Assessing global resource use and greenhouse emissions to 2050, with ambitious resource efficiency and climate mitigation policies

Achieving sustainable development requires the decoupling of natural resource use and environmental pressures from economic growth and improvements in living standards. G7 leaders and others have called for improved resource efficiency, along with inclusive economic growth and deep cuts in global greenhouse emissions. However, the outlooks for and interactions between global natural resource use, resource efficiency, economic growth and greenhouse emissions are not well understood. We use a novel multi-regional modeling framework to develop projections to 2050 under existing trends and three policy scenarios. We find that resource efficiency could provide pro-growth pro-environment policies with global benefits of USD $2.4 trillion in 2050, and ease the politics of shifting towards sustainability. Under existing trends, resource extraction is projected to increase 119% from 2015 to 2050, from 84 to 184 billion tonnes per annum, while greenhouse gas emissions increase 41%, both driven by the value of global economic activity more than doubling. Resource efficiency and greenhouse abatement slow the growth of global resource extraction, so that in 2050 it is up to 28% lower than in existing trends. Resource efficiency reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 15–20% in 2050, with global emissions falling to 63% below 2015 levels when combined with a 2 °C emissions pathway. In contrast to greenhouse abatement, resource efficiency boosts near-term economic growth. These economic gains more than offset the near-term costs of shifting to a 2 °C emissions pathway, resulting in emissions in 2050 well below current levels, slower growth in resource extractions, and faster economic growth

Governance issues in developing and implementing offsets for water management benefits: Can preliminary evaluation guide implementation effectiveness?

This article explores governance issues in developing innovative pollutant offset programs by focusing on a case study being piloted at the Gisborne Recycled Water Plant in Jacksons Creek, a rural sub-catchment of the Maribyrnong River north of Melbourne, Australia. The paper offers preliminary lessons from the ongoing design and anticipated challenges facing this innovative program based on reflections from the literature and project progress to-date. This case exemplifies a form of adaptive governance – an approach well suited to achieving broad sustainability objectives – and for which an early assessment is both appropriate and opportune. Adaptive governance is characterized by governmental collaboration with civil society groups, social learning through public participation, and experimentation leading to more flexible policy outcomes. Early assessment affords the possibility of mid-course corrections, drawing on experience acquired elsewhere. We contend that the approach being developed in Victoria through this pilot program has implications beyond the use of recycled wastewater for achieving various social objectives. It may also contribute to the development of an expansive water quality offset framework applicable to point source discharges, nonpoint source pollution, and sewerage overspills. Moreover, the approach can be applied to design of offset systems elsewhere – with appropriate economic savings and effective application to multiple water quality challenges if potential problems are discerned early

An analysis of Australia's carbon pollution reduction scheme

The authors review the decision-making since the Labour Government came into office (November 2007). The Australian Government’s ‘Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme’ White Paper (15 December 2008) proposes that an Australian Emissions Trading Scheme (AETS) be implemented in mid-2010. Acknowledging that the scheme is comprehensive, the paper finds that in many cases, Australia will take a softer approach to climate change through the AETS than the European Union ETS(EUETS). The paper assesses key issues in the White Paper such as emissions reduction targets, GHG coverage, sectoral coverage, inclusion of unlimited quantities of offsets from Kyoto international markets and exclusion of deforestation activities

Resource Efficiency: Potential and Economic Implications

Despite enormous progress in the past decades towards improving human prosperity and well-being, this has come at the lasting cost of degradation of the natural environment and depletion of natural resources. Meeting the needs of a growing and increasingly affluent population, will require natural resource extraction to increase from 85 to 186 billion tonnes by 2050. This can cause irreversible environmental damage and endanger the capacity of Earth to continue to provide resources which are essential for human survival and development. Analysis in the report shows that policies and initiatives to improve resource efficiency and tackle climate change can reduce global resource extraction by up to 28 per cent while also boosting the value of world economic activity by 1 per cent in 2050, against the baseline. Such policy actions can also cut global greenhouse gas emissions by around 60 per cent in 2050 relative to 2015 levels. This report has been produced by the UNEP’s International Resource Panel in response to a request by leaders of the G7 nations in the context of efforts to promote resource efficiency as a core element of sustainable development. The report conducts a rigorous survey to assess and articulate the prospects and solutions for resource efficiency. It considers how more efficient use of resources can contribute to economic growth, employment and development, at the same time as reducing the world’s use of materials, energy, biomass and water, and the resulting environmental impacts. The report documents many examples of best practices for increasing the resource efficiency of different sectors from countries around the world. The challenge for policy-makers is to learn from and scale up these good practices, and to conceive and implement a set of transformative policies that will enable countries to reap the associated social, environmental and economic benefits. Ambitious action to use resources in a more efficient and sustainable manner can help place the world on the right track to meet its commitments under the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development and the Paris Climate Change Agreement, and thereby to realise a more equitable and sustainable future

The Effect of Carbon Credits on Savanna Land Management and Priorities for Biodiversity Conservation

Carbon finance offers the potential to change land management and conservation planning priorities. We develop a novel approach to planning for improved land management to conserve biodiversity while utilizing potential revenue from carbon biosequestration. We apply our approach in northern Australia's tropical savanna, a region of global significance for biodiversity and carbon storage, both of which are threatened by current fire and grazing regimes. Our approach aims to identify priority locations for protecting species and vegetation communities by retaining existing vegetation and managing fire and grazing regimes at a minimum cost. We explore the impact of accounting for potential carbon revenue (using a carbon price of US$14 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent) on priority areas for conservation and the impact of explicitly protecting carbon stocks in addition to biodiversity. Our results show that improved management can potentially raise approximately US$5 per hectare per year in carbon revenue and prevent the release of 1–2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over approximately 90 years. This revenue could be used to reduce the costs of improved land management by three quarters or double the number of biodiversity targets achieved and meet carbon storage targets for the same cost. These results are based on generalised cost and carbon data; more comprehensive applications will rely on fine scale, site-specific data and a supportive policy environment. Our research illustrates that the duel objective of conserving biodiversity and reducing the release of greenhouse gases offers important opportunities for cost-effective land management investments