Policy strategies and challenges for climate change mitigation in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector. OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers No. 149

This study uses GLOBIOM ‒ the most detailed global economic model of agriculture, land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ‒ to assess the effectiveness of different policies in cutting net emissions from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, with a view to helping limit long-term global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2°C. Trade-offs between emission reductions and impacts on food producers, consumers and government budgets are also evaluated for each policy package. A full complement of policy options is deployed globally across AFOLU, comprising emission taxes for emitting AFOLU activities and subsidies rewarding carbon sequestration. Using a carbon price consistent with the 2°C target (1.5°C target), this is projected to mitigate 8 GtCO2 eq/yr (12 GtCO2 eq/yr) in 2050, representing 89% (129%) reduction in net AFOLU emissions, and 12% (21%) of total anthropogenic GHG emissions. Nearly two-thirds of the net emission reductions are from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) component of AFOLU, mostly from reduced deforestation. A global carbon tax on AFOLU is found to be twice as effective in lowering emissions as an equivalently priced emission abatement subsidy because the latter keeps high emitting producers in business. However, a tax has trade-offs in terms of lower agricultural production and food consumption, which a subsidy avoids. A shift to lower emission diets by consumers has a much smaller impact on reducing agricultural emissions than any of the policy packages involving taxes on emissions

Dynamic Merge of the Global and Local Models for Sustainable Land Use Planning with Regard for Global Projections from GLOBIOM and Local Technical–Economic Feasibility and Resource Constraints

In order to conduct research at required spatial resolution, we propose a model fusion involving interlinked calculations of regional projections by the global dynamic model GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and robust dynamic downscaling model, based on cross-entropy principle, for deriving spatially resolved projections. The proposed procedure allows incorporating data from satellite images, statistics, expert opinions, as well as data from global land use models. In numerous case studies in China and Ukraine, the approach allowed to estimate local land use and land use change projections corresponding to real trends and expectations. The disaggregated data and projections were used in national models for planning sustainable land use and agricultural development

Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected

Sustainability, Peak oil

none4openDe leo Federica, Pier paolo Miglietta, Stefania Massari, Marcello RubertiDE LEO, Federica; Miglietta, PIER PAOLO; Massari, Stefania; Ruberti, Marcell

Land-based climate change mitigation potentials within the agenda for sustainable development

Even though enormous expectations for greenhouse gas mitigation in the land use sector exist at the same time worries about potential implications for sustainable development have been raised as many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are closely tied to developments in the sector. Here we assess the implications of achieving selected key SDG indicators for Zero Hunger, Clean Water and Sanitation, Responsible Consumption and Production, and Life on Land on the land-based climate change mitigation potential. We find that protecting highly biodiverse ecosystems has profound impacts on biomass potentials (−30% at >12 US dollar per gigajoule) while other SDGs mainly affect greenhouse gas abatement potentials. Achieving SDGs delivers synergies with greenhouse gas abatement and may even in the absence of additional mitigation policies allow to realize up to 25% of the expected greenhouse gas abatement from land use required to stay on track with the 1.5 °C target until 2050. Future land use mitigation policies should consider and take advantage of these synergies across SDGs

Adherence to EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations for health and sustainability in the Gambia

Facilitating dietary change is pivotal to improving population health, increasing food system resilience, and minimizing adverse impacts on the environment, but assessment of the current 'status-quo' and identification of bottlenecks for improvement has been lacking to date. We assessed deviation of the Gambian diet from the EAT-Lancet guidelines for healthy and sustainable diets and identified leverage points to improve nutritional and planetary health. We analysed the 2015/16 Gambian Integrated Household Survey dataset comprising food consumption data from 12 713 households. Consumption of different food groups was compared against the EAT-Lancet reference diet targets to assess deviation from the guidelines. We computed a 'sustainable and healthy diet index (SHDI)' based on deviation of different food groups from the EAT-Lancet recommendations and modelled the socio-economic and geographic determinants of households that achieved higher scores on this index, using multivariable mixed effects regression. The average Gambian diet had very low adherence to EAT-Lancet recommendations. The diet was dominated by refined grains and added sugars which exceeded the recommendations. SHDI scores for nutritionally important food groups such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, dairy, poultry, and beef and lamb were low. Household characteristics associated with higher SHDI scores included: being a female-headed household, having a relatively small household size, having a schooled head of the household, having a high wealth index, and residing in an urban settlement. Furthermore, diets reported in the dry season and households with high crop production diversity showed increased adherence to the targets. While average Gambian diets include lower amounts of food groups with harmful environmental footprint, they are also inadequate in healthy food groups and are high in sugar. There are opportunities to improve diets without increasing their environmental footprint by focusing on the substitution of refined grains by wholegrains, reducing sugar and increasing fruit and vegetables consumption

Integrated Management of Land Use Systems under Systemic Risks and Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model

Interdependencies among land use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relationships. Disruption of this network may catalyse systemic risks affecting food, energy, water and environmental security (FEWES) worldwide. We describe the conceptual development, expansion and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analysed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of scenario-dependent outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust outcomes that leave the systems better-off, independently of which scenario applies. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimisation model that is critical for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex-ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex-post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. As an example, the model is applied to the question of optimal storage facilities, as buffers for production shortfalls, to meet regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relationship with Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) risk measures. A Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to illustrate the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model approach

Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price

The severe water scarcity (SWS) concept allows for consistent analysis of the supply and demand for water sourced grain production worldwide. Thus, the primary advantage of using SWS is its ability to simultaneously accommodate the spatial extent and temporal persistence of droughts using climatic data. The SWS concept was extended here to drivers of global grain prices using past SWS events and prices of three dominant grain crops: wheat, rice and maize. A significant relation between the SWS affected area and the prices of wheat was confirmed. The past price–SWS association was then used to project future wheat prices considering likely climate change scenarios until 2050 and expected SWS extent. The projected wheat prices increase with increasing SWS area that is in turn a function of greenhouse gas emissions. The need to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is again reinforced assuming the SWS-price relation for wheat is unaltered

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies