TREND-RUN model application of surface temperature and its implications for South African forestry and reforestation using local weather services data

Temperature can directly and indirectly impact the livelihood of inhabitants of a country and the natural environment as a whole. The surface temperature trend approximations for South Africa (SA) were calculated using a linear-regression fitting model. The model was adapted at The University of Reunion Island and was referred to as the Trend-Run model. The geophysical signal of the model was split into a sum of oscillations, which was used to clarify most of its variability. The trend values were calculated from the residual terms as a linear function. The model used atmospheric oscillations, which included Annual (AO), Semi-Annual (SAO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillations (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the 11-years solar cycle-Sun Spot Number (SSN) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The South African Weather Service (SAWS) data were used for the study. Data sets over a 31-year period, from March 1980 to December 2011, were used to measure the validity of the Trend-Run model, to determine the contribution and effect of this particular oscillation, and the validity of the model. The Trend-Run model showed very high applicability to the surface temperatures in all provinces across the SA region under investigation. High coefficient of determination values between (0.70-0.91) were recorded for surface temperatures across all provinces in the country with minor variations. The AO, ENSO and SAO were the highest contributing forcings in the model, thereby showing their high relevance to the success of this model in the study area. The temperature increases are expected to negatively impact on the biomes of SA, including the forest biome. Selected tree species of Acacia, Eucalyptus and Pinus could be impacted negatively with rising temperatures, which would negatively impact on the forestry industry in SA. As expected, the model did obtain a high success rate that ranged from 70% to 91% in the areas under study, however, there was still room for improvement by the possible inclusion of additional atmospheric forcings to the model that maybe be applicable to the weather and forestry distribution in SA

Comparison of total column ozone obtained by the IASI-MetOp satellite with ground-based and OMI satellite observations in the southern tropics and subtropics

International audienceThis paper presents comparison results of the total column ozone (TCO) data product over 13 southern tropical and subtropical sites recorded from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) onboard the EU-METSAT (European organization for the exploitation of METeorological SATellite) MetOp (Meteorological Operational satellite program) satellite. TCO monthly averages obtained from IASI between June 2008 and December 2012 are compared with collocated TCO measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the OMI/Aura satellite and the Dobson and SAOZ (Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale) ground-based instruments. The results show that IASI displays a positive bias with an average less than 2 % with respect to OMI and Dobson observations, but exhibits a negative bias compared to SAOZ over Bauru with a bias around 2.63 %. There is a good agreement between IASI and the other instruments, especially from 15 • S southward where a correlation coefficient higher than 0.87 is found. IASI exhibits a seasonal dependence, with an upward trend in autumn and a downward trend during spring, especially before September 2010. After September 2010, the autumn seasonal bias is considerably reduced due to changes made to the retrieval algorithm of the IASI level 2 (L2) product. The L2 product released after August (L2 O 3 version 5 (v5)) matches TCO from the other instruments better compared to version 4 (v4), which was released between June 2008 and August 2010. IASI bias error recorded from September 2010 is estimated to be at 1.5 % with respect to OMI and less than ±1 % with respect to the other ground-based instruments. Thus, the improvement made by O 3 L2 version 5 (v5) product compared with version 4 (v4), allows IASI TCO products to be used with confidence to study the distribution and interannual variability of total ozone in the southern tropics and subtropics. Keywords. Atmospheric composition and structure (middle atmosphere – composition and chemistry

LiDAR for Atmosphere Research over Africa (LARA)

International audienceThis paper describes the LIDAR for atmosphere research over Africa and current initiatives being undertaken in South Africa. A mobile LIDAR system is being developed at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) National Laser Centre (NLC), Pretoria (25°5 ′ S;28°2 ′ E), South Africa, for remote sensing the atmosphere. The initial results conclude that the system is capable of providing aerosol/cloud backscatter measurements for the height region from ground to 40 km with a 10 m vertical height resolution

Characterization of human behavior in records of personal solar ultraviolet exposure records: poster

Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) has health benefits such as vitamin D production but excess exposure can lead to sunburn, cataracts and skin cancer Risk factors associated with sun exposure can be limited by using sun protection measures Personal sun exposure differs from ambient UVR as it is influenced by behavior, movement and bodily location which are an indication of individual exposure behavio

Midlatitude stratosphere - troposphere exchange as diagnosed by MLS O3 and MOPITT CO assimilated fields

International audienceThis paper presents a comprehensive characterization of a very deep stratospheric intrusion which occurred over the British Isles on 15 August 2007. The signature of this event is diagnosed using ozonesonde measurements over Lerwick, UK (60.14 N, 1.19 W) and is also well characterized using meteorological analyses from the global operational weather prediction model of Météo-France, ARPEGE. Modelled as well as assimilated fields of both ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) have been used in order to better document this event. O3 and CO from Aura/MLS and Terra/MOPITT instruments, respectively, are assimilated into the three-dimensional chemical transport model MOCAGE of Météo-France using a variational 3-DFGAT (First Guess at Appropriate Time) method. The validation of O3 and CO assimilated fields is done using selfconsistency diagnostics and by comparison with independent observations such as MOZAIC (O3 and CO), AIRS (CO) and OMI (O3). It particularly shows in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region that the assimilated fields are closer to MOZAIC than the free model run. The O3 bias between MOZAIC and the analyses is −11.5 ppbv with a RMS of 22.4 ppbv and a correlation coefficient of 0.93, whereas between MOZAIC and the free model run, the corresponding values are 33 ppbv, 38.5 ppbv and 0.83, respectively. In the same way, for CO, the bias, RMS and correlation coefficient between MOZAIC and the analyses are −3.16 ppbv, 13 ppbv and 0.79, respectively, whereas between MOZAIC and the free model run, the corresponding values are 33 ppbv, 38.5 ppbv and 0.83, respectively. In the same way, for CO, the bias, RMS and correlation coefficient between MOZAIC and the analyses are −3.16 ppbv, 13 ppbv and 0.79, respectively, whereas between MOZAIC and the free model they are 6.3 ppbv, 16.6 ppbv and 0.71, respectively. The paper also presents a demonstration of the capability of O3 and CO assimilated fields to better describe a stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) event in comparison with the free run modelled O3 and CO fields. Although the assimilation of MLS data improves the distribution of O3 above the tropopause compared to the free model run, it is not sufficient to reproduce the STE event well. Assimilated MOPITT CO allows a better qualitative description of the stratospheric intrusion event. The MOPITT CO analyses appear more promising than the MLS O3 analyses in terms of their ability to capture a deep STE event. Therefore, the results of this study open the perspectives for using MOPITT CO in the STE studies

Solar UV radiation in Saint-Denis, La Réunion and Cape Town, South Africa: 10 years climatology and human exposure assessment at altitude

International audienceSolar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) monitoring is important since it depends on several atmospheric parameters which are associated with climate change and since excess solar UVR exposure and has significant impacts on human health and wellbeing. The objective of this study was to investigate the trends in solar UVR during a decade (2009-2018) in Saint-Denis, Reunion Island (20.9°S, 55.5°E, 85 m ASL) and Cape Town, South Africa (33.97°S, 18.6°E, 42 m ASL). This comparison was done using total daily erythema exposure as derived from UVR sensors continuously at both sites. Climatology over the 10-year period showed extreme UVR exposure for both sites. Slight changes with opposite trends were found, +3.6% at Saint-Denis and −3.7% at Cape Town. However, these two sites often experience extreme weather conditions thereby making the trend evaluation difficult. Human exposure assessment was performed for hiking activities at two popular high-altitude hiking trails on the Maïdo-Grand Bénare (Reunion) and Table Mountain (Cape Town) with a handheld radiometer. Extreme exposure doses of 64 SED and 40 SED (Standard Erythemal Dose, 1 SED = 100 J.m −2) were recorded, respectively. These high exposure doses highlight the importance of raising public awareness on the risk related to excess UVR exposure at tourist sites, especially those at high altitude

Eventos de Influência do Buraco de Ozônio Antártico Ocorridos em 2016 Sobre o Sul do Brasil

O presente trabalho objetivou identificar e analisar a dinâmica estratosférica dos eventos de influência do Buraco de Ozônio Antártico (BOA) ocorridos sobre o Sul do Brasil no ano de 2016. Para atingir esse objetivo, buscou-se dias de redução no conteúdo de ozônio estratosférico com base em dados médios diários da Coluna Total de Ozônio (CTO) obtidos pelo espectrofotômetro Brewer instalado no Observatório Espacial do Sul (OES/INPE) (29.443752 ºS, 53.823084 ºO; 488,7 metros) e pelo instrumento de medição de Ozônio (Ozone Monitoring Instrument - OMI) a bordo do satélite Aura da NASA.  Para esses dias foram realizadas análises da dinâmica da estratosfera através de campos isentrópicos de Vorticidade Potencial (PV) nos níveis de 600 e 700 K de temperatura potencial, utilizando as médias diárias de PV obtidas a partir das reanálises ERA-Interim do ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast) a fim de verificar a origem das massas de ar pobres em ozônio, e desta forma, a confirmação da origem dessas massas através das trajetórias retroativas obtidas com uso do modelo HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) da NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Além disso, imagens do conteúdo de ozônio do satélite OMI foram utilizadas como técnica complementar para verificar a atuação do BOA sobre o Sul do Brasil. Usando a metodologia apresentada identificou-se 6 eventos de influência do Buraco de Ozônio Antártico sobre o Sul do Brasil no ano de 2016 com percentagem de redução média de 11%  da CTO em relação as climatologias mensais, confirmados pela passagem de filamentos polares estratosféricos sobre a região do OES, observados nos campos isentrópicos de VP nos níveis de 600 e 700 K de temperatura potencial assim como pelas trajetórias retroativas de origem polar obtidas no modelo HYSPLIT

VALIDATION OF GOMOS OZONE PROFILES USING NDSC LIDAR : STATISTICAL COMPARISONS

ABSTRACT The lidars deployed in the NDSC framework have been used for the validation of GOMOS onboard ENVISAT. During the commissioning phase around ten coincidences per site have been investigated. No significant bias, larger than ±5 %, has been reported except around 50 km and 20 km where both techniques are known to present some limitations. The estimated errors of both GOMOS and lidar are in good agreement with the standard deviation of the differences between coincidences. At higher latitude, comparisons are not so good because of the measurement conditions of bright limb during this period

Investigating the Long-Range Transport of Aerosol Plumes Following the Amazon Fires (August 2019): A Multi-Instrumental Approach from Ground-Based and Satellite Observations

Despite a number of studies on biomass burning (BB) emissions in the atmosphere, observation of the associated aerosols and pollutants requires continuous efforts. Brazil, and more broadly Latin America, is one of the most important seasonal sources of BB, particularly in the Amazon region. Uncertainty about aerosol loading in the source regions is a limiting factor in terms of understanding the role of aerosols in climate modelling. In the present work, we investigated the Amazon BB episode that occurred during August 2019 and made the international headlines, especially when the smoke plumes plunged distant cities such as São Paulo into darkness. Here, we used satellite and ground-based observations at different locations to investigate the long-range transport of aerosol plumes generated by the Amazon fires during the study period. The monitoring of BB activity was carried out using fire related pixel count from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua and Terra platforms, while the distribution of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations and total columns were obtained from the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) onboard the METOP-A and METOP-B satellites. In addition, AERONET sun-photometers as well as the MODIS instrument made aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements over the study region. Our datasets are consistent with each other and highlight AOD and CO variations and long-range transport of the fire plume from the source regions in the Amazon basin. We used the Lagrangian transport model FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle) to simulate backward dispersion, which showed good agreement with satellite and ground measurements observed over the study area. The increase in Rossby wave activity during the 2019 austral winter the Southern Hemisphere may have contributed to increasing the efficiency of large-scale transport of aerosol plumes generated by the Amazon fires during the study period