The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful. DISCUSSION: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome. SUMMARY: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care

Effects of epibiosis on consumer-prey interactions

In many benthic communities predators play a crucial role in the population dynamics of their prey. Surface characteristics of the prey are important for recognition and handling by the predator. Because the establishment of an epibiotic assemblage on the surface of a basibiont species creates a new interface between the epibiotized organism and its environment, we hypothesised that epibiosis should have an impact on consumer-prey interactions. In separate investigations, we assessed how epibionts on macroalgae affected the susceptibility of the latter to herbivory by the urchin Arbacia punctulata and how epibionts on the blue mussel Mytilus edulis affected its susceptibility to predation by the shore crab Carcinus maenas. Some epibionts strongly affected consumer feeding behavior. When epibionts were more attractive than their host, consumer pressure increased. When epibionts were less attractive than their host or when they were repellent, consumer pressure decreased. In systems that are controlled from the top-down, epibiosis can strongly influence community dynamics. For the Carcinus/Mytilus system that we studied, the insitu distribution of epibionts on mussels reflected the epibiosis-determined preferences of the predator. Both direct and indirect effects are involved in determining these epibiont-prey-consumer interactions

Estimating the burden of malaria in pregnancy: a case study from rural Madhya Pradesh, India

BACKGROUND: Malaria in pregnancy (MiP) is inadequately researched in India, and the burden is probably much higher than current estimates suggest. This paper models the burden of MiP and associated foetal losses and maternal deaths, in rural Madhya Pradesh, India. METHODS: Number of pregnancies per year was estimated from the number of births and an estimate of pregnancies that end in foetal loss. The prevalence of MiP, risk of foetal loss attributable to MiP and case fatality rate of MiP were obtained from the literature. The estimated total number of pregnancies was multiplied by the appropriate parameter to estimate the number of MiP cases, and foetal loss and maternal deaths attributable to MiP per year. A Monte Carlo simulation sensitivity analysis was done to assess plausibility of various estimates obtained from the literature. The burden of MiP in tribal women was explored by incorporating the variable prevalence of malaria in tribal and non-tribal populations and in forested and non-forested regions within Madhya Pradesh. RESULTS: Estimates of MiP cases in rural Madhya Pradesh based on the model parameter values found in the literature ranged from 183,000-1.5 million per year, with 73,000-629,000 lost foetuses and 1,500-12,600 maternal deaths attributable to MiP. The Monte Carlo simulation gave a more plausible estimate of 220,000 MiP cases per year (inter-quartile range (IQR): 136,000-305,000), 95,800 lost foetuses (IQR: 56,800-147,600) and 1,000 maternal deaths (IQR: 650-1,600). Tribal women living in forested areas bore 30% of the burden of MiP in Madhya Pradesh, while constituting 18% of the population. CONCLUSION: Although the estimates are uncertain, they suggest MiP is a significant public health problem in rural Madhya Pradesh, affecting many thousands of women and that reducing the MiP burden should be a priority

TGFbeta induces apoptosis and EMT in primary mouse hepatocytes independently of p53, p21Cip1 or Rb status

Melville Trust for the Care and Cure of Cancer to SP and SS.Background: TGF beta has pleiotropic effects that range from regulation of proliferation and apoptosis to morphological changes and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). Some evidence suggests that these effects may be interconnected. We have recently reported that P53, P21(Cip1) and pRB, three critical regulators of the G1/S transition are variably involved in TGF beta-induced cell cycle arrest in hepatocytes. As these proteins are also involved in the regulation of apoptosis in many circumstances, we investigated their contribution to other relevant TGF beta-induced effects, namely apoptosis and EMT, and examined how the various processes were interrelated. Methods: Primary mouse hepatocytes deficient in p53, p21 and/or Rb, singly or in combination were treated with TGF beta for 24 to 96 hours. Apoptosis was quantified according to morphology and by immunostaining for cleavedcapsase 3. Epithelial and mesenchymal marker expression was studied using immunocytochemistry and real time PCR. Results: We found that TGF beta similarly induced morphological changes regardless of genotype and independently of proliferation index or sensitivity to inhibition of proliferation by TGF beta. Morphological changes were accompanied by decrease in E-cadherin and increased Snail expression but the mesenchymal markers (N-cadherin, SMA alpha and Vimentin) studied remained unchanged. TGF beta induced high levels of apoptosis in p53-/-, Rb-/-, p21(cip1)-/- and control hepatocytes although with slight differences in kinetics. This was unrelated to proliferation or changes in morphology and loss of cell-cell adhesion. However, hepatocytes deficient in both p53 and p21(cip1)were less sensitive to TGF beta-induced apoptosis. Conclusion: Although p53, p21(Cip1) and pRb are well known regulators of both proliferation and apoptosis in response to a multitude of stresses, we conclude that they are critical for TGF beta-driven inhibition of hepatocytes proliferation, but only slightly modulate TGF beta-induced apoptosis. This effect may depend on other parameters such as proliferation and the presence of other regulatory proteins as suggested by the consequences of p53, p21(Cip1) double deficiency. Similarly, p53, p21(Cip1) and pRB deficiency had no effect on the morphological changes and loss of cell adhesion which is thought to be critical for metastasis. This indicates that possible association of these genes with metastasis potential would be unlikely to involve TGF beta-induced EMT.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Free distribution of insecticidal bed nets improves possession and preferential use by households and is equitable: findings from two cross-sectional surveys in thirteen malaria endemic districts of Bangladesh

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>BRAC, an indigenous non-governmental development organization (NGO), has been implementing a programme to prevent and control malaria in the 13 malaria-endemic districts of Bangladesh since 2007. One of the critical preventive interventions is the distribution of insecticidal bed nets (long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, LLINs and insecticide-treated ordinary nets, ITNs) to the community free of cost. This study aimed to assess progress in the possession, preferential use, and knowledge on use of the LLIN/ITNs including the programme's avowed pro-poor inclination one and three and half years after intervention began.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A convenient sampling strategy based on malaria endemicity in the districts was adopted. First, thirty <it>upazila </it>(sub-district, with a population around 250,000)<it>s </it>were selected at random, with high prevalent districts contributing more <it>upazilas</it>; second, from each <it>upazila</it>, one (2008) to two (2011) villages (covered by insecticidal bed net distribution programme) were selected. From each village, households that had either one under-five child and/or a pregnant woman were included in the survey, one household being included only once. Data were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In all, 3,760 households in 2008 and 7,895 households in 2011 were surveyed for collecting relevant information. Proportion of households with at least one LLIN, and at least one LLIN/ITN increased (22-59 to 62-67% and 22-64% to 74-76% respectively) over time, including increase in the mean number of LLIN/ITNs per household (≤ 1 to 1 +). The programme achieved > 80% coverage in sleeping under an LLIN/ITN in the case of under-five children and pregnant women, especially in the high-endemic districts. Knowledge regarding critical time of hanging the net also increased over time (7-22 to 44-54%), but remained low. The pro-poor inclination of the programme is reflected in the status of relevant indicators according to self-rated poverty status of the households.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There has been a substantial improvement in possession and usage of insecticidal bed nets especially for the two most vulnerable groups (under-five children and pregnant women), including a reduction of gaps between the high and low endemic districts, and the deficit and non-deficit households during the study period.</p

Inhibitory activity of a standardized elderberry liquid extract against clinically-relevant human respiratory bacterial pathogens and influenza A and B viruses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Black elderberries (<it>Sambucus nigra </it>L.) are well known as supportive agents against common cold and influenza. It is further known that bacterial super-infection during an influenza virus (IV) infection can lead to severe pneumonia. We have analyzed a standardized elderberry extract (Rubini, BerryPharma AG) for its antimicrobial and antiviral activity using the microtitre broth micro-dilution assay against three Gram-positive bacteria and one Gram-negative bacteria responsible for infections of the upper respiratory tract, as well as cell culture experiments for two different strains of influenza virus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The antimicrobial activity of the elderberry extract was determined by bacterial growth experiments in liquid cultures using the extract at concentrations of 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%. The inhibitory effects were determined by plating the bacteria on agar plates. In addition, the inhibitory potential of the extract on the propagation of human pathogenic H5N1-type influenza A virus isolated from a patient and an influenza B virus strain was investigated using MTT and focus assays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the first time, it was shown that a standardized elderberry liquid extract possesses antimicrobial activity against both Gram-positive bacteria of <it>Streptococcus pyogenes </it>and group C and G <it>Streptococci</it>, and the Gram-negative bacterium <it>Branhamella catarrhalis </it>in liquid cultures. The liquid extract also displays an inhibitory effect on the propagation of human pathogenic influenza viruses.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Rubini elderberry liquid extract is active against human pathogenic bacteria as well as influenza viruses. The activities shown suggest that additional and alternative approaches to combat infections might be provided by this natural product.</p

Tobacco and the risk of acute leukaemia in adults

Self-reported smoking histories were collected during face-to-face interviews with 807 patients with acute leukaemia and 1593 age- and sex-matched controls. Individuals who had smoked regularly at some time during their lives were more likely to develop acute leukaemia than those who had never smoked (odds ratio (OR) = 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0–1.4). The association was strongest for current smokers, defined here as smoking 2 years before diagnosis (OR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.1–1.7). With respect to the numbers of years smoked, risk estimates were raised in all groups except those who had smoked for fewer than 10 years. Similarly, the odds ratio decreased as the number of years ‘stopped smoking’ increased, falling to one amongst those who had given up smoking for more than 10 years. No significant linear trends were found, however, with either the numbers of years smoked or the numbers of years stopped smoking, and no significant differences were found between AML and ALL. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Relative gut lengths of coral reef butterflyfishes (Pisces: Chaetodontidae)

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Coral Reefs 30 (2011): 1005-1010, doi:10.1007/s00338-011-0791-x.Variation in gut length of closely related animals is known to generally be a good predictor of dietary habits. We examined gut length in 28 species of butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae), which encompass a wide range of dietary types (planktivores, omnivores, corallivores). We found general dietary patterns to be a good predictor of relative gut length, although we found high variation among groups and covariance with body size. The longest gut lengths are found in species that exclusively feed on the living tissue of corals, while the shortest gut length is found in a planktivorous species. Although we tried to control for phylogeny, corallivory has arisen multiple times in this family, confounding our analyses. The butterflyfishes, a speciose family with a wide range of dietary habits, may nonetheless provide an ideal system for future work studying gut physiology associated with specialisation and foraging behaviours.This project was funded in part by a National Science Foundation (USA) Graduate Research Fellowship to MLB.2012-06-1

Global Distribution of Outbreaks of Water-Associated Infectious Diseases

Water is essential for maintaining life on Earth but can also serve as a media for many pathogenic organisms, causing a high disease burden globally. However, how the global distribution of water-associated infectious pathogens/diseases looks like and how such distribution is related to possible social and environmental factors remain largely unknown. In this study, we compiled a database on distribution, biology, and epidemiology of water-associated infectious diseases and collected data on population density, annual accumulated temperature, surface water areas, average annual precipitation, and per capita GDP at the global scale. From the database we extracted reported outbreak events from 1991 to 2008 and developed models to explore the association between the distribution of these outbreaks and social and environmental factors. A total of1,428 outbreaks had been reported and this number only reflected ‘the tip of the iceberg’ of the much bigger problem. We found that the outbreaks of water-associated infectious diseases are significantly correlated with social and environmental factors and that all regions are affected disproportionately by different categories of diseases. Relative risk maps are generated to show ‘hotspots’ of risks for different diseases. Despite certain limitations, the findings may be instrumental for future studies and prioritizing health resources