Two Essays in Agriculture Trade and Food Security: 1. Decomposing the Impact of GMO Regulation on Bilateral Trade: An Application to Corn Trade; 2. Can Food-Security Policies in Tunisia be Better Targeted?

This dissertation is composed of two essays on agricultural trade and food security. The first chapter is entitled “Decomposing the GMO regulation impact on bilateral trade.” The essay analyses the complex impact of GMO regulations among countries on bilateral trade with a focus on GMO approvals. Three effects impact bilateral trade flows between trade partners: productivity enhancements in the source country, sorting cost from bilateral dissimilarity in regulations, and stringency impact on import demand. We estimate the model using a panel dataset of corn trade and two econometric approaches (PPML, Heckman sample-selection). We find that GMO laxity in production of exporters has the most prominent and robust effect of enhancing bilateral trade of corn. The effect of GMO laxity in demand appears to be smaller than the export booster effect of GMO adoption. Finally, bilateral dissimilarity in regulations does not appear to matter once we account for the impact of GMO in exporters’ production and for laxity in demand. The second essay is titled “Can food security policies in Tunisia be better targeted?” The essay examines the issue of food security in Tunisia and the possibility of better-targeted food security policies. A modified version of the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model is used to explore different scenarios related to the grain industry in Tunisia and evaluates the effectiveness of existing food policy interventions. The approach relies on a PIGLOG demand modeling, which allows for precise aggregation of income-decile demands and accounts for income inequality. The data includes information on consumption, quantity, price, decile income distribution, decile expenditure share, and elasticities. Results show that the current Tunisian subsidy system leaves the lowest income decile vulnerable to food insecurity while inducing large fiscal outlays and deadweight losses. Rising international grain prices exacerbate these issues. Means-tested food stamps improve food security of vulnerable deciles, with potential fiscal savings. Advisor: John Beghi