The distributional impact of KiwiSaver incentives

New Zealand’s approach to retirement incomes profoundly changed with the recent introduction of KiwiSaver and its associated tax incentives. Previous policy reduced lifetime inequality but KiwiSaver and its tax incentives will increase future inequality and lead to diverging living standards for the elderly. In this paper we evaluate the distributional effects of these tax incentives. Using data from a nationwide survey conducted by the authors, we estimate the value of the equivalent income transfer provided to individuals by the tax incentives for KiwiSaver participation. Concentration curves and inequality decompositions are used to compare the distributive impact of these tax incentives with those for New Zealand Superannuation. Estimates are reported for both initial and lifetime impacts, with the greatest effect on inequality apparent in the lifetime impacts

Wage Structures and Employment Outcomes in New Zealand, and Their Relationship to Technological Change

After 100 years at an historically low level, inequality began to rise in the late 20th century, a trend which was especially marked in the English-speaking countries including New Zealand. Various explanations have been advanced, but internationally the most favoured theory is skill-biased technological change, driven by the new information and communication technologies. This thesis used income and wage data from the New Zealand Population Census and the New Zealand Income Survey to examine wage trends between 1991 and 2004. As in other developed countries wage dispersion was increasing in the 1990s, though it appears to have slowed since 2001, and the increased inequality is strongly correlated with workers' skills and qualifications. There is also a correlation between new technology and earnings inequality, but this appears to be attributable to the demand for skills in the industries which are changing fastest, rather than anything intrinsic to the new technology

The Keck Cosmic Web Imager Integral Field Spectrograph

We report on the design and performance of the Keck Cosmic Web Imager (KCWI), a general purpose optical integral field spectrograph that has been installed at the Nasmyth port of the 10 m Keck II telescope on Maunakea, Hawaii. The novel design provides blue-optimized seeing-limited imaging from 350–560 nm with configurable spectral resolution from 1000–20,000 in a field of view up to 20'' × 33''. Selectable volume phase holographic (VPH) gratings and high-performance dielectric, multilayer silver, and enhanced-aluminum coatings provide end-to-end peak efficiency in excess of 45% while accommodating the future addition of a red channel that will extend wavelength coverage to 1 micron. KCWI takes full advantage of the excellent seeing and dark sky above Maunakea with an available nod-and-shuffle observing mode. The instrument is optimized for observations of faint, diffuse objects such as the intergalactic medium or cosmic web. In this paper, a detailed description of the instrument design is provided with measured performance results from the laboratory test program and 10 nights of on-sky commissioning during the spring of 2017. The KCWI team is lead by Caltech and JPL (project management, design, and implementation) in partnership with the University of California at Santa Cruz (camera optical and mechanical design) and the W. M. Keck Observatory (observatory interfaces)

Droplets I: Pressure-Dominated Sub-0.1 pc Coherent Structures in L1688 and B18

We present the observation and analysis of newly discovered coherent structures in the L1688 region of Ophiuchus and the B18 region of Taurus. Using data from the Green Bank Ammonia Survey (GAS), we identify regions of high density and near-constant, almost-thermal, velocity dispersion. Eighteen coherent structures are revealed, twelve in L1688 and six in B18, each of which shows a sharp "transition to coherence" in velocity dispersion around its periphery. The identification of these structures provides a chance to study the coherent structures in molecular clouds statistically. The identified coherent structures have a typical radius of 0.04 pc and a typical mass of 0.4 Msun, generally smaller than previously known coherent cores identified by Goodman et al. (1998), Caselli et al. (2002), and Pineda et al. (2010). We call these structures "droplets." We find that unlike previously known coherent cores, these structures are not virially bound by self-gravity and are instead predominantly confined by ambient pressure. The droplets have density profiles shallower than a critical Bonnor-Ebert sphere, and they have a velocity (VLSR) distribution consistent with the dense gas motions traced by NH3 emission. These results point to a potential formation mechanism through pressure compression and turbulent processes in the dense gas. We present a comparison with a magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a star-forming region, and we speculate on the relationship of droplets with larger, gravitationally bound coherent cores, as well as on the role that droplets and other coherent structures play in the star formation process.Comment: Accepted by ApJ in April, 201

The Future of Fundamental Science Led by Generative Closed-Loop Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in machine learning and AI, including Generative AI and LLMs, are disrupting technological innovation, product development, and society as a whole. AI's contribution to technology can come from multiple approaches that require access to large training data sets and clear performance evaluation criteria, ranging from pattern recognition and classification to generative models. Yet, AI has contributed less to fundamental science in part because large data sets of high-quality data for scientific practice and model discovery are more difficult to access. Generative AI, in general, and Large Language Models in particular, may represent an opportunity to augment and accelerate the scientific discovery of fundamental deep science with quantitative models. Here we explore and investigate aspects of an AI-driven, automated, closed-loop approach to scientific discovery, including self-driven hypothesis generation and open-ended autonomous exploration of the hypothesis space. Integrating AI-driven automation into the practice of science would mitigate current problems, including the replication of findings, systematic production of data, and ultimately democratisation of the scientific process. Realising these possibilities requires a vision for augmented AI coupled with a diversity of AI approaches able to deal with fundamental aspects of causality analysis and model discovery while enabling unbiased search across the space of putative explanations. These advances hold the promise to unleash AI's potential for searching and discovering the fundamental structure of our world beyond what human scientists have been able to achieve. Such a vision would push the boundaries of new fundamental science rather than automatize current workflows and instead open doors for technological innovation to tackle some of the greatest challenges facing humanity today.Comment: 35 pages, first draft of the final report from the Alan Turing Institute on AI for Scientific Discover

Transforming U.S. agriculture with crushed rock for CO2_2 sequestration and increased production

Enhanced weathering (EW) is a promising modification to current agricultural practices that uses crushed silicate rocks to drive carbon dioxide removal (CDR). If widely adopted on farmlands, it could help achieve net-zero or negative emissions by 2050. We report detailed state-level analysis indicating EW deployed on agricultural land could sequester 0.23-0.38 Gt CO$_2$ yr$^{-1}$ and meet 36-60 % of U.S. technological CDR goals. Average CDR costs vary between state, being highest in the first decades before declining to a range of $\sim\$$100-150 tCO$_2{}^{-1}$ by 2050, including for three states (Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana) that contribute most to total national CDR. We identify multiple electoral swing states as being essential for scaling EW that are also key beneficiaries of the practice, indicating the need for strong bipartisan support of this technology. Assessment the geochemical capacity of rivers and oceans to carry dissolved EW products from soil drainage suggests EW provides secure long-term CO$_2$ removal on intergenerational time scales. We additionally forecast mitigation of ground-level ozone increases expected with future climate change, as an indirect benefit of EW, and consequent avoidance of yield reductions. Our assessment supports EW as a practical innovation for leveraging agriculture to enable positive action on climate change with adherence to federal environmental justice priorities. However, implementing a stage-gating framework as upscaling proceeds to safeguard against environmental and biodiversity concerns will be essential

Asymmetric thinning of the cerebral cortex across the adult lifespan is accelerated in Alzheimer’s disease

© 2021, The Author(s). Aging and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are associated with progressive brain disorganization. Although structural asymmetry is an organizing feature of the cerebral cortex it is unknown whether continuous age- and AD-related cortical degradation alters cortical asymmetry. Here, in multiple longitudinal adult lifespan cohorts we show that higher-order cortical regions exhibiting pronounced asymmetry at age ~20 also show progressive asymmetry-loss across the adult lifespan. Hence, accelerated thinning of the (previously) thicker homotopic hemisphere is a feature of aging. This organizational principle showed high consistency across cohorts in the Lifebrain consortium, and both the topological patterns and temporal dynamics of asymmetry-loss were markedly similar across replicating samples. Asymmetry-change was further accelerated in AD. Results suggest a system-wide dedifferentiation of the adaptive asymmetric organization of heteromodal cortex in aging and AD

Health benefits of late-onset metformin treatment every other week in mice

Chronic 1% metformin treatment is nephrotoxic in mice, but this dose may nonetheless confer health benefits if given intermittently rather than continuously. Here, we examined the effects of 1% metformin given every-other week (EOW) or two consecutive weeks per month (2WM) on survival of 2-year-old male mice fed standard chow. EOW and 2WM mice had comparable life span compared with control mice. A significant reduction in body weight within the first few weeks of metformin treatment was observed without impact on food consumption and energy expenditure. Moreover, there were differences in the action of metformin on metabolic markers between the EOW and 2WM groups, with EOW metformin conferring greater benefits. Age-associated kidney lesions became more pronounced with metformin, although without pathological consequences. In the liver, metformin treatment led to an overall reduction in steatosis and was accompanied by distinct transcriptomic and metabolomic signatures in response to EOW versus 2WM regimens. Thus, the absence of adverse outcomes associated with chronic, intermittent use of 1% metformin in old mice has clinical translatability into the biology of aging in humans

Stratification of biological therapies by pathobiology in biologic-naive patients with rheumatoid arthritis (STRAP and STRAP-EU): two parallel, open-label, biopsy-driven, randomised trials

Background Despite highly effective targeted therapies for rheumatoid arthritis, about 40% of patients respond poorly, and predictive biomarkers for treatment choices are lacking. We did a biopsy-driven trial to compare the response to rituximab, etanercept, and tocilizumab in biologic-naive patients with rheumatoid arthritis stratified for synovial B cell status. Methods STRAP and STRAP-EU were two parallel, open-label, biopsy-driven, stratified, randomised, phase 3 trials done across 26 university centres in the UK and Europe. Biologic-naive patients aged 18 years or older with rheumatoid arthritis based on American College of Rheumatology (ACR)–European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria and an inadequate response to conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) were included. Following ultrasound-guided synovial biopsy, patients were classified as B cell poor or B cell rich according to synovial B cell signatures and randomly assigned (1:1:1) to intravenous rituximab (1000 mg at week 0 and week 2), subcutaneous tocilizumab (162 mg per week), or subcutaneous etanercept (50 mg per week). The primary outcome was the 16-week ACR20 response in the B cell-poor, intention-to-treat population (defined as all randomly assigned patients), with data pooled from the two trials, comparing etanercept and tocilizumab (grouped) versus rituximab. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. These trials are registered with the EU Clinical Trials Register, 2014-003529-16 (STRAP) and 2017-004079-30 (STRAP-EU). Findings Between June 8, 2015, and July 4, 2019, 226 patients were randomly assigned to etanercept (n=73), tocilizumab (n=74), and rituximab (n=79). Three patients (one in each group) were excluded after randomisation because they received parenteral steroids in the 4 weeks before recruitment. 168 (75%) of 223 patients in the intention-to-treat population were women and 170 (76%) were White. In the B cell-poor population, ACR20 response at 16 weeks (primary endpoint) showed no significant differences between etanercept and tocilizumab grouped together and rituximab (46 [60%] of 77 patients vs 26 [59%] of 44; odds ratio 1·02 [95% CI 0·47–2·17], p=0·97). No differences were observed for adverse events, including serious adverse events, which occurred in six (6%) of 102 patients in the rituximab group, nine (6%) of 108 patients in the etanercept group, and three (4%) of 73 patients in the tocilizumab group (p=0·53). Interpretation In this biologic-naive population of patients with rheumatoid arthrtitis, the dichotomic classification into synovial B cell poor versus rich did not predict treatment response to B cell depletion with rituximab compared with alternative treatment strategies. However, the lack of response to rituximab in patients with a pauci-immune pathotype and the higher risk of structural damage progression in B cell-rich patients treated with rituximab warrant further investigations into the ability of synovial tissue analyses to inform disease pathogenesis and treatment response. Funding UK Medical Research Council and Versus Arthritis