204 research outputs found
Comparisons of Supergranule Characteristics During the Solar Minima of Cycles 22/23 and 23/24
Supergranulation is a component of solar convection that manifests itself on
the photosphere as a cellular network of around 35 Mm across, with a turnover
lifetime of 1-2 days. It is strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic
field. The horizontal, divergent flows within supergranule cells carry local
field lines to the cell boundaries, while the rotational properties of
supergranule upflows may contribute to the restoration of the poloidal field as
part of the dynamo mechanism that controls the solar cycle. The solar minimum
at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity
and its extended length. It is of interest to study whether the convective
phenomena that influences the solar magnetic field during this time differed in
character to periods of previous minima. This study investigates three
characteristics (velocity components, sizes and lifetimes) of solar
supergranulation. Comparisons of these characteristics are made between the
minima of cycles 22/23 and 23/24 using MDI Doppler data from 1996 and 2008,
respectively. It is found that whereas the lifetimes are equal during both
epochs (around 18 h), the sizes are larger in 1996 (35.9 +/- 0.3 Mm) than in
2008 (35.0 +/- 0.3 Mm), while the dominant horizontal velocity flows are weaker
(139 +/- 1 m/s in 1996; 141 +/- 1 m/s in 2008). Although numerical differences
are seen, they are not conclusive proof of the most recent minimum being
inherently unusual.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures. Solar Physics, in pres
A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones
The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is
determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar
rotation from May 1874 to June 2011. When these centroid positions are plotted
and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears
to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a
function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are
plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then
most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear.
The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to
determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times
of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative
to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence
upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in
its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no
significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of
variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave
mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the
equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.Comment: 12 pages, 7 color figure
Is Cycle 24 the Beginning of a Dalton-Like Minimum?
The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way
to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of
spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that
spotless days do not disappear abruptly in the transition towards an active
sun. A comparison with past cycles indicates that the ongoing accumulation of
spotless days is comparable to that of cycle 5 near the Dalton minimum and to
that of cycles 12, 14 and 15. It also suggests that the ongoing cycle has as
much as 20 \pm 8 spotless days left, from July 2010, before it reaches the next
solar maximum. The last spotless day is predicted to be in December 2012, with
an uncertainty of 11 months. This trend may serve as input to the solar dynamo
theories.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. The final publication is available at
http://www.springerlink.co
Solar Polar Fields During Cycles 21 --- 23: Correlation with Meridional Flows
We have examined polar magnetic fields for the last three solar cycles,
{}, cycles 21, 22 and 23 using NSO Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms.
In addition, we have used SoHO/MDI magnetograms to derive the polar fields
during cycle 23. Both Kitt Peak and MDI data at high latitudes
(78--90) in both solar hemispheres show a significant
drop in the absolute value of polar fields from the late declining phase of the
solar cycle 22 to the maximum of the solar cycle 23. We find that long term
changes in the absolute value of the polar field, in cycle 23, is well
correlated with changes in meridional flow speeds that have been reported
recently. We discuss the implication of this in influencing the extremely
prolonged minimum experienced at the start of the current cycle 24 and in
forecasting the behaviour of future solar cycles.Comment: 4 Figures 11 pages; Revised version under review in Solar Physic
Can surface flux transport account for the weak polar field in cycle 23?
To reproduce the weak magnetic field on the polar caps of the Sun observed
during the declining phase of cycle 23 poses a challenge to surface flux
transport models since this cycle has not been particularly weak. We use a
well-calibrated model to evaluate the parameter changes required to obtain
simulated polar fields and open flux that are consistent with the observations.
We find that the low polar field of cycle 23 could be reproduced by an increase
of the meridional flow by 55% in the last cycle. Alternatively, a decrease of
the mean tilt angle of sunspot groups by 28% would also lead to a similarly low
polar field, but cause a delay of the polar field reversals by 1.5 years in
comparison to the observations.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, Space Science Reviews, accepte
Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24
Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group
data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I),
has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg
latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of
-1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar
cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of
the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the
areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern
hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the
time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the
amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or
- 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude
of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south
asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with
the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically
significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the
amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and
we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we
found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship,
say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south
difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of
a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7
for the amplitude of cycle 24.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, Published in Solar Physics 252, 419-439 (2008
The G-O Rule and Waldmeier Effect in the Variations of the Numbers of Large and Small Sunspot Groups
We have analysed the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network
(SOON) sunspot group data during the period of 1874-2011 and determined
variations in the annual numbers (counts) of the small, large and big sunspot
groups (these classifications are made on the basis of the maximum areas of the
sunspot groups). We found that the amplitude of an even-numbered cycle of the
number of large groups is smaller than that of its immediately following
odd-numbered cycle. This is consistent with the well known Gnevyshev and Ohl
rule or G-O rule of solar cycles, generally described by using the Zurich
sunspot number (Rz). During cycles 12-21 the G-O rule holds good for the
variation in the number of small groups also, but it is violated by cycle pair
(22, 23) as in the case of Rz. This behaviour of the variations in the small
groups is largely responsible for the anomalous behaviour of Rz in cycle pair
(22, 23). It is also found that the amplitude of an odd-numbered cycle of the
number of small groups is larger than that of its immediately following
even-numbered cycle. This can be called as `reverse G-O rule'. In the case of
the number of the big groups, both cycle pairs (12, 13) and (22, 23) violated
the G-O rule. In many cycles the positions of the peaks of the small, large,
and big groups are different and considerably differ with respect to the
corresponding positions of the Rz peaks. In the case of cycle 23, the
corresponding cycles of the small and large groups are largely symmetric/less
asymmetric (Waldmeier effect is weak/absent) with their maxima taking place two
years later than that of Rz. The corresponding cycle of the big groups is more
asymmetric (strong Waldmeier effect) with its maximum epoch taking place at the
same time as that of Rz.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, accepted by Solar Physic
Comparison of large-scale flows on the Sun measured by time-distance helioseismology and local correlation tracking technique
We present a direct comparison between two different techniques time-distance
helioseismology and a local correlation tracking method for measuring mass
flows in the solar photosphere and in a near-surface layer: We applied both
methods to the same dataset (MDI high-cadence Dopplergrams covering almost the
entire Carrington rotation 1974) and compared the results. We found that after
necessary corrections, the vector flow fields obtained by these techniques are
very similar. The median difference between directions of corresponding vectors
is 24 degrees, and the correlation coefficients of the results for mean zonal
and meridional flows are 0.98 and 0.88 respectively. The largest discrepancies
are found in areas of small velocities where the inaccuracies of the computed
vectors play a significant role. The good agreement of these two methods
increases confidence in the reliability of large-scale synoptic maps obtained
by them.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, just before acceptance in Solar Physic
Long-Term Variations in the Growth and Decay Rates of Sunspot Groups
Using the combined Greenwich (1874-1976) and Solar Optical Observatories
Network (1977-2009) data on sunspot groups, we study the long-term variations
in the mean daily rates of growth and decay of sunspot groups. We find that the
minimum and the maximum values of the annually averaged daily mean growth rates
are ~52% per day and ~183% per day, respectively, whereas the corresponding
values of the annually averaged daily mean decay rates are ~21% per day and
~44% per day, respectively. The average value (over the period 1874-2009) of
the growth rate is about 70% more than that of the decay rate. The growth and
the decay rates vary by about 35% and 13%, respectively, on a 60-year
time-scale. From the beginning of Cycle 23 the growth rate is substantially
decreased and near the end (2007-2008) the growth rate is lowest in the past
about 100 years.Comment: 1 table, 13 figures, accepted by Solar Physic
The phase relation between sunspot numbers and soft X-ray flares
To better understand long-term flare activity, we present a statistical study
on soft X-ray flares from May 1976 to May 2008. It is found that the smoothed
monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very
noticeable time lag of 13, 8, and 8 months in cycle 21 respectively with
respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. There is no time lag between
the sunspot numbers and M-class flares in cycle 22. However, there is a
one-month time lag for C-class flares and a one-month time lead for X-class
flares with regard to sunspot numbers in cycle 22. For cycle 23, the smoothed
monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very
noticeable time lag of one month, 5 months, and 21 months respectively with
respect to sunspot numbers. If we take the three types of flares together, the
smoothed monthly peak fluxes of soft X-ray flares have a time lag of 9 months
in cycle 21, no time lag in cycle 22 and a characteristic time lag of 5 months
in cycle 23 with respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Furthermore,
the correlation coefficients of the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of M-class and
X-class flares and the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers are higher in cycle 22
than those in cycles 21 and 23. The correlation coefficients between the three
kinds of soft X-ray flares in cycle 22 are higher than those in cycles 21 and
23. These findings may be instructive in predicting C-class, M-class, and
X-class flares regarding sunspot numbers in the next cycle and the physical
processes of energy storage and dissipation in the corona.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space
Scienc
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