Maximum economic market potential of PHEV and BEV vehicles in Germany in 2015 to 2030 under different policy conditions

The paper investigates an economic market potential for Plug-in Hybrid- and Battery Electric vehicles considering different categories of customers in Germany from 2015 to 2030. A multi-step methodology using constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory is developed to derive a general framework potential and a concrete economic potential for the different vehicles and ownership models under adjustable technical and legislative aspects

Policy driven demand for sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery-electric vehicles in Germany

While technology issues are increasingly overcoming, the economic viability of electric vehicles is remaining constrained by higher prices than for conventional vehicles. However, first automakers present their Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) or at least pronounce them for the near future. Hence, there is an emerging need for vehicle manufacturers, practitioners and policy to estimate the particular demand for partly and fully electrified drive trains under the current and probable future economic and regulatory conditions. In our paper we analyze the possible German car market’s development towards electric mobility for the two key technologies, PHEV and BEV. A multi-step methodology using technical, social and economic constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory is developed to derive demand for electric vehicles between 2015 and 2030. A scenario approach is used to demonstrate the impact of several policy approaches on demand for cars with electric drive trains in Germany. The results can provide valuable insights for policy design as well as for transport and environmental modelling at the same time

What drives service traffic? An empirical research on corporate travel behaviour

Urban traffic is frequently characterized by congested roads. Passenger vehicles, light and heavy duty trucks cause traffic holdups, emit noise, contribute to air pollution (e.g. CO2, PM10 and NOX) and thus burden today’s society, environment and economy (cf. EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2010). Service traffic like facility management, home care, maintenance, consultant services, gardening etc. generates up to 20 % of urban road traffic (SENATSVERWALTUNG FÜR STADTENTWICKLUNG 2003, p. 32). Very limited research has been done on service traffic though. It is the objective of the research presented in this contribution to help closing this gap. Specifically the paper addresses the question whether and what corporate characteristics can be linked to specific travel patterns. The work is based on an analysis of travel behaviour of firms in Germany. The methodology applies descriptive and multivariate statistics, based on data from two national surveys. The analysis of this data allows the identification of specific travel patterns of service traffic and the development of a factor model that reflects the link between characteristics of firms and corporate travel behaviour. First results indicate a clear relation between traffic patterns, economic sectors and the geographical position of customers

Die Rolle von Unternehmen beim Verkehrsverhalten im Personenwirtschaftsverkehr

Eine steigende Anzahl Beschäftigter ist im Berufsalltag mobil. Zur Erbringung von Dienstleistungen und zum Zwecke von Geschäftsreisen führen Mitarbeiter regelmäßig Fahrten mit dem Motorisierten Individualverkehr durch. Der so entstehende Personenwirtschaftsverkehr belastet vor allem in den hochverdichteten Innenstadtbereichen die Infrastruktur, die Umwelt und die Gesellschaft. In der deutschen wie in der internationalen Forschung ist trotz seiner Relevanz wenig darüber bekannt, wie sich der Personenwirtschaftsverkehr im Straßenraum manifestiert und welche Faktoren das Verkehrsverhalten bestimmen. Die vorliegende Dissertationsschrift nutzt zwei empirische Datensätze um die Kenntnislücken zum Personenwirtschaftsverkehr zu schließen, die Studie ‚Kraftfahrzeugverkehr in Deutschland, KiD 2002‘ und die ‚Dienstleistungsverkehrsstudie, DLVS‘. Die neuen Erkenntnisse ermöglichen eine verbesserte Modellierung des (Personen-)Wirtschaftsverkehrs und erleichtern die Planung und Lenkung kommunaler (städtischer) Verkehre. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass zwischen vier charakteristischen Verkehrsverhalten unterschieden werden kann. Im Rahmen des Personenwirtschaftsverkehrs gibt es sowohl Tourenmuster, die sich durch wenige Stopps und eine geringe Verkehrsleistung auszeichnen als auch Fahrzeuge, die zahlreiche Ziele am Tag ansteuern und eine hohe Verkehrsbeteiligung aufweisen. Die statistischen Analysen belegen außerdem, dass sich die Tourenmuster von Fahrzeugen unterscheiden, die entweder ausschließlich dienstlich oder aber auch privat eingesetzt werden dürfen. Die Berechnung von multivariaten Regressionsmodellen beweist, dass sowohl interne Strukturfaktoren und interne Prozessfaktoren als auch externe Strukturfaktoren und externe Prozessfaktoren eine Rolle beim Verkehrsverhalten spielen. Das bedeutet, die unternehmensbezogenen Faktoren, vor allem aber die Unternehmensstrukturen, sind mit ausschlaggebend dafür, welches der vier Verkehrsverhalten Firmenfahrzeuge aufweisen.More and more employees are mobile during working hours. To provide services and for business trips, employees use motor vehicles regularly. The emerging service-related traffic burdens the infrastructure, the environment and the society, particularly in high density urban areas. Despite its relevance there is little German and international research on travel behavior of service-related traffic. Even less is known about what factors might influence tour characteristics of service-related traffic. To close this gap of knowledge this dissertation utilizes two data sets for empirical research, ‘Kraftfahrzeugverkehr in Deutschland, KiD 2002’ (‘Motor Vehicle Traffic in Germany’) and ‘Service-Related Traffic’. The findings allow enhanced commercial transport- and service-related traffic modeling and facilitate urban transport planning and direction. The empirical results show that four typical travel patterns can be differentiated. Against the background of service-related traffic there are on the one hand vehicles which are characterized by only a few stops and little road performance per day. On the other hand many cars visit numerous customers and participate a lot in traffic. Statistical analyses also prove that travel patterns differ, depending on an exclusive business or a permitted private use of corporate vehicles. The calculation of multivariate regression models shows that four corporate factor groups, namely internal structures and internal processes as well as external structures and external processes, play a role in travel behavior. This means that company-related factors, especially corporate structure, are decisive for corporate vehicles’ travel patterns

Evaluation of the myocardial function after atrial switch operation by transposition of the great arteries and the influence on the ventricular function

Die Vorhofumkehroperation nach Mustard oder Senning ist eine Methode zur Therapie der Transposition der großen Gefäße (TGA). Aufgrund der systemventrikulären Funktion der rechten Herzkammer stellt die rechtsventrikuläre Dysfunktion eine bedeutende Spätkomplikation nach atrialer Switch-Operation dar. Ein frühzeitiges Erkennen einer ventrikulären Funktionseinschränkung ist mittels MRT-Aufnahmen gut möglich. Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, mittels Phasenkontrast-MRT neben den allgemeinen Parametern, insbesondere der Ejektionsfraktion und Muskelmasse, die regionalen myokardialen Radialgeschwindigkeiten im rechten (RV) und linken Ventrikel (LV) der Patienten (n=22, mittleres Alter=18,1±4,2 Jahre) zu ermitteln und mit einem gesunden Probandenkollektiv (n=13, mittleres Alter=21,2±6,1 Jahre) zu vergleichen. Die Messungen der Radialgeschwindigkeiten erfolgten in beiden Kollektiven in der freien Außenwand des jeweiligen Ventrikels und im Interventrikularseptum (IVS), wobei das Myokard in vier regionale Abschnitte aufgeteilt wurde (Basis, mittventrikuläres Myokard, Apex und absolute Spitze). Zur Einschätzung der Myokardgeschwindigkeit wurden drei Parameter ermittelt: die S-, E- und A-Welle. Rechtsventrikulär ließ sich eine verminderte Auswurffraktion (EF) um 23,4 % bei den Patienten verzeichnen. Für die Muskelmasse im rechten Ventrikel konnte eine myokardiale Hypertrophie von 19,4 g/m² ermittelt werden. Bei der Auswertung der ventrikulären myokardialen Wandgeschwindigkeiten konnten für die rechte Herzkammer basal und mittventrikulär tendenziell verminderte, apikal und in der Herzspitze erhöhte mittlere Wandgeschwindigkeiten für alle drei Parameter gegenüber den Gesunden festgestellt werden. Dabei ließ sich eine Zunahme der Radialgeschwindigkeiten von basal in Richtung absolute Spitze, insbesondere im rechten Ventrikel des Patientenkollektives erkennen. Ein Vergleich zur Literatur ließen sich allgemein niedrigere Werte in unseren Ergebnissen erkennen, wobei die Vergleichsstudien nicht mit der MRT, sondern mittels Tissue Doppler Imaging durchgeführt wurden. Hierbei ist insbesondere die niedrigere zeitliche Auflösung der MRT im Vergleich zum TDI bei der Geschwindigkeitsanalyse zu berücksichtigen. Weiterhin wurde zum Teil nicht die Radialgeschwindigkeit, sondern die longitudinale Ausdehnung gemessen bzw. fehlte die Angabe über die Geschwindigkeitsausrichtung. Dabei sind lediglich Vergleichsuntersuchungen für die basale Region zu finden, für die anderen drei Bereiche existieren im Patientenkollektiv keine Studien. Insbesondere der Geschwindigkeitsanstieg in der Herzspitze kann daher nicht weiter eingeordnet werden. Zusammenfassend ließen sich radiale Geschwindigkeitsunterschiede im Patientenkollektiv nach einer Vorhofumkehroperation feststellen. Dabei zeigten sich unterschiedlich adaptierte Bereiche des Myokards, wobei insbesondere die Region der Herzspitze deutliche Geschwindigkeitserhöhungen aufwies. Auch schien die Schlagrichtung des Septums von Bedeutung zu sein. Insgesamt besteht weiterer Forschungsbedarf bezüglich dieser Problematik, um an größeren Fallzahlen und Kollektiven mit einer größeren Altersspanne die Auswirkungen einer Vorhofumkehroperation auf die Radialgeschwindigkeit und deren (regionale) Bedeutung für die kardiale Funktion weiter vertiefen zu können.The atrial switch operation after Mustard or Senning is a method for the treatment of transposition of great arteries (TGA). Due to the systemventricular function of the right ventricle, the right ventricular dysfunction plays an important role for late complication after atrial switch operation. Early recognition of ventricular function using MRI scans is quite possible. The aim of this study was, using phase-contrast MRI to messure general parameters, especially the ejection fraction and muscle mass, and the regional myocardial radial velocities in the right (RV) and left ventricle (LV) of patients (n = 22, mean age = 18.1 ± 4.2 years) and to compare the results with a healthy group (n = 13, mean age = 21.2 ± 6.1 years). The measurements of radial velocities were performed in both groups at the free outer wall of each ventricle and interventricularseptum (IVS). The myocardium was divided into four regional sections (base, middle of the ventricular myocardium, apex, and absolute apex). To messure the myocardial velocities three parameters were determined: the S-, E- and A-wave. The results show a reduced right ventricular ejection fraction (EF) of 23.4% in the patients group. For the muscle mass in the right ventricle a myocardial hypertrophy of 19.4 g/m² can be determined. The evaluation of the ventricular myocardial velocities shows for the right ventricle a decreased basal and midventricular velocity, in the apex and absolute apex an increase for all three parameters compared to the healthy. An increase in the radial velocities from the bases to the absolute apex could be recognized, in particular in the right ventricle of the patient collective. A comparison with the literature shows generally lower values seen in our results, but the comparative studies have been performed by tissue Doppler imaging and not with MRI, which we used for examination. Here in particular the lower temporal resolution of MRI compared to the TDI should be considered for the differences in the results of myocardial velocities. Furthermore, in some cases was not the radial velocity, but the longitudinal extension measured or the information about the velocity direction was not contained. Moreover the only comparative studies in the patient group that could be found in the literature show results for the myocardial velocities for the basal region not for the other section. In summary, radial velocity variations in the patient group could be found after an atrial switch operation. There was a difference in the adaptation of the myocardial sections, exspecially the region of the absolute apex showed a significant increase in the radial velocity. Overall, further research is necessary to learn more about the radial velocity and the role for the (regional) cardiac function

Electromobility For City Logistics - The Solution To Urban Transport Collaps? An Analysis Beyond Theory

Congestion within cities is a major problem of urban transport already, yet further traffic augmentation is expected over the coming years. Especially the distribution of goods within cities is responsible for a high percentage of emissions and noise of the overall emissions in towns. Furthermore, and in line with its Whitebook for Transport, the EU aims for achieving almost CO2-emission free city logistics by 2030. Electromobility is considered as one of the technologies that shall contribute to the realisation of this target. Yet little is known about user needs and user acceptance in regards to electromobility for city logistics. It is the aim of this research to contribute to closing this gap as it is essential for a successful introduction of electromobility for city logistics. As methodology empirical research is applied with a focus on the assessment of user behaviour, expectations and needs. Furthermore, whereas up to now most projects related to electromobility for city logistics are based on round-table deployment, this research is based on a multiple agent approach: By the use of extensive interviews, an in-depth analysis of user needs, user expectations and user acceptance of drivers of vehicles, purchasers of vehicles and customers of city logistics will be possible. The findings of this reflect current limitations of electromobility for city logistics. Furthermore, the findings contribute to support governments in developing steering tools for the use of alternative energies for vehicles

ICT Use in The Last Mile of Express Logistic Services - Evaluating The Effects on Urban Traffic

The European Union as well as the USA are aware of the environmental impacts of traffic. The usage of ICT is promoted as the basic technological strategy to reduce negative effects by relieving the road network capacity. Though it is hard to identify and evaluate the direct impact of ICT. As a project partner the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) - Institute of Transport Research (IVF) accompanies an implementation project of the German DHL (“SMART TRUCK”). The project focus is on two ‘intelligent’ vehicles equipped with RFID technology embedded in a modern communication and disposition systems. The aspired goal is to optimize urban and rural delivery by avoiding congestion and construction sites as well as by increasing the vehicles capacity utilization by changing from static to dynamic (and thus more flexible) route planning. The authors are going to present how the DLR-IVF is analyzing and evaluating status-quo and field test results under an economical and transport perspective