Association between Residences in U.S. Northern Latitudes and Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Spatial Analysis of the Nurses’ Health Study

Background: The etiology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) remains largely unknown, although epidemiologic studies suggest genetic and environmental factors may play a role. Geographic variation in incident RA has been observed at the regional level. Objective: Spatial analyses are a useful tool for confirming existing exposure hypotheses or generating new ones. To further explore the association between location and RA risk, we analyzed individual-level data from U.S. women in the Nurses’ Health Study, a nationwide cohort study. Methods: Participants included 461 incident RA cases and 9,220 controls with geocoded addresses; participants were followed from 1988 to 2002. We examined spatial variation using addresses at baseline in 1988 and at the time of case diagnosis or the censoring of controls. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to predict a continuous risk surface by smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for known risk factors. Permutation tests were conducted to evaluate the overall importance of location and to identify, within the entire study area, those locations of statistically significant risk. Results: A statistically significant area of increased RA risk was identified in the northeast United States (p-value = 0.034). Risk was generally higher at northern latitudes, and it increased slightly when we used the nurses’ 1988 locations compared with those at the time of diagnosis or censoring. Crude and adjusted models produced similar results. Conclusions: Spatial analyses suggest women living in higher latitudes may be at greater risk for RA. Further, RA risk may be greater for locations that occur earlier in residential histories. These results illustrate the usefulness of GAM methods in generating hypotheses for future investigation and supporting existing hypotheses

A specific case in the classification of woods by FTIR and chemometric: discrimination of Fagales from Malpighiales

Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic data was used to classify wood samples from nine species within the Fagales and Malpighiales using a range of multivariate statistical methods. Taxonomic classification of the family Fagaceae and Betulaceae from Angiosperm Phylogenetic System Classification (APG II System) was successfully performed using supervised pattern recognition techniques. A methodology for wood sample discrimination was developed using both sapwood and heartwood samples. Ten and eight biomarkers emerged from the dataset to discriminate order and family, respectively. In the species studied FTIR in combination with multivariate analysis highlighted significant chemical differences in hemicelluloses, cellulose and guaiacyl (lignin) and shows promise as a suitable approach for wood sample classification

Variable selection: current practice in epidemiological studies

Selection of covariates is among the most controversial and difficult tasks in epidemiologic analysis. Correct variable selection addresses the problem of confounding in etiologic research and allows unbiased estimation of probabilities in prognostic studies. The aim of this commentary is to assess how often different variable selection techniques were applied in contemporary epidemiologic analysis. It was of particular interest to see whether modern methods such as shrinkage or penalized regression were used in recent publications. Stepwise selection methods remained the predominant method for variable selection in publications in epidemiological journals in 2008. Shrinkage methods were not used in any of the reviewed articles. Editors, reviewers and authors have insufficiently promoted the new, less controversial approaches of variable selection in the biomedical literature, whereas statisticians may not have adequately addressed the method’s feasibility

Genetic Determinants of Circulating Sphingolipid Concentrations in European Populations

Sphingolipids have essential roles as structural components of cell membranes and in cell signalling, and disruption of their metabolism causes several diseases, with diverse neurological, psychiatric, and metabolic consequences. Increasingly, variants within a few of the genes that encode enzymes involved in sphingolipid metabolism are being associated with complex disease phenotypes. Direct experimental evidence supports a role of specific sphingolipid species in several common complex chronic disease processes including atherosclerotic plaque formation, myocardial infarction (MI), cardiomyopathy, pancreatic beta-cell failure, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Therefore, sphingolipids represent novel and important intermediate phenotypes for genetic analysis, yet little is known about the major genetic variants that influence their circulating levels in the general population. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) between 318,237 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and levels of circulating sphingomyelin (SM), dihydrosphingomyelin (Dih-SM), ceramide (Cer), and glucosylceramide (GluCer) single lipid species (33 traits); and 43 matched metabolite ratios measured in 4,400 subjects from five diverse European populations. Associated variants (32) in five genomic regions were identified with genome-wide significant corrected p-values ranging down to 9.08 x 10(-66). The strongest associations were observed in or near 7 genes functionally involved in ceramide biosynthesis and trafficking: SPTLC3, LASS4, SGPP1, ATP10D, and FADS1-3. Variants in 3 loci (ATP10D, FADS3, and SPTLC3) associate with MI in a series of three German MI studies. An additional 70 variants across 23 candidate genes involved in sphingolipid-metabolizing pathways also demonstrate association (p = 10(-4) or less). Circulating concentrations of several key components in sphingolipid metabolism are thus under strong genetic control, and variants in these loci can be tested for a role in the development of common cardiovascular, metabolic, neurological, and psychiatric diseases

Spatial analysis of bladder, kidney, and pancreatic cancer on upper Cape Cod: an application of generalized additive models to case-control data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 1988, elevated cancer incidence in upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts prompted a large epidemiological study of nine cancers to investigate possible environmental risk factors. Positive associations were observed, but explained only a portion of the excess cancer incidence. This case-control study provided detailed information on individual-level covariates and residential history that can be spatially analyzed using generalized additive models (GAMs) and geographical information systems (GIS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We investigated the association between residence and bladder, kidney, and pancreatic cancer on upper Cape Cod. We estimated adjusted odds ratios using GAMs, smoothing on location. A 40-year residential history allowed for latency restrictions. We mapped spatially continuous odds ratios using GIS and identified statistically significant clusters using permutation tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Maps of bladder cancer are essentially flat ignoring latency, but show a statistically significant hot spot near known Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR) groundwater plumes when 15 years latency is assumed. The kidney cancer map shows significantly increased ORs in the south of the study area and decreased ORs in the north.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Spatial epidemiology using individual level data from population-based studies addresses many methodological criticisms of cluster studies and generates new exposure hypotheses. Our results provide evidence for spatial clustering of bladder cancer near MMR plumes that suggest further investigation using detailed exposure modeling.</p

Threat-sensitive anti-predator defence in precocial wader, the northern lapwing Vanellus vanellus

Birds exhibit various forms of anti-predator behaviours to avoid reproductive failure, with mobbing—observation, approach and usually harassment of a predator—being one of the most commonly observed. Here, we investigate patterns of temporal variation in the mobbing response exhibited by a precocial species, the northern lapwing (Vanellus vanellus). We test whether brood age and self-reliance, or the perceived risk posed by various predators, affect mobbing response of lapwings. We quantified aggressive interactions between lapwings and their natural avian predators and used generalized additive models to test how timing and predator species identity are related to the mobbing response of lapwings. Lapwings diversified mobbing response within the breeding season and depending on predator species. Raven Corvus corax, hooded crow Corvus cornix and harriers evoked the strongest response, while common buzzard Buteo buteo, white stork Ciconia ciconia, black-headed gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus and rook Corvus frugilegus were less frequently attacked. Lapwings increased their mobbing response against raven, common buzzard, white stork and rook throughout the breeding season, while defence against hooded crow, harriers and black-headed gull did not exhibit clear temporal patterns. Mobbing behaviour of lapwings apparently constitutes a flexible anti-predator strategy. The anti-predator response depends on predator species, which may suggest that lapwings distinguish between predator types and match mobbing response to the perceived hazard at different stages of the breeding cycle. We conclude that a single species may exhibit various patterns of temporal variation in anti-predator defence, which may correspond with various hypotheses derived from parental investment theory

Spatial analysis of lung, colorectal, and breast cancer on Cape Cod: An application of generalized additive models to case-control data

BACKGROUND: The availability of geographic information from cancer and birth defect registries has increased public demands for investigation of perceived disease clusters. Many neighborhood-level cluster investigations are methodologically problematic, while maps made from registry data often ignore latency and many known risk factors. Population-based case-control and cohort studies provide a stronger foundation for spatial epidemiology because potential confounders and disease latency can be addressed. METHODS: We investigated the association between residence and colorectal, lung, and breast cancer on upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts (USA) using extensive data on covariates and residential history from two case-control studies for 1983–1993. We generated maps using generalized additive models, smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for covariates. The resulting continuous surface estimates disease rates relative to the whole study area. We used permutation tests to examine the overall importance of location in the model and identify areas of increased and decreased risk. RESULTS: Maps of colorectal cancer were relatively flat. Assuming 15 years of latency, lung cancer was significantly elevated just northeast of the Massachusetts Military Reservation, although the result did not hold when we restricted to residences of longest duration. Earlier non-spatial epidemiology had found a weak association between lung cancer and proximity to gun and mortar positions on the reservation. Breast cancer hot spots tended to increase in magnitude as we increased latency and adjusted for covariates, indicating that confounders were partly hiding these areas. Significant breast cancer hot spots were located near known groundwater plumes and the Massachusetts Military Reservation. DISCUSSION: Spatial epidemiology of population-based case-control studies addresses many methodological criticisms of cluster studies and generates new exposure hypotheses. Our results provide evidence for spatial clustering of breast cancer on upper Cape Cod. The analysis suggests further investigation of the potential association between breast cancer and pollution plumes based on detailed exposure modeling

Identifier mapping performance for integrating transcriptomics and proteomics experimental results

Background\ud Studies integrating transcriptomic data with proteomic data can illuminate the proteome more clearly than either separately. Integromic studies can deepen understanding of the dynamic complex regulatory relationship between the transcriptome and the proteome. Integrating these data dictates a reliable mapping between the identifier nomenclature resultant from the two high-throughput platforms. However, this kind of analysis is well known to be hampered by lack of standardization of identifier nomenclature among proteins, genes, and microarray probe sets. Therefore data integration may also play a role in critiquing the fallible gene identifications that both platforms emit.\ud \ud Results\ud We compared three freely available internet-based identifier mapping resources for mapping UniProt accessions (ACCs) to Affymetrix probesets identifications (IDs): DAVID, EnVision, and NetAffx. Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry analyses of 91 endometrial cancer and 7 noncancer samples generated 11,879 distinct ACCs. For each ACC, we compared the retrieval sets of probeset IDs from each mapping resource. We confirmed a high level of discrepancy among the mapping resources. On the same samples, mRNA expression was available. Therefore, to evaluate the quality of each ACC-to-probeset match, we calculated proteome-transcriptome correlations, and compared the resources presuming that better mapping of identifiers should generate a higher proportion of mapped pairs with strong inter-platform correlations. A mixture model for the correlations fitted well and supported regression analysis, providing a window into the performance of the mapping resources. The resources have added and dropped matches over two years, but their overall performance has not changed.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud The methods presented here serve to achieve concrete context-specific insight, to support well-informed decisions in choosing an ID mapping strategy for "omic" data merging

A Mathematical Model for Interpretable Clinical Decision Support with Applications in Gynecology

Over time, methods for the development of clinical decision support (CDS) systems have evolved from interpretable and easy-to-use scoring systems to very complex and non-interpretable mathematical models. In order to accomplish effective decision support, CDS systems should provide information on how the model arrives at a certain decision. To address the issue of incompatibility between performance, interpretability and applicability of CDS systems, this paper proposes an innovative model structure, automatically leading to interpretable and easily applicable models. The resulting models can be used to guide clinicians when deciding upon the appropriate treatment, estimating patient-specific risks and to improve communication with patients.We propose the interval coded scoring (ICS) system, which imposes that the effect of each variable on the estimated risk is constant within consecutive intervals. The number and position of the intervals are automatically obtained by solving an optimization problem, which additionally performs variable selection. The resulting model can be visualised by means of appealing scoring tables and color bars. ICS models can be used within software packages, in smartphone applications, or on paper, which is particularly useful for bedside medicine and home-monitoring. The ICS approach is illustrated on two gynecological problems: diagnosis of malignancy of ovarian tumors using a dataset containing 3,511 patients, and prediction of first trimester viability of pregnancies using a dataset of 1,435 women. Comparison of the performance of the ICS approach with a range of prediction models proposed in the literature illustrates the ability of ICS to combine optimal performance with the interpretability of simple scoring systems.The ICS approach can improve patient-clinician communication and will provide additional insights in the importance and influence of available variables. Future challenges include extensions of the proposed methodology towards automated detection of interaction effects, multi-class decision support systems, prognosis and high-dimensional data

Modelling molecular interaction pathways using a two-stage identification algorithm

In systems biology, molecular interactions are typically modelled using white-box methods, usually based on mass action kinetics. Unfortunately, problems with dimensionality can arise when the number of molecular species in the system is very large, which makes the system modelling and behavior simulation extremely difficult or computationally too expensive. As an alternative, this paper investigates the identification of two molecular interaction pathways using a black-box approach. This type of method creates a simple linear-in-the-parameters model using regression of data, where the output of the model at any time is a function of previous system states of interest. One of the main objectives in building black-box models is to produce an optimal sparse nonlinear one to effectively represent the system behavior. In this paper, it is achieved by applying an efficient iterative approach, where the terms in the regression model are selected and refined using a forward and backward subset selection algorithm. The method is applied to model identification for the MAPK signal transduction pathway and the Brusselator using noisy data of different sizes. Simulation results confirm the efficacy of the black-box modelling method which offers an alternative to the computationally expensive conventional approach