Modelling coinfection dynamics ofHIVAIDS, tuberculosis and Hepatitis C virus

HIV and coinfection (i.e. Tuberculosis and Hepatitis C) adversely affects the lives of individuals in both the biological and psychosocial aspects. This study focuses on modelling coinfection dynamics of HIV&AIDS and some selected opportunistic infections, there-by determining their long-run and causal relationship. The study focuses on six (6) states in the North West Geo-Political Region of Nigeria, these states under study includes; Kaduna, Sokoto, Katsina, Kano, Zamfara and Kebbi. The Johansen Multivariate Cointegration approach was applied to establish the long-run relationship among variables and Granger Causality test was also applied to determine whether variables move in either unidirectional or bidirectional. The results for the cointegration test showed that there is a long-run relationship between HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Hepatitis C in Kaduna, Katsina and Kebbi States. While, Granger causality test indicates that, no bidirectional Granger causality is found in the sample period, only unidirectional causality. The test showed that in the short-run HIV/AIDS Granger causes Tuberculosis in Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara and Kebbi, while, HIV/AIDS Granger causes Hepatitis C in only Kaduna and Sokoto

Application of self-exciting threshold autoregressive model on exchange rate in Nigeria: a comparative approach

Exchange rates and many other financial time series data exhibit structural breaks and volatility. Nonlinearity test and a structural break test were used to detect the nonlinearity and the break date in NGN/EUR. The study revealed that nonlinearity and threshold nonlinearity exist in the exchange rate series. The results showed that the SETAR model can explain abrupt changes in NGN/EUR. The identified structural break date coincides with identifiable economic and political shocks. Given the evidence of structural break in the series, we applied unit root test and find that NGN/EUR is stationary which indicate that the ADF unit root tests are bias towards non-rejection of non-stationarity. In modelling the exchange rates data set, two SETAR models were generated, that is SETAR(2;5,2) model without dummy variable was used as a benchmark, while, dummy variable was added so as to address the identified structural break which generated SETAR(3;5,3). The diagnostic tests revealed that, the SETAR model is adequate for forecasting (i.e. both models are free from serial correlation and heteroscedasticity). The forecast results showed that the SETAR(3;5,3) model with the inclusion of dummy variable performs better than that of the SETAR(2;5,2) model without dummy variable

Modelling the trend and determinants of stunted children age 0-59 months in Nigeria

Prevalence of Stunting among under-five children is very high in many developing countries of the World. As step towards reducing the prevalence, there is need to identify the important determinants and the Trend of Stunting in the specific context. This paper examined the general trend and determinants of stunting among children 0-59 months in Nigeria. The anthropometric indices Height for age z-score was used to determine a child’s nutritional status as whether a child is stunted and the impacts of some socioeconomic, Demographic, Community level, Environmental and maternal factors on this are determined. Results from this study shows that Child’s sex, mother’s birth interval, Mother’s and their partner’s educational status, Locality, geopolitical zones of the mother’s, Wealth index, parents source of drinking water among others contributed positively to Stunting among children 0-59 months in Nigeria (p < 0.05). The general results showed that Stunting among less than five years children in Nigeria has significantly improves over time between 1990 and 2003 (p < 0.05). Although following a sinusoidal pattern. Five waves of national data from the Nigerian Demographic and Health Surveys for 1990, 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2013 were employed in the study. Keywords: Stunted, Malnutrition, Anthropometry, Height for Age, Logistic Regression

Antibiogram of Pseudomonas species: an important tool to combat antibiotic resistance for patient safety in Gombe, Nigeria

Background: Pseudomonas species are responsible for different healthcare-associated infections and are inherently resistant to many commonly used antibiotics. Hospital antibiograms are either absent or not regularly available in most healthcare facilities in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to present the antibiogram of Pseudomonas isolates in Federal Teaching Hospital Gombe (FTHG) in order to guide antibiotic prescription for better patient safety in the hospital.Methodology: The is a hospital-based cross-sectional study. A total of 4309 bacterial isolates were recovered from aerobic cultures of routine clinical specimens including urine, sputum, blood, swabs, aspirates, biopsies, seminal fluids and cerebrospinal fluids at the Medical Microbiology laboratory of the hospital between January and December 2019. Pseudomonas species were identified by colony morphology, Gram-reaction and conventional biochemical tests. Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed on each Pseudomonas isolate using the modified Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method on Mueller-Hinton agar and results interpreted according to the guideline of the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI). Data were analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSSTM) software version 23.0.Results: Of the total 4309 bacterial isolates, 436 (10.1%) Pseudomonas species were identified, with majority (49.8%) from urine specimens. Antibiotic susceptibility test results revealed average susceptibility rates of 73.8%, 70.1%, 66.2%, 59.5%, and 34.3% to ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, levofloxacin ceftazidime, and carbenicillin respectively. These rates fluctuate only slightly for each of the antibiotic during the 12 months period of survey.Conclusion: Pseudomonas species were most sensitive to ciprofloxacin and gentamicin among the first line antibiotics in FTHG in 2019. Regular updates and presentation of hospital antibiogram especially for intrinsically resistant bacteria such as Pseudomonas involved in healthcare associated infections, is an important tool in combating antimicrobial resistance and ensuring patient safety. Keywords: antibiogram, Pseudomonas, antimicrobial resistance, antimicrobial stewardship, patient safet

Empirical antibiotherapy as a potential driver of antibiotic resistance: observations from a point prevalence survey of antibiotic consumption and resistance in Gombe, Nigeria

Background: Empirical use of antibiotics is a standard practice in the treatment of infections worldwide. However, its over utilization without subsequent culture and antibiotic susceptibility testing could be a major driver of resistance.Over reliance on empirical antibiotherapy is common in most developing countries where antibiotic policies and availability or utilization of clinical microbiology laboratory are suboptimal. A standardized approach to point prevalence survey (PPS) on antimicrobial use (AMU) in hospitals was employed to assess the antimicrobial prescribing practices in Federal Teaching Hospital Gombe (FTHG), Nigeria.Methodology: A PPS was conducted in April 2019 at FTHG by recruiting all in-patients present in the hospital on the day of survey. Data obtained from patients’ records included details of the type and indication for antibiotherapy. A customized online application developed by the University of Antwerp (www.global-pps.be) was used for data-entry, validation, analysis and reporting.Results: Of the total 326 patients who were on admission on the day of survey, 70.6% and 73.4% were on at least one antibiotic in adult and paediatric wards respectively. Most commonly used antibiotics include beta lactams such as cephalosporins (29.2%) and penicillins (22.8%), fluoroquinolones (12.4%), aminoglycosides (9.1%) and macrolides (3.4%). Among patients on antibiotics, route of  administration was mainly parenteral (71.6%) while 44.8% were on more than one antibiotic. Overall, 91.3% of the antibiotic treatments were empirical with adults, children and neonates accounting for 96.4%, 77.6% and 100.0% respectively. Empirical antibiotic use is also high in medical wards (86.3%), surgical wards (89.9%) and intensive care unit (100.0%).Conclusion: There is predominance and over-reliance on empirical antibiotherapy in our hospital. It further exposes the poor utilization of clinical microbiology laboratory and the potential for development of antibiotic resistance with resultant increase in morbidity/mortality and poor patient safety. There is need for further studies to highlight the dangers of over-reliance on empirical antibiotherapy and herald improvement in development and implementation of antibiotic stewardship programme. Keywords: Empirical antibiotherapy, antimicrobial resistance, point prevalence survey, antimicrobial stewardship   French title:L'antibiothérapie empirique comme moteur potentiel de la résistance aux antibiotiques: observations d'une enquêteponctuelle de prévalence de la consommation et de la résistance aux antibiotiques à Gombe, au Nigéria   Contexte: L'utilisation empirique d'antibiotiques est une pratique courante dans le traitement des infections dans le monde entier. Cependant, sa surutilisation sans culture ultérieure ni test de sensibilité aux antibiotiques pourrait être un facteur majeur de résistance. Le recours excessif à l'antibiothérapie empirique est courant dans la plupart des pays en développement où les politiques d'antibiotiques et la disponibilité ou l'utilisation du laboratoire de microbiologie clinique sont sous-optimales. Une approche standardisée de l'enquête de prévalence ponctuelle (PPS) sur l'utilisation des antimicrobiens (AMU) dans les hôpitaux a été utilisée pour évaluer les pratiques de prescription d'antimicrobiens au Federal Teaching Hospital Gombe (FTHG), au Nigéria.Méthodologie: Un PPS a été réalisé en avril 2019 au FTHG en recrutant tous les patients hospitalisés présents à l'hôpital le jour de l'enquête. Les données obtenues à partir des dossiers des patients comprenaient des détails sur le type et l’indication de  l’antibiothérapie. Une application en ligne personnalisée développée par l'Université d'Anvers (www.global-pps.be) a été utilisée pour la saisie, la validation, l'analyse et le reporting des données.Résultats: Sur les 326 patients au total qui étaient admis le jour de l'enquête, 70,6% et 73,4% prenaient au moins un antibiotique dans les services pour adultes et pédiatriques respectivement. Les antibiotiques les plus couramment utilisés comprennent les bêta-lactamines telles que les céphalosporines (29,2%) et les pénicillines (22,8%), les fluoroquinolones (12,4%), les aminosides (9,1%) et les macrolides (3,4%). Parmi les patients’ sous antibiotiques, la voie d'administration était principalement parentérale (71,6%) tandis que 44,8% prenaient plus d'un antibiotique. Dans l'ensemble, 91,3% des traitements antibiotiques étaient empiriques, les adultes, les enfants et les nouveau-nés représentant respectivement 96,4%, 77,6% et 100,0%. L'utilisation empirique d'antibiotiques est également élevée dans les services médicaux (86,3%), les services chirurgicaux (89,9%) et les unités de soins intensifs (100,0%).Conclusion: Il y a une prédominance et une dépendance excessive à l'antibiothérapie empirique dans notre hôpital. Il expose en outre la mauvaie utilisation du laboratoire de microbiologie clinique et le potentiel de développement d'une résistance aux antibiotiques avec une augmentation résultante de la morbidité/mortalité et une mauvaise sécurité des patients. Des études supplémentaires sont nécessaires pour mettre en évidence les dangers d'une dépendance excessive à l'antibiothérapie empirique et annoncer une amélioration dans le développement et la mise en œuvre d'un programme de gestion des antibiotiques. Mots clés: antibiothérapie empirique, résistance aux antimicrobiens, enquête ponctuelle de prévalence, gestion des antimicrobiens   &nbsp

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into diferent pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, tt¯, and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and τ τ ) are included in this kind of combination for the frst time. A simplifed model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confdence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion