatsächlichen Evapotranspiration in Tagesschritten unter Berücksichtigung des für diesen Prozess zur Verfügung stehenden Wassers. Für Flächen mit Vegetation wird dazu ein Mehrschicht-Bodenwasserhaushaltsmodell verwendet. Auf Basis der Wasserhaushaltsgleichung wird danach zeitlich (einzelne Tage) und räumlich (100 m Raster) hochaufgelöst die Verteilung des Gesamtabflusses und der Sickerwasserrate ermittelt. Im zweiten Schritt wird der gebildete Gesamtabfluss in die Grundwasserneubildung und die Direktabflusskomponenten separiert, wobei der anthropogen induzierte Abfluss über künstliche Entwässerungssysteme aufgrund seiner Relevanz für den Landschaftswasserhaushalt gesondert ausgewiesen wird. Für das Bundesland Niedersachsen werden exemplarisch die Simulationsergebnisse für die hydrologische Periode von 1971-2000 präsentiert und anhand beobachteter Abflussganglinien evaluiert. Abschließend wird ausgeführt, wie das mGROWA-Modell in Niedersachsen zukünftig für die Entscheidungsunterstützung bei der wasserwirtschaftlichen Planung eingesetzt werden soll, z.B. im Hinblick auf die Analyse von Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf den zukünftigen Wasserhaushalt