Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis

Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cash prices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given the recent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassesses past recommendations about the best length of moving average to use in forecasting basis. This research compares practical preharvest and storage period basis forecasts for hard wheat, soft wheat, corn and soybeans to identify the optimal amount of historical information to include in moving average forecasts. Only with preharvest hard wheat forecasts are the best moving averages longer than 3 years. The differences in forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are small and in most cases the differences are not statistically significant. The recommendation is to use longer moving averages during time periods (or at locations) when there have been no structural changes and use last year’s basis after it appears that a structural change has occurred.Basis forecast, grain, Law of One Price, moving averages, structural change, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

Registration of ‘Hallam’ Wheat

‘Hallam’ (Reg. no. CV-983, PI 638790) is a hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar developed cooperatively by the Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station and the USDA-ARS and released in 2005 by the developing institutions. Hallam was released primarily for its superior adaptation to rainfed wheat production systems in eastern Nebraska. The name Hallam was chosen to honor Hallam, NE, a town and its people rebuilding after a tornado. Hallam was selected from the cross ‘Brule’ (Schmidt et al., 1983)/‘Bennett’ (Schmidt et al., 1981)//‘Niobrara’ (Baenziger et al., 1996) that was made in 1992. The F1 generation was grown in the greenhouse and the F2 to F3 generations were advanced using the bulk breeding method in the field at Mead, NE. In 1995, single F3:4 rows were planted for selection. Hallam was selected in the F4 and there was no further selection thereafter. Hallam was evaluated as NE98471 in Nebraska yield nurseries starting in 1999, in the Northern Regional Performance Nursery in 2001 and 2002, and in Nebraska cultivar performance trials from 2002 to 2004. In the Nebraska cultivar performance trials, it was narrowly adapted and performs best in eastern Nebraska. The average Nebraska rainfed yield of Hallam of 4110 kg ha-1 (41 environments from 2002 to 2004) was greater than the yields of ‘Wahoo’ (4030 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2002), ‘Alliance’ (3880 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 1995), and ‘Harry’ (4000 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2004b), but was lower than ‘Millennium’ (4180 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2001) and ‘Wesley’ (4210 kg ha-1; Peterson et al., 2001). In its primary area of adaptation (eastern Nebraska), Hallam has yielded 4540 kg ha-1 (five environments), which was greater than Wesley (4150 kg ha-1), Millennium (4250 kg ha-1), Wahoo (3940 kg ha-1), and Alliance (3900 kg ha21). In the Northern Regional Performance Nursery, Hallam ranked 14th of 30 in 2001 (12 environments) and fourth of 25 entries in 2002 (13 environments) and averaged 100 kg ha-1 more grain yield than ‘Nekota’ (Haley et al., 1996). Hallam is not recommended for use in irrigated production systems where other wheat cultivars with superior performance, especially with better straw strength (described below), would be recommended. Other measurements of performance from comparison trials show that Hallam is moderately early in maturity (142 d after January 1, five environments), about 2.5 d and 1.2 d earlier flowering than Millennium and Wesley, respectively. Hallam is a semidwarf wheat cultivar. Hallam has a medium short coleoptile (46 mm), as expected for a semidwarf wheat cultivar, and is shorter than ‘Goodstreak’ (61 mm; Baenziger et al., 2004a) and slightly longer than semidwarf wheat cultivars such as Harry (36 mm). The mature plant height of Hallam (86 cm) is 3 cm shorter than Millennium and 6 cm taller than Wesley (41 environments). Hallam has moderate straw strength (45% lodged), similar to Wahoo (46% lodged), but worse than Wesley (34% lodged) in those environments (3) where severe lodging was found. The winter hardiness of Hallamis good to very good, similar to ‘Abilene’ (PI 511307) and comparable to other winter wheat cultivars adapted and commonly grown in Nebraska

Registration of ‘Hallam’ Wheat

‘Hallam’ (Reg. no. CV-983, PI 638790) is a hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar developed cooperatively by the Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station and the USDA-ARS and released in 2005 by the developing institutions. Hallam was released primarily for its superior adaptation to rainfed wheat production systems in eastern Nebraska. The name Hallam was chosen to honor Hallam, NE, a town and its people rebuilding after a tornado. Hallam was selected from the cross ‘Brule’ (Schmidt et al., 1983)/‘Bennett’ (Schmidt et al., 1981)//‘Niobrara’ (Baenziger et al., 1996) that was made in 1992. The F1 generation was grown in the greenhouse and the F2 to F3 generations were advanced using the bulk breeding method in the field at Mead, NE. In 1995, single F3:4 rows were planted for selection. Hallam was selected in the F4 and there was no further selection thereafter. Hallam was evaluated as NE98471 in Nebraska yield nurseries starting in 1999, in the Northern Regional Performance Nursery in 2001 and 2002, and in Nebraska cultivar performance trials from 2002 to 2004. In the Nebraska cultivar performance trials, it was narrowly adapted and performs best in eastern Nebraska. The average Nebraska rainfed yield of Hallam of 4110 kg ha-1 (41 environments from 2002 to 2004) was greater than the yields of ‘Wahoo’ (4030 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2002), ‘Alliance’ (3880 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 1995), and ‘Harry’ (4000 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2004b), but was lower than ‘Millennium’ (4180 kg ha-1; Baenziger et al., 2001) and ‘Wesley’ (4210 kg ha-1; Peterson et al., 2001). In its primary area of adaptation (eastern Nebraska), Hallam has yielded 4540 kg ha-1 (five environments), which was greater than Wesley (4150 kg ha-1), Millennium (4250 kg ha-1), Wahoo (3940 kg ha-1), and Alliance (3900 kg ha21). In the Northern Regional Performance Nursery, Hallam ranked 14th of 30 in 2001 (12 environments) and fourth of 25 entries in 2002 (13 environments) and averaged 100 kg ha-1 more grain yield than ‘Nekota’ (Haley et al., 1996). Hallam is not recommended for use in irrigated production systems where other wheat cultivars with superior performance, especially with better straw strength (described below), would be recommended. Other measurements of performance from comparison trials show that Hallam is moderately early in maturity (142 d after January 1, five environments), about 2.5 d and 1.2 d earlier flowering than Millennium and Wesley, respectively. Hallam is a semidwarf wheat cultivar. Hallam has a medium short coleoptile (46 mm), as expected for a semidwarf wheat cultivar, and is shorter than ‘Goodstreak’ (61 mm; Baenziger et al., 2004a) and slightly longer than semidwarf wheat cultivars such as Harry (36 mm). The mature plant height of Hallam (86 cm) is 3 cm shorter than Millennium and 6 cm taller than Wesley (41 environments). Hallam has moderate straw strength (45% lodged), similar to Wahoo (46% lodged), but worse than Wesley (34% lodged) in those environments (3) where severe lodging was found. The winter hardiness of Hallamis good to very good, similar to ‘Abilene’ (PI 511307) and comparable to other winter wheat cultivars adapted and commonly grown in Nebraska

Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis

The question addressed in this study is which length of historical moving average provides the best forecast of futures basis. Differences in observed forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are usually less than a cent per bushel, and most are not statistically significant. Further, the search for an optimal length of moving average may be futile since the optimal length depends on how much structural change has occurred. Our recommendation is to use moving averages when there has been no structural change and to use last year’s basis or an alternative approach if the forecaster perceives that a structural change has occurred

Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis

Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cash prices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given the recent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassesses past recommendations about the best length of moving average to use in forecasting basis. This research compares practical preharvest and storage period basis forecasts for hard wheat, soft wheat, corn and soybeans to identify the optimal amount of historical information to include in moving average forecasts. Only with preharvest hard wheat forecasts are the best moving averages longer than 3 years. The differences in forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are small and in most cases the differences are not statistically significant. The recommendation is to use longer moving averages during time periods (or at locations) when there have been no structural changes and use last year’s basis after it appears that a structural change has occurred

Effects of Processing Temperature on ReCrete Polyurethane Foam

Research is conducted to determine the effect of processing temperature on some of the physical and mechanical properties of a polyurethane foam called ReCrete. The polyurethane foaming process is manipulated to change the foam\u27s density, chemistry, and mechanical properties. There is a 30-min period after ReCrete components are mixed when the materials are still undergoing significant chemical reaction. Researchers manipulate these chemical reactions by changing the environmental temperature during this process. This study investigates the effect of processing temperature on the chemistry and the resulting mechanical properties for a polyurethane foam system molded in aluminum cylinders and boxes. Processing temperature is varied from 25°C to 85°C. Researchers show that the processing temperature has a significant effect on ReCrete chemistry and density. The average density decreases by 19% over this temperature range. The chemistry, in turn, affects the static and dynamic mechanical properties. The axial compressive modulus and strength decrease by 24 and 16%, respectively. The chemistry changes that results from higher processing temperatures produce foam that is less rigid in compression, but tougher and more flexible. The dynamic flexural failure strength increases by 38% when the processing temperature is increased from 25°C to 85°C. Foam processed at 85°C has significantly greater resistance to brittle failure under impact

Registration of ‘Wahoo’ Wheat

‘Wahoo’ (Reg. no. CV-920, PI 619098) is a hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar developed cooperatively by the Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station and the USDA-ARS and released in 2000 by the developing institutions and the Wyoming Agricultural Experiment Station. Wahoo was released primarily for its superior adaptation to rainfed (syn. nonirrigated) wheat production regions in eastern Nebraska and broad adaptation to rainfed wheat production regions in Wyoming and Nebraska. Where it is adapted, Wahoo should be a good replacement cultivar for ‘Arapahoe’ (Baenziger et al., 1989). Wahoo is genetically complementary to ‘2137’, ‘Alliance’, ‘Buckskin’, ‘Jagger’, ‘Pronghorn’, and ‘Windstar’. It is noncomplementary to ‘Abilene’ (PI 511307), Arapahoe, ‘Culver’, ‘Millennium’, ‘Niobrara’, and ‘Vista’. Wahoo was selected from the cross Arapahoe*2/Abilene, which was made in 1988. The F1 was grown greenhouse and the F2 and the to F3 generations were advanced by the bulk breeding method at Mead, NE. Wahoo is an F3:4 line that was visually selected for its phenotypic uniformity and perceived agronomic merit, winter survival, maturity, and general resistance to diseases observed in the field. From the F5 to release, the line was advanced with yearly rouging to remove phenotypic variants. Wahoo was evaluated as NE94654 in Nebraska yield nurseries starting in 1995, in the Northern Regional Performance Nursery in 1998 and 1999, and in Nebraska cultivar performance trials in 1999 and 2000. In the Nebraska cultivar performance trials, it has performed well throughout most of Nebraska and Wyoming, yet is best adapted to eastern Nebraska. The average Nebraska rainfed yield of Wahoo of 3620 kg ha−1 (27 environments) was greater than the yields of Alliance (3550 kg ha−1), Culver (3510 kg ha−1), and Millennium (3580 kg ha−1). In Wyoming, Wahoo yielded an average of 2590 kg ha−1 (9 environments), which was superior to Buckskin (2390 kg ha−1) and Pronghorn (2380 kg ha−1). Wahoo was tested in the Northern Regional Performance Nursery in 1998 and 1999. It ranked 16th of 28 entries in 1998 (17 environments) and 6th of 29 entries in 1999 (18 environments) and averaged 225 kg ha−1 more yield than Abilene. Wahoo has not performed well under irrigation and is not recommended for use in irrigated productions systems

Registration of ‘Cougar’ Wheat

Cougar (Reg. no. CV-900, PI 613098) is a hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar developed cooperatively by the Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station and the USDA-ARS and released in 2000. Cougar was selected from the cross NE85707/\u27Thunderbird\u27 which was made in 1987. The pedigree of NE85707 is ‘Warrior’*5/‘Agent’//‘Kavkaz’/4/NE63218/‘Kenya 58’/3/‘Newthatch’/2* CTMH//‘Ponca’/*2 ‘Cheyenne’. The pedigree of CTMH is Cheyenne-‘Tenmarq’-‘Mediterranean’-‘Hope’, where the order of the crosses is unknown. The pedigree of NE63218 is believed to be CI 12500//‘Red Chief’/Ponca/3/Cheyenne. The pedigree of CI 12500 is ‘Nebraska No. 60’//Mediterranean/Hope. The F1 to F3 generations were advanced using the bulk breeding method. Cougar is an F3-derived line that was selected in the F4 generation. Cougar was released primarily for its very long coleoptile (116 mm, similar to ‘Scout 66’) with exceptional straw strength (superior to ‘2137’ and ‘Wesley’), traits which have value in southern Nebraska. Cougar is an awned, white-glumed cultivar. Its field appearance is most similar to Thunderbird and ‘Big Dawg’. After heading, the canopy is open and upright. The flag leaf is erect and twisted at the boot stage. The foliage is green with a slight blue cast and a waxy bloom at anthesis. The leaves are glabrous. The spike is tapering in shape, moderately long to long, and middense. The glume is short and wide, and the glume shoulder is square. The beak is moderately short in length with an acuminate tip. The spike is usually erect to inclined at maturity. Kernels are red colored, hard textured, midlong, and elliptical to ovate in shape. The kernel has no collar, a midsize to large brush of medium length, rounded cheeks, midsize germ, and a midwide and shallow crease. Cougar was tested as NE93496 in Nebraska yield nurseries starting in 1994, in the USDA-ARS Southern Regional Performance Nursery in 1997 and 1998, and in Nebraska cultivar performance trials in 1998 and 1999. In 2 yr of testing in Nebraska cultivar performance trials, it has performed competitively in southeast, southcentral, and southwestern Nebraska, areas where historically Thunderbird also performed well. In this region (17 environments), Cougar had a yield of 4100 kg ha−1, which was lower than Wesley (4700 kg ha−1) and 2137 (4630 kg ha−1) but superior to ‘Pronghorn’ (3820 kg ha−1), the only other modern, long coleoptile wheat in the trial. Cougar was ranked 38 out of 45 lines tested in the Southern Regional Performance Nursery in 1997 (36 environments), and 42 out of 45 lines tested in 1998 (35 environments). The main advantages Cougar has when compared with most other available wheat cultivars, within its area of adaptation, is its long coleoptile, exceptional straw strength, good grain volume weight, and kernel size