Common Cause Failure Modeling: Aerospace Versus Nuclear

Aggregate nuclear plant failure data is used to produce generic common-cause factors that are specifically for use in the common-cause failure models of NUREG/CR-5485. Furthermore, the models presented in NUREG/CR-5485 are specifically designed to incorporate two significantly distinct assumptions about the methods of surveillance testing from whence this aggregate failure data came. What are the implications of using these NUREG generic factors to model the common-cause failures of aerospace systems? Herein, the implications of using the NUREG generic factors in the modeling of aerospace systems are investigated in detail and strong recommendations for modeling the common-cause failures of aerospace systems are given

Applying Model-based Diagnosis to a Rapid Propellant Loading System

The overall objective of the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Rapid Propellant Loading (RPL) Program is to develop a launch vehicle, payload and ground support equipment that can support a rapid propellant load and launch within one hour. NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has been funded by AFRL to develop hardware and software to demonstrate this capability. The key features of the software would be the ability to recognize and adapt to failures in the physical hardware components, advise operators of equipment faults and workarounds, and put the system in a safe configuration if unable to fly. In December 2008 NASA KSC and NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) demonstrated model based simulation and diagnosis capabilities for a scaled-down configuration of the RPL hardware. In this paper we present a description of the model-based technologies that were included as part of this demonstration and the results that were achieved. In continuation of this work we are currently testing the technologies on a simulation of the complete RPL system. Later in the year, when the RPL hardware is ready, we will be integrating these technologies with the real-time operation of the system to provide live state estimates. In future years we will be developing the capability to recover from faulty conditions via redundancy and reconfiguration

Particle Size Specific Magnetic Properties Across the Norwegian‐Greenland Seas: Insights Into the Influence of Sediment Source and Texture on Bulk Magnetic Records

We make fundamental observations of the particle size variability of magnetic properties from 71 core tops that span the southern Greenland and Norwegian Seas. These data provide the first detailed regional characterization of how bulk magnetic properties vary with sediment texture, sediment source, and sediment transport. Magnetic susceptibility (MS) and hysteresis parameters were measured on the bulk sediment and the five constituent sediment particle size fractions (clay, fine silt, medium silt, coarse silt, and sand). The median MS value of the medium silt size fraction is ~3–5 times higher than that of the sand and clay size fractions and results in a strong sensitivity of bulk MS to sediment texture. Hysteresis properties of the clay size fraction are relatively homogeneous and contrast that silt and sand size fractions which show regional differences across the study area. These coarser fractions are more transport limited and using medium silt hysteresis measurements and low temperature MS behavior we establish three endmembers that effectively explain the variability observed across the region. We model the response of bulk magnetic properties to changes in sediment texture and suggest that variations in sediment source are required to explain the bulk magnetic property variability observed in cores across the southern Greenland and Norwegian Seas. These findings imply that sediment source has a greater influence on driving bulk magnetic property variability across this region than has previously been assumed

New invasive Nemertean species (Cephalothrix Simula) in England with high levels of tetrodotoxin and a microbiome linked to toxin metabolism

The marine nemertean Cephalothrix simula originates from the Pacific Ocean but in recent years has been discovered in northern Europe. The species has been associated with high levels of the marine neurotoxin Tetrodotoxin, traditionally associated with Pufferfish Poisoning. This study reports the first discovery of two organisms of C. simula in the UK, showing the geographical extent of this species is wider than originally described. Species identification was initially conducted morphologically, with confirmation by Cox 1 DNA sequencing. 16S gene sequencing enabled the taxonomic assignment of the microbiome, showing the prevalence of a large number of bacterial genera previously associated with TTX production including Alteromonas, Vibrio and Pseudomonas. LC-MS/MS analysis of the nemertean tissue revealed the presence of multiple analogues of TTX, dominated by the parent TTX, with a total toxin concentration quantified at 54 µg TTX per g of tissue. Pseudomonas luteola isolated from C. simula, together with Vibrio alginolyticus from the native nemertean Tubulanus annulatus, were cultured at low temperature and both found to contain TTX. Overall, this paper confirms the high toxicity of a newly discovered invasive nemertean species with links to toxin-producing marine bacteria and the potential risk to human safety. Further work is required to assess the geographical extent and toxicity range of C. simula along the UK coast in order to properly gauge the potential impacts on the environment and human safety

Andean drought and glacial retreat tied to Greenland warming during the last glacial period

Abrupt warming events recorded in Greenland ice cores known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) interstadials are linked to changes in tropical circulation during the last glacial cycle. Corresponding variations in South American summer monsoon (SASM) strength are documented, most commonly, in isotopic records from speleothems, but less is known about how these changes affected precipitation and Andean glacier mass balance. Here we present a sediment record spanning the last ~50 ka from Lake Junín (Peru) in the tropical Andes that has sufficient chronologic precision to document abrupt climatic events on a centennial-millennial time scale. DO events involved the near-complete disappearance of glaciers below 4700 masl in the eastern Andean cordillera and major reductions in the level of Peru’s second largest lake. Our results reveal the magnitude of the hydroclimatic disruptions in the highest reaches of the Amazon Basin that were caused by a weakening of the SASM during abrupt arctic warming. Accentuated warming in the Arctic could lead to significant reductions in the precipitation-evaporation balance of the southern tropical Andes with deleterious effects on this densely populated region of South America

Andean drought and glacial retreat tied to Greenland warming during the last glacial period

Abrupt warming events recorded in Greenland ice cores known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) interstadials are linked to changes in tropical circulation during the last glacial cycle. Corresponding variations in South American summer monsoon (SASM) strength are documented, most commonly, in isotopic records from speleothems, but less is known about how these changes affected precipitation and Andean glacier mass balance. Here we present a sediment record spanning the last ~50 ka from Lake Junín (Peru) in the tropical Andes that has sufficient chronologic precision to document abrupt climatic events on a centennial-millennial time scale. DO events involved the near-complete disappearance of glaciers below 4700 masl in the eastern Andean cordillera and major reductions in the level of Peru’s second largest lake. Our results reveal the magnitude of the hydroclimatic disruptions in the highest reaches of the Amazon Basin that were caused by a weakening of the SASM during abrupt arctic warming. Accentuated warming in the Arctic could lead to significant reductions in the precipitation-evaporation balance of the southern tropical Andes with deleterious effects on this densely populated region of South America

U-Th dating of lake sediments: Lessons from the 700 ka sediment record of Lake Junín, Peru

Deep sediment cores from long-lived lake basins are fundamental records of paleoenvironmental history, but the power of these reconstructions has been often limited by poor age control. Uranium-thorium (U-Th) dating has the potential to fill a gap in current geochronological tools available for such sediment archives. We present our systematic approach to U-Th date carbonate-rich sediments from the ∼100 m drill core from Lake Junín, Peru. The results form the foundation of an age-depth model spanning ∼700 kyrs. High uranium concentrations (0.3–4 ppm) of these sediments allow us to date smaller amounts of material, giving us the opportunity to improve sample selection by avoiding detrital contamination, the greatest factor limiting the success of previous U-Th dating efforts in other lake basins. Despite this advantage, the dates from 174 analyses on 55 bulk carbonate samples reveal significant scatter that cannot be resolved with traditional isochrons, suggesting that at least some of the sediments have not remained closed systems. To understand the source of noise in the geochronological data, we first apply threshold criteria that screen samples by their U/Th ratio, reproducibility, and δ²³⁴U_(initial) value. We then compare these results with facies types, trace element concentrations, carbonate and total organic carbon content, color reflectance, mineralogy, and ostracode shell color to investigate the causes of open system behavior. Alongside simulations of the isotopic evolution of our samples, we find that the greatest impediment to U-Th dating of these sediments is not detrital contamination, but rather post-depositional remobilization of uranium. Examining U-Th data in these contexts, we identify samples that have likely experienced the least amount of alteration, and use dates from those samples as constraints for the age-depth model. Our work has several lessons for future attempts to U-Th date lake sediments, namely that geologic context is equally as important as the accuracy and precision of analytical measurements. In addition, we caution that significant geologic scatter may remain undetected if not for labor intensive tests of reproducibility achieved through replication. As a result of this work, the deep sediment core from Lake Junín is the only continuous record in the tropical Andes spanning multiple glacial cycles that is constrained entirely by independent radiometric dates

A revised Plio-Pleistocene age model and paleoceanography of the northeastern Caribbean Sea: IODP Site U1396 off Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Site U1396 was piston cored as a part of Integrated Ocean Drilling Project Expedition 340 to establish a long record for Lesser Antilles volcanism. A ~150 m sediment succession was recovered from three holes on a bathymetric high ~33 km southwest of Montserrat. A series of shipboard and newly-generated chronostratigraphic tools (biostratigraphy, magnetostratigraphy, astrochronology, and stable isotope chemostratigraphy) were employed to generate an integrated age model. Two possible chronostratigraphic interpretations for the Brunhes chron are presented, with hypotheses to explain the discrepancies seen between this study and Wall-Palmer et al. (2014). The recent Wade et al. (2011) planktic foraminiferal biostratigraphic calibration is tested, revealing good agreement between primary datums observed at Site U1396 and calibrated ages, but significant mismatches for some secondary datums. Sedimentation rates are calculated, both including and excluding the contribution of discrete volcanic sediment layers within the succession. Rates are found to be ‘pulsed’ or highly variable within the Pliocene interval, declining through the 1.5-2.4 Ma interval, and then lower through the Pleistocene. Different explanations for the trends in the sedimentation rates are discussed, including orbitally-forced biogenic production spikes, elevated contributions of cryptotephra (dispersed ash), and changes in bottom water sources and flow rates with increased winnowing in the area of Site U1396 into the Pleistocene