Communications platform payload definition study, executive summary

Large geostationary communications platforms have been investigated in a number of studies since 1974 as a possible means to more effectively utilize the geostationary orbital arc and electromagnetic spectrum and to reduce overall satellite communications system costs. This NASA Lewis sponsored study addresses the commercial feasibility of various communications platform payload concepts circa 1998. It defines promising payload concepts, estimates recurring costs and identifies critical technologies needed to permit eventual commercialization. Ten communications service aggregation scenarios describing potential groupings of services were developed for a range of conditions. Payload concepts were defined for four of these scenarios: (1) Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS), meet 100% of CONUS plus Canada demand with a single platform; (2) Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) (Trunking + Customer Premises Service (CPS), meet 20% of CONUS demands; (3) FSS (Trunking + video distribution), 10 to 13% of CONUS demand; and (4) FSS (20% of demand) + Inter Satellite Links (ISL) + TDRSS/TDAS Data Distribution

Temperature dependence of surface stress across an order-disorder transition: p(1x2)O/W(110)

Strain relaxations of a p(1x2) ordered oxygen layer on W(110) are measured as a function of temperature across the disordering transition using low-energy electron diffraction. The measured strains approach values of 0.027 in the [1-10] and -0.053 in the [001] direction. On the basis of the measured strain relaxations, we give quantitative information on temperature-dependent surface stress using the results of ab initio calculations. From the surface formation energy for different strains, determined by first-principles calculations, we estimate that surface stress changes from -1.1 for the ordered phase to -0.2N/m for the disordered one along [1-10], and from 5.1 to 3.4 N/m along [001]. Moreover, our observation that the strains scale inversely with domain size confirms that the strain relaxation takes place at the domain boundaries.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

Hierarchy of Temporal Responses of Multivariate Self-Excited Epidemic Processes

We present the first exact analysis of some of the temporal properties of multivariate self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson processes, which constitute powerful representations of a large variety of systems with bursty events, for which past activity triggers future activity. The term "multivariate" refers to the property that events come in different types, with possibly different intra- and inter-triggering abilities. We develop the general formalism of the multivariate generating moment function for the cumulative number of first-generation and of all generation events triggered by a given mother event (the "shock") as a function of the current time $t$. This corresponds to studying the response function of the process. A variety of different systems have been analyzed. In particular, for systems in which triggering between events of different types proceeds through a one-dimension directed or symmetric chain of influence in type space, we report a novel hierarchy of intermediate asymptotic power law decays $\sim 1/t^{1-(m+1)\theta}$ of the rate of triggered events as a function of the distance $m$ of the events to the initial shock in the type space, where $0 < \theta <1$ for the relevant long-memory processes characterizing many natural and social systems. The richness of the generated time dynamics comes from the cascades of intermediate events of possibly different kinds, unfolding via a kind of inter-breeding genealogy.Comment: 40 pages, 8 figure

Can carbon capture and storage unlock `unburnable carbon'?

The concept of ‘unburnable carbon’ emerged in 2011, and stems from the observation that if all known fossil fuel reserves are extracted and converted to CO 2 (unabated), it would exceed the carbon budget and have a very significant effect on the climate. Therefore, if global warming is to be limited to the COP21 target, some of the known fossil fuel reserves should remain unburnt. Sev eral recent reports have highlighted the scale of the challenge, drawing on scenarios of climate change mitigation and their implications for the projected consump tion of fossil fuels. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical and available mitigation opportunity and its contribution to timely and cost - effective decarbonis atio n of the energy system is widely recognised. However, while some st udies have considered the role of CCS in enabling access to more fossil fuels, no detailed analysis on this issue has been undertaken. Th is paper presents a critical review focusing on the technologies that can be applied to en able access to, or ‘unlock’, fossil fuel reserves in a way that will meet climate targets and mitigate climate change. It also quantifies the impact of CCS in unlocking unburnable carbon in the first and in the second half of the century

Nonlinear theory and tests of earthquake recurrence times

We develop an efficient numerical scheme to solve accurately the set of nonlinear integral equations derived previously in (Saichev and Sornette, 2007), which describes the distribution of inter-event times in the framework of a general model of earthquake clustering with long memory. Detailed comparisons between the linear and nonlinear versions of the theory and direct synthetic catalogs show that the nonlinear theory provides an excellent fit to the synthetic catalogs, while there are significant biases resulting from the use of the linear approximation. We then address the suggestions proposed by some authors to use the empirical distribution of inter-event times to obtain a better determination of the so-called clustering parameter. Our theory and tests against synthetic and empirical catalogs find a rather dramatic lack of power for the distribution of inter-event times to distinguish between quite different sets of parameters, casting doubt on the usefulness of this statistics for the specific purpose of identifying the clustering parameter.Comment: 31 pages including 11 figure

On the criticality of inferred models

Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct the pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to a phase transition. On one side, we show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher Information) is directly related to the model's susceptibility. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. On the other, this region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time-scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, version to appear in JSTA

The appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis

Comparing emissions scenarios is an essential part of mitigation analysis, as climate targets can be met in various ways with different economic, energy system and co-benefit implications. Typically, a central ‘reference scenario’ acts as a point of comparison, and often this has been a no policy baseline with no explicit mitigative action taken. The use of such baselines is under increasing scrutiny, raising a wider question around the appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis. In this Perspective, we assess three critical issues relevant to the use of reference scenarios, demonstrating how different policy contexts merit the use of different scenarios. We provide recommendations to the modelling community on best practice in the creation, use and communication of reference scenarios

Cost reductions in renewables can substantially erode the value of carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways

Tackling climate change requires a rapid transition to net-zero energy systems. A variety of different technologies could contribute to this transition, and uncertainty remains over their relative role and value. A growing school of thought argues that rapid cost reductions in renewables reduce the need for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in mitigation pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore how the value of CCS is affected by cost reductions in solar photovoltaics, onshore, and offshore wind. Low-cost renewables could erode the value of CCS by 15%–96% across different energy sectors. Renewables directly compete with CCS, accelerate power sector decarbonization, and enable greater electrification of end-use sectors. CCS has greatest value and resilience to low-cost renewables in sustainable bioenergy/industrial applications, with limited value in hydrogen/electricity generation. This suggests that targeted, rather than blanket, CCS deployment represents the best strategy for achieving the Paris Agreement goals

The contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation to achieving long-term temperature goals

In the latest (fifth) assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) non-CO2 emssions accounted for 28% of total GHG emissions in 2010, when measured on the basis of their global warming potential (relative to CO2) over a 100-year and nitrous oxide (N2O) accounting for about half of all non-CO2 GHGs. With population and incomes increasing, especially in emerging economies, these emissions could grow significantly in the future. Other major sources of non-CO2 GHGs are fugitive CH4 from the extraction and distribution of fossil fuels, N2O from industrial production of nitric and adipic acid, as well as fluorinated gases (F-gases) from a range of industrial manufacturing and product uses. This paper analyses the emissions and cost impacts of mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a global level, in scenarios which are focused on meeting a range of long-term temperature goals (LTTGs). The paper demonstrates how an integrated assessment model (TIAM-Grantham) representing CO2 emissions (and their mitigation) from the fossil fuel combustion and industrial sectors is coupled with a model covering non-CO2 emissions (GAINS) in order to provide a complete picture of GHG emissions in a reference scenario in which there is no mitigation of either CO2 or non-CO2 gases, as well as in scenarios in which both CO2 and non-CO2 gases are mitigated in order to achieve different LTTGs