Analyse der langfristigen Auswirkungen von Elektromobilität auf das deutsche Energiesystem im europäischen Energieverbund

This work analyses the long-term impact of electric mobility on the energy system, and aims to support the decision making of actors in the European electricity system, which takes electric mobility into account. For this purpose the Europe-wide development of electric mobility and of the energy system are examined in an integrated way based on a model coupling. This allows to analyse the interdependencies of both developments in this model-based approach endogenously

Optimal Configuration of Wind-to-Ammonia with the Electric Network and Hydrogen Supply Chain: A Case Study of Inner Mongolia

Converting wind energy into ammonia (WtA) has been recognized as a promising pathway to enhance the usage of wind generation. This paper proposes a generic optimal configuration model of WtA at the network level to minimize the ammonia production cost by optimizing capacities and locations of WtA facilities including wind turbines, electrolyzers, hydrogen tanks and optimizing supply modes among regions. Specifically, the temporal fluctuation characteristics of wind resources, the operation flexibility of the ammonia synthesis reactor and the transport distances are considered. Three typical supply modes, i.e., the Local WtA, the EN (electric network)-based WtA and the HSC (hydrogen supply chain)-based WtA, combined with two energy transport modes including EN and HT (Hydrogen truck trailers) are included with the consideration of the maximal energy transport capacity of EN and transport distance per day of HT (500km). Real data of Inner Mongolia (a typical province in China with rich wind resources and existing ammonia industries) is employed to verify the effectiveness and significance of proposed model. The effect of above significant factors on optimal planning capacity of WtA facilities and optimal energy transport modes is analyzed, which provides guidelines for WtA configuration. The economic analysis shows that the average LCOA (levelized cost of ammonia) for WtA is approximately 0.57 euro/kg in Inner Mongolia and comparable to that for CtA (coal-to-ammonia, 0.41 euro/kg) with a reduction of 30% in capacity cost of the facilities

A Coal Phase-out in Germany – Clean, Efficient and Affordable?

AbstractGermany seems to miss its CO2 reduction target in 2020. Due to this, ideas for additional political measures arise. One of them is an early phase-out of coal power plants. However, possible impacts of such a phase-out on the energy system aren’t fully analyzed yet. Therefore we apply a German energy system model to analyze those impacts. Our three scenarios show that a final coal phase-out until 2040 could reduce CO2 to a certain extent, but increases total costs. However, an equal CO2 reduction can be obtained with a different strategy and lower costs. In the latter scenario the additional costs are distributed in addition more evenly across the sectors. This analysis points out which consequences could arise by excluding several options in parallel from a technology portfolio

Adapting the theory of resilience to energy systems: A review and outlook

Sustainable systems must maintain their function even in the event of disruptions in order to be considered truly sustainable. The theory of resilience concerns the behavior of systems during and aftershocks. Initially, modern understanding of resilience focused on ecological systems; however, the theory was extended to include the ecological aspects and the also social aspects of a system. As a result of climate change, increased efforts have been made to ensure energy systems are more sustainable. The issue of resilience has therefore significantly gained importance of late to energy systems. In the future, modern energy systems will be increasingly exposed to disruptions, whether due to climate change, terrorism, or variable power supply from renewable energy sources. Protecting energy systems from all these threats is only possible at great cost, but it is much more sensible to design resilient systems that can quickly resume their system function after a disturbance. This review looks at research into the resilience and its application to energy systems and identifies similarities and differences. Starting with Holling’s contribution to resilience, the development of the theory is examined and the different definitions are compared. The differences between engineering and ecological resilience are also discussed. Additionally, the review examines, on the one hand, criticism of the theory of resilience and, on the other hand, remaining questions in relation to the application of resilience, such as the system’s state after the disruption. The paper subsequently examines the application of the theory of resilience to different energy systems. The review concludes with an outlook on the possibility of operationalizing resilience for energy systems

The Potential of Variable Renewable Energy Sources in Mexico: A Temporally Evaluated and Geospatially Constrained Techno-Economical Assessment

Due to the increasing global importance of decarbonizing human activities, especially the production of electricity, the optimal deployment of renewable energy technologies will play a crucial role in future energy systems. To accomplish this, particular attention must be accorded to the geospatial and temporal distribution of variable renewable energy sources (VRES), such as wind and solar radiation, in order to match electricity supply and demand. This study presents a techno-economical assessment of four energy technologies in the hypothetical context of Mexico in 2050, namely: onshore and offshore wind turbines and open-field and rooftop photovoltaics. A land eligibility analysis incorporating physical, environmental, and sociopolitical eligibility constraints and individual turbine and photovoltaic park simulations, drawing on 39 years of climate data, is performed for individual sites across the country in an effort to determine the installable potential and the associated levelized costs of electricity. The results reveal that up to 54 PWh of renewable electricity can be produced at a levelized cost of electricity of less than 70 EUR·MWh−1. Around 91% (49 PWh) of this electricity would originate from 23 TW of open-field photovoltaic parks that could occupy up to 578,000 km2 of eligible land across the country. The remaining 9% (4.8 PWh) could be produced by 1.9 TW of onshore wind installations allocated to approximately 68,500 km2 of eligible land that is almost fully adjacent to three mountainous zones. The combination of rooftop photovoltaic and offshore wind turbines accounts for a very small share of less than 0.03% of the overall techno-economical potential

Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa

Increasing levels of climatic warming are expected to affect the global development of energy consumption. The cooling degree day (CDD) is one of the climate-driven indices that captures the impact of climate on energy demand. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal trends of CDD in relation to a changing climate and economy in West Africa and its main implications. Hence, in order to analyze how energy demand could evolve, this study aims to assess the changes in CDD under 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 ° C global warming levels (GWLs), with and without population exposure and trends under the two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for West Africa. A climate-reflective base temperature (T-base) is used and was determined using a piecewise linear regression method. Seasonal electricity consumption was derived using a decomposition feature. An ensemble of seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used for the future temperature projections. The future population was based on shared socioeconomic pathway outputs. Based on the analysis, the reported average T-base for the West African region is 24 ° C. An increasing CDD trend was identified in all of the RCP scenarios, but is more pronounced in RCP8.5. RCP8.5 departs from the mean historical period of approximately 20% by 2100 with the standardized value. The same trend is observed under different GWLs as the warming level increased and was most striking in the Sahelian zone. Population exposure to CDD (labelled CDDP) increases with warming levels, but is more pronounced in highly agglomerated areas. The CDDP index best captures the spatial representation of areas with high cooling demand potential with respect to the demographic distribution. This study can serve to inform better energy demand assessment scenarios and supply planning against the backdrop of changing climate conditions in West Africa

Counter-intuitive behaviour of energy system models under CO2 caps and prices

The mitigation of climate change requires a fundamental transition of the energy system. Affordability, reliability and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions constitute central but often conflicting targets for this energy transition. Against this context, we reveal limitations and counter-intuitive results in the model-based optimization of energy systems, which are often applied for policy advice. When system costs are minimized in the presence of a CO2 cap, efficiency gains free a part of the CO2 cap, allowing cheap technologies to replace expensive low-emission technologies. Even more striking results are observed in a setup where emissions are minimized in the presence of a budget constraint. Increasing CO2 prices can oust clean, but expensive technologies out of the system, and eventually lead to higher emissions. These effects robustly occur in models of different scope and complexity. Hence, extreme care is necessary in the application of energy system optimization models to avoid misleading policy advice. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved