Determining Structurally Identifiable Parameter Combinations Using Subset Profiling

Identifiability is a necessary condition for successful parameter estimation of dynamic system models. A major component of identifiability analysis is determining the identifiable parameter combinations, the functional forms for the dependencies between unidentifiable parameters. Identifiable combinations can help in model reparameterization and also in determining which parameters may be experimentally measured to recover model identifiability. Several numerical approaches to determining identifiability of differential equation models have been developed, however the question of determining identifiable combinations remains incompletely addressed. In this paper, we present a new approach which uses parameter subset selection methods based on the Fisher Information Matrix, together with the profile likelihood, to effectively estimate identifiable combinations. We demonstrate this approach on several example models in pharmacokinetics, cellular biology, and physiology

Linking Decision Theory and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: Tradeoffs Between Compliance and Efficacy for Waterborne Disease Interventions

Achieving health gains from the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals of universal coverage for water and sanitation will require interventions that can be widely adopted and maintained. Effectiveness—how an intervention performs based on actual use—as opposed to efficacy will therefore be central to evaluations of new and existing interventions. Incomplete compliance—when people do not always use the intervention and are therefore exposed to contamination—is thought to be responsible for the lower‐than‐expected risk reductions observed from water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions based on their efficacy at removing pathogens. We explicitly incorporated decision theory into a quantitative microbial risk assessment model. Specifically, we assume that the usability of household water treatment (HWT) devices (filters and chlorine) decreases as they become more efficacious due to issues such as taste or flow rates. Simulations were run to examine the tradeoff between device efficacy and usability. For most situations, HWT interventions that trade lower efficacy (i.e., remove less pathogens) for higher compliance (i.e., better usability) contribute substantial reductions in diarrheal disease risk compared to devices meeting current World Health Organization efficacy guidelines. Recommendations that take into account both the behavioral and microbiological properties of treatment devices are likely to be more effective at reducing the burden of diarrheal disease than current standards that only consider efficacy.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151809/1/risa13381.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151809/2/risa13381-sup-0001-Appendix.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151809/3/risa13381_am.pd

Conceptual Design of the Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (CHARIS) for the Subaru Telescope

Recent developments in high-contrast imaging techniques now make possible both imaging and spectroscopy of planets around nearby stars. We present the conceptual design of the Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (CHARIS), a lenslet-based, cryogenic integral field spectrograph (IFS) for imaging exoplanets on the Subaru telescope. The IFS will provide spectral information for 140x140 spatial elements over a 1.75 arcsecs x 1.75 arcsecs field of view (FOV). CHARIS will operate in the near infrared (lambda = 0.9 - 2.5 microns) and provide a spectral resolution of R = 14, 33, and 65 in three separate observing modes. Taking advantage of the adaptive optics systems and advanced coronagraphs (AO188 and SCExAO) on the Subaru telescope, CHARIS will provide sufficient contrast to obtain spectra of young self-luminous Jupiter-mass exoplanets. CHARIS is in the early design phases and is projected to have first light by the end of 2015. We report here on the current conceptual design of CHARIS and the design challenges

The Optical Design of CHARIS: An Exoplanet IFS for the Subaru Telescope

High-contrast imaging techniques now make possible both imaging and spectroscopy of planets around nearby stars. We present the optical design for the Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (CHARIS), a lenslet-based, cryogenic integral field spectrograph (IFS) for imaging exoplanets on the Subaru telescope. The IFS will provide spectral information for 138x138 spatial elements over a 2.07 arcsec x 2.07 arcsec field of view (FOV). CHARIS will operate in the near infrared (lambda = 1.15 - 2.5 microns) and will feature two spectral resolution modes of R = 18 (low-res mode) and R = 73 (high-res mode). Taking advantage of the Subaru telescope adaptive optics systems and coronagraphs (AO188 and SCExAO), CHARIS will provide sufficient contrast to obtain spectra of young self-luminous Jupiter-mass exoplanets. CHARIS will undergo CDR in October 2013 and is projected to have first light by the end of 2015. We report here on the current optical design of CHARIS and its unique innovations.Comment: 15 page

Searches for New Milky Way Satellites from the First Two Years of Data of the Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey: Discovery of Cetus~III

We present the results from a search for new Milky Way (MW) satellites from the first two years of data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Subaru Strategic Program (SSP) $\sim 300$~deg$^2$ and report the discovery of a highly compelling ultra-faint dwarf galaxy candidate in Cetus. This is the second ultra-faint dwarf we have discovered after Virgo~I reported in our previous paper. This satellite, Cetus~III, has been identified as a statistically significant (10.7$\sigma$) spatial overdensity of star-like objects, which are selected from a relevant isochrone filter designed for a metal-poor and old stellar population. This stellar system is located at a heliocentric distance of 251$^{+24}_{-11}$~kpc with a most likely absolute magnitude of $M_V = -2.4 \pm 0.6$~mag estimated from a Monte Carlo analysis. Cetus~III is extended with a half-light radius of $r_h = 90^{+42}_{-17}$~pc, suggesting that this is a faint dwarf satellite in the MW located beyond the detection limit of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Further spectroscopic studies are needed to assess the nature of this stellar system. We also revisit and update the parameters for Virgo~I finding $M_V = -0.33^{+0.75}_{-0.87}$~mag and $r_h = 47^{+19}_{-13}$~pc. Using simulations of $\Lambda$-dominated cold dark matter models, we predict that we should find one or two new MW satellites from $\sim 300$~deg$^2$ HSC-SSP data, in rough agreement with the discovery rate so far. The further survey and completion of HSC-SSP over $\sim 1,400$~deg$^2$ will provide robust insights into the missing satellites problem.Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in PASJ special issu

The Once and Future Andromeda Stream

The interaction between an accreting satellite and the Andromeda galaxy (M31) has been studied analytically and numerically, using a high-resolution N-body simulation with $4\times10^7$ particles. For the first time, we show the self-gravitating response of the disk, the bulge, and the dark matter halo of M31 to an accreting satellite. We reproduce the Stream and the shells at the East and West side of M31, by following the evolution of the collision 4 Gyr into the future, and show that recently discovered diffuse arcs on the south side of the minor axis are the remnants of a similar collision that occurred 3-4 Gyr earlier than the Stream event. The present day integrity of the M31 disk constrains the satellite mass to be $M \leq 5\times10^9 M_\odot$. The stars that were originally in the center of the satellite are now in the east shell. Therefore, observations in this region might reveal additional clues about the nature of satellite, such as the central core and any metallicity gradient.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJL; see http://www.isc.senshu-u.ac.jp/~thj0613/M31/M31.html for high-resolution figures and movi

Pion-Nucleon Scattering in a Large-N Sigma Model

We review the large-N_c approach to meson-baryon scattering, including recent interesting developments. We then study pion-nucleon scattering in a particular variant of the linear sigma-model, in which the couplings of the sigma and pi mesons to the nucleon are echoed by couplings to the entire tower of I=J baryons (including the Delta) as dictated by large-N_c group theory. We sum the complete set of multi-loop meson-exchange \pi N --> \pi N and \pi N --> \sigma N Feynman diagrams, to leading order in 1/N_c. The key idea, reviewed in detail, is that large-N_c allows the approximation of LOOP graphs by TREE graphs, so long as the loops contain at least one baryon leg; trees, in turn, can be summed by solving classical equations of motion. We exhibit the resulting partial-wave S-matrix and the rich nucleon and Delta resonance spectrum of this simple model, comparing not only to experiment but also to pion-nucleon scattering in the Skyrme model. The moral is that much of the detailed structure of the meson-baryon S-matrix which hitherto has been uncovered only with skyrmion methods, can also be described by models with explicit baryon fields, thanks to the 1/N_c expansion.Comment: This LaTeX file inputs the ReVTeX macropackage; figures accompany i