Time of emergence of climate signals

The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss

A Safety Case Pattern for Model-Based Development Approach

In this paper, a safety case pattern is introduced to facilitate the presentation of a correctness argument for a system implemented using formal methods in the development process. We took advantage of our experience in constructing a safety case for the Patient Controlled Analgesic (PCA) infusion pump, to define this safety case pattern. The proposed pattern is appropriate to be instantiated within the safety cases constructed for systems that are developed by applying model-based approaches

A spectrum of ozone from 760 to 5800 cm-1

An atlas of O3 lines between 760 and 5800/cm obtained from a low pressure, long-path-length sample of O3 at 296K is presented. Many of the line centers are marked and their positions tabulated

Inlet spillage drag tests and numerical flow-field analysis at subsonic and transonic speeds of a 1/8-scale, two-dimensional, external-compression, variable-geometry, supersonic inlet configuration

Accurate spillage drag and pressure data are presented for a realistic supersonic inlet configuration. Results are compared with predictions from a finite-differencing, inviscid analysis computer procedure. The analytical technique shows good promise for the evaluation of inlet drag, but necessary refinements were identified. A detailed description of the analytical procedure is contained in the Appendix

An Obstruction to Quantization of the Sphere

In the standard example of strict deformation quantization of the symplectic sphere $S^2$, the set of allowed values of the quantization parameter $\hbar$ is not connected; indeed, it is almost discrete. Li recently constructed a class of examples (including $S^2$) in which $\hbar$ can take any value in an interval, but these examples are badly behaved. Here, I identify a natural additional axiom for strict deformation quantization and prove that it implies that the parameter set for quantizing $S^2$ is never connected.Comment: 23 page. v2: changed sign conventio