Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders

Double auction prediction markets have proven successful in large-scale applications such as elections and sporting events. Consequently, several large corporations have adopted these markets for smaller-scale internal applications where information may be complex and the number of traders is small. Using laboratory experiments, we test the performance of the double auction in complex environments with few traders and compare it to three alternative mechanisms. When information is complex we find that an iterated poll (or Delphi method) outperforms the double auction mechanism. We present five behavioral observations that may explain why the poll performs better in these settings

A METHOD COMPARISON OF FORCE PLATFORM AND ACCELEROMETER MEASURES IN JUMPING

The purpose of this study was to compare force calculated using accelerometer data from the SHIMMER device, with force platform data on countermovement and drop jumps. Twelve physically active adults performed 5 counter movement jumps and 5 drop jumps from a height of 0.30 m. An accelerometer was attached near the participant’s centre of mass and simultaneous force and acceleration data were obtained for the jumps. Minimum eccentric force and peak concentric force were calculated concurrently for countermovement jumps and peak landing forces were calculated concurrently for drop jumps. The results showed moderate to poor levels of agreement in forces and a consistent systematic bias between the results from the force platform and accelerometer

The Origin of Antarctic Precipitation: A Modeling Approach

Isotope concentrations in polar ice cores have long been used to estimate paleotemperatures. Underlying the use of this "isotope paleothermometer" is the assumption that the relationship between surface temperature and isotope concentration over time at a single geographical point is the same as that observed over space during the present-day climate. The validity of this assumption may in fact be compromised by several factors related to climate change. The specific factor studied in this paper involves the evaporative sources for polar precipitation. Climatic changes in the relative strengths of these sources would imply a need for a recalibration of the paleothermometer. To quantify such changes, we performed two GCM simulations, one of present-day climate and the other of the climate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), roughly 18000 years ago. Evaporative sources of Antarctic precipitation were established using special tracer diagnostics. Results suggest that polar precipitation during the LGM does indeed consist of (relatively) more water from tropical oceans, a direct reflection of the LGM's increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient and its increased sea ice extent, which reduces high latitude evaporation. This result implies that an uncalibrated ice core paleothermometer would produce LGM temperatures that are biased slightly low. Because LGM boundary conditions are still under debate, we performed a third GCM simulation using a modified set of LGM boundary conditions. Using this simulation gives some qualitatively similar results, though the tropical contribution is not quite as high. Uncertainties in the LGM boundary conditions does hamper success in calibrating the paleothermometer

Epithelial mechanobiology, skin wound healing, and the stem cell niche

AbstractSkin wound healing is a vital process that is important for re-establishing the epithelial barrier following disease or injury. Aberrant or delayed skin wound healing increases the risk of infection, causes patient morbidity, and may lead to the formation of scar tissue. One of the most important events in wound healing is coverage of the wound with a new epithelial layer. This occurs when keratinocytes at the wound periphery divide and migrate to re-populate the wound bed. Many approaches are under investigation to promote and expedite this process, including the topical application of growth factors and the addition of autologous and allogeneic tissue or cell grafts. The mechanical environment of the wound site is also of fundamental importance for the rate and quality of wound healing. It is known that mechanical stress can influence wound healing by affecting the behaviour of cells within the dermis, but it remains unclear how mechanical forces affect the healing epidermis. Tensile forces are known to affect the behaviour of cells within epithelia, however, and the material properties of extracellular matrices, such as substrate stiffness, have been shown to affect the morphology, proliferation, differentiation and migration of many different cell types. In this review we will introduce the structure of the skin and the process of wound healing. We will then discuss the evidence for the effect of tissue mechanics in re-epithelialisation and, in particular, on stem cell behaviour in the wound microenvironment and in intact skin. We will discuss how the elasticity, mechanical heterogeneity and topography of the wound extracellular matrix impact the rate and quality of wound healing, and how we may exploit this knowledge to expedite wound healing and mitigate scarring

A second polymorph of chlorido(hydroxy­diphenyl­phosphane)gold(I)

The title complex, [AuCl{(C6H5)2P(OH)-κP}] or [AuCl(C12H11OP)], contains two independent mol­ecules in the asymmetric unit and is a polymorph of a previously reported structure [Hollatz et al. (1999 ▶) J. Chem. Soc. Dalton Trans. pp. 111–114]. The crystal structure exhibits inter­molecular Au⋯Au inter­actions with alternate distances of 3.0112 (3) Å and 3.0375 (2) Å. The Cl—Au—P bond angle varies between different mol­ecular units, depending on the degree of influence of the intra­molecular the O—H⋯Cl hydrogen bond; the angle thus varies between negligible distortion from linearity at 179.23 (3)° and more significant distortion at 170.39 (4)°, which differs from the previously reported polymorph in which both these angles are approximately 170°. The Au—Cl [2.3366 (9) and 2.3131 (10)Å] and Au—P [2.2304 (10) and 2.2254 (10) Å] bond lengths vary slightly between the two independent mol­ecules but overall, the bond lengths are in good agreement with those in the previously reported polymorph

Web-Based Simulation: Evolution or Revolution?

ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, Vol. 10, No. 1, January 2000, Pages 3–17

»Filozofija i kršćanstvo« »Philosophia et christianita«

This work was undertaken during T.L. Stephens’s PhD studentship, supported by the Central England Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) Training Alliance (CENTA) [award reference: 1503848]. The authors would like to thank Nicolas Le Corvec and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful comments during the reviewing process. Additionally we would like to thank Craig Magee, Atsushi Yamaji, and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive reviews on an earlier version of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Spring-Summer Temperatures Since AD 1780 Reconstructed from Stable Oxygen Isotope Ratios in White Spruce Tree-Rings from the Mackenzie Delta, Northwestern Canada

High-latitude delta(exp 18)O archives deriving from meteoric water (e.g., tree-rings and ice-cores) can provide valuable information on past temperature variability, but stationarity of temperature signals in these archives depends on the stability of moisture source/trajectory and precipitation seasonality, both of which can be affected by atmospheric circulation changes. A tree-ring delta(exp 18)O record (AD 1780-2003) from the Mackenzie Delta is evaluated as a temperature proxy based on linear regression diagnostics. The primary source of moisture for this region is the North Pacific and, thus, North Pacific atmospheric circulation variability could potentially affect the tree-ring delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal. Over the instrumental period (AD 1892-2003), tree-ring delta(exp 18)O explained 29% of interannual variability in April-July minimum temperatures, and the explained variability increases substantially at lower-frequencies. A split-period calibration/verification analysis found the delta(exp 18)O-temperature relation was time-stable, which supported a temperature reconstruction back to AD 1780. The stability of the delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal indirectly implies the study region is insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, since North Pacific circulation was not constant over the calibration period. Simulations from the NASA-GISS ModelE isotope-enabled general circulation model confirm that meteoric delta(exp 18)O and precipitation seasonality in the study region are likely insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, highlighting the paleoclimatic value of tree-ring and possibly other delta(exp 18)O records from this region. Our delta(exp 18)O-based temperature reconstruction is the first of its kind in northwestern North America, and one of few worldwide, and provides a long-term context for evaluating recent climate warming in the Mackenzie Delta region