Something of a Paradox: The Curious Neglect of Agriculture in Development

This paper argues that investment in agriculture has a large and continuing developmental importance in terms of both economic growth and poverty reduction. Moreover, targeted public resources have proven to be indispensable in achieving these results. Both arguments are supported with novel analyses which update and strengthen the traditional case for agriculture-led development with public-sector involvement. But despite the strong case for agriculture-led development strategies, the authors find that over the last three decades the financial resources allocated towards this sector have strongly declined. It is suggested that a shift towards new development paradigms since 1980 might be a significant explanation for this apparent Agricultural Paradox. This conjecture is tested with data on market reform impacts, PRSP contents and analyses of the intellectual resources devoted to the study of agriculture in development by both practitioners and researchers. The authors conclude with a critical discussion of these disturbing trends.

Something of a Paradox: The Neglect of Agriculture in Economic Development

This paper argues that investment in agriculture has a large and continuing developmental importance in terms of both economic growth and poverty reduction. Moreover, targeted public resources have proven to be indispensable in achieving these results. Both arguments are supported with novel analyses which update and strengthen the traditional case for agriculture-led development with public-sector involvement. But despite the strong case for agriculture-led development strategies, the authors find that the financial resources allocated towards this sector have strongly declined over the last three decades, and they suggest that a shift towards new development paradigms since 1980 might be a significant explanation for this apparent Agricultural Paradox. This conjecture is tested with data on foreign aid, public expenditure, PRSP contents, and empirical analyses of the intellectual resources devoted to the study of agriculture in development by World Bank researchers. The authors conclude with a critical discussion of these disturbing trends.Agricultural Productivity, Economic Growth, Poverty Alleviation, Urban Biases, Public Expenditure, Foreign Aid, Washington Consensus., International Development,

Are India’s Gender Imbalances Inducing Higher Household Savings?

Consumer/Household Economics,

China's Growth Strategies

Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Political Economy,

Explaining Agricultural Productivity Levels and Growth: An International Perspective

With persistent population growth, a dwindling supply of arable land per capita, and the relatively high income elasticity of demand for food in developing countries, there is a growing need for food supply increases to originate from growth in productivity rather than expansions in inputs. In this paper the authors construct levels of total factor productivity in agriculture for 111 countries covering the years 1970 to 2000. Employing this data in panel and cross-sectional regressions, the authors seek to explain levels and trends in total factor productivity (TFP) in world agriculture, examining the relative roles of environmental and geographical factors, human capital, macroeconomic factors, technological processes resulting from globalization and the Green Revolution, and institutional factors such as measures of land inequality and proxies for urban biases in public and private expenditure. The authors conclude that, in addition to standard explanations of productivity improvements such as human capital, openness and environmental factors, both urban biases and inequality have been major impediments to successful rural development.

Urbanization and Fertility Rates in Ethiopia

Fertility rates are important determinants of both overall population growth and demographic transitions from high to low age dependency ratios, which in turn have important consequences for economic growth, poverty reduction, and improved health and nutrition outcomes. Ethiopia currently has one of the highest fertility rates in the world, although there are marked differences between rural and urban fertility rates. This paper explores the drivers of rural and urban fertility rates, including systematic tests of differences in key determinants. This further allows us to project fertility rates into the future based on alternative urbanization, economic growth, and education scenarios. Finally, we link these alternative projections with existing estimates of the benefits of fertility reductions on economic growth, nutrition, and poverty reductio

Rethinking the global food crisis

From 2003 to their peak in mid 2008, the nominal prices of maize and wheat roughly doubled, while those of rice tripled in a matter of months rather than years. Although fundamental factors were clearly responsible for shifting the world to a higher equilibrium price during this time, there is little doubt that when food prices peaked in June 2008, they soared well above the new equilibrium price. Numerous arguments have been proposed to explain overshooting, including financial speculation, depreciation of the United States (U.S.) dollar, low interest rates, and reductions in grain stocks. However, observations that international rice prices surged in response to export restrictions by India and Vietnam suggested that trade-related factors could be an important basis for overshooting, especially given the very tangible link between export volumes and export prices. In this paper, we revisit the trade story by closely examining monthly data from the largest export markets for rice (Thailand), wheat, maize and soybeans (the United States). In each case, we find that large surges in export volumes preceded the price surges. The presence of these demand surges, together with back-of-the-envelope estimates of their price impacts, suggest that trade events played a much larger and more pervasive role than previously thought. This further implies that improving the international grain markets should be a central focus of the international policy agenda going forward.equilibrium price, export markets, export prices, export restrictions, export volumes, international grain trade, panic purchases, world food crisis,

Happiness and the Human Development Index : the paradox of Australia

According to the well-being measure known as the U.N. Human Development Index, Australia now ranks 3rd in the world and higher than all other English-speaking nations. This paper questions that assessment. It reviews work on the economics of happiness, considers implications for policymakers, and explores where Australia lies in international subjective well-being rankings. Using new data on approximately 50,000 randomly sampled individuals from 35 nations, the paper shows that Australians have some of the lowest levels of job satisfaction in the world. Moreover, among the sub-sample of English-speaking nations, where a common language should help subjective measures to be reliable, Australia performs poorly on a range of happiness indicators. The paper discusses this paradox. Our purpose is not to reject HDI methods, but rather to argue that much remains to be understood in this area