Long-term impacts of invasive species on a native top predator in a large lake system

1. Declining abundances of forage fish and the introduction and establishment of non-indigenous species have the potential to substantially alter resource and habitat exploitation by top predators in large lakes. 2. We measured stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) in field-collected and archived samples of Lake Ontario lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and five species of prey fish and compared current trophic relationships of this top predator with historical samples. 3. Relationships between δ15N and lake trout age were temporally consistent throughout Lake Ontario and confirmed the role of lake trout as a top predator in this food web. However, δ13C values for age classes of lake trout collected in 2008 ranged from 1.0 to 3.9‰ higher than those reported for the population sampled in 1992. 4. Isotope mixing models predicted that these changes in resource assimilation were owing to the replacement of rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) by round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in lake trout diet and increased reliance on carbon resources derived from nearshore production. This contrasts with the historical situation in Lake Ontario where δ13C values of the lake trout population were dominated by a reliance on offshore carbon production. 5. These results indicate a reduced capacity of the Lake Ontario offshore food web to support the energetic requirements of lake trout and that this top predator has become increasingly reliant on prey resources that are derived from nearshore carbon pathways

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Local Governments, Tribal Governments, and Service Delivery: A Unique Approach to Negotiated Problem Solving

There is a long history of conflict between states and Indian tribes. In recent years, considerable progress has been made in reducing this conflict in some areas, but service delivery remains an issue of growing tension. Since the 1990s the federal government has reduced funding for some Indian programs; funding has increased in a few programs but has not kept up with increases in demand. As a result, tribes are forced to rely ever more on state and local services to make up the difference. These new demands come at a time when many states are dealing with tight budgets. Some states have resisted this growing need for their services, despite the fact that Indians living on reservations are entitled to all the same services and benefits as any other citizen of a state. These disagreements are an important part of the very complex and convoluted relationship between states and tribes. This necessity for state and local service delivery on Indian reservations is having a dramatic impact on the American federalist system and changing the relationship between state, local, and tribal governments. There are 562 federally recognized Indian tribes, with 55.7 million acres of Indian trust land. Clearly, Indian tribes are an important part of the federalist system. The delivery of services to Indian people, especially those living on trust land, is a critical aspect of that system. Changes in both the demand and the delivery of state services have engendered considerable political conflict

GUBERNATORIAL INFLUENCE AND STATE BUREAUCRACY

Previous research has concentrated on differences in gubernatorial power across states. Relatively little research attention has been devoted to the sources of gubernatorial influence over state agencies. Based on data collected from state administrators in 1978, this study examines the effects of four sets of factors on the perceived influence of the governor over the state administrative apparatus. These sets are: formal powers of the governor, characteristics of the agencies, characteristics of the positions held by administrators, and personal characteristics of these officials. Results show that these factors account for nearly one-fourth of the variance in the influence of the governor over state agencies, as reported by agency heads.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

State administrators' opinions on administrative change, federal aid, federal relationships

The ACIR Library is composed of publications that study the interactions between different levels of government. This document addresses state administrators' opinions on administrative change, federal aid, and federal relationships