Models containing age and NIHSS predict recovery of ambulation and upper limb function six months after stroke: An observational study

Questions: What is the incidence of recovery of ambulation and upper limb function six months after stroke? Can measures such as age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) be used to develop models to predict the recovery of ambulation and upper limb function? Design: Prospective cohort study. Participants: Consecutive sample of 200 people with stroke admitted to a Sydney Hospital. Outcome measures: Ambulation was measured with item 5 of the Motor Assessment Scale (MAS); patients scoring ≥ 3 could ambulate independently. Upper limb function was measured with items 7 and 8 of the MAS; patients scoring ≥ 5 could move a cup across the table and feed themselves with a spoonful of liquid with the hemiplegic arm. Results: Of the 114 stroke survivors who were unable to ambulate initially, 80 (70%) achieved independent ambulation at six months. Of the 51 stroke survivors who could not move a cup across the table initially, 21 (41%) achieved the upper limb task at six months. Of the 56 stroke survivors who were unable to feed themselves initially, 25 (45%) could feed themselves at six months. Models containing age and severity of stroke (measured with NIHSS) predicted recovery of ambulation and ability to move a cup across the table, whilst a model containing severity of stroke predicted ability to feed oneself. All prediction models showed good discrimination (AUC 0.73 to 0.84). Conclusion: More than two-thirds of people after stroke recovered independent ambulation and less than half recovered upper limb function at six months. Models using age and NIHSS can predict independent ambulation and upper limb function but these prediction models now require external validation before use in clinical practice. © 2013 Australian Physiotherapy Association

Beyond persons: extending the personal / subpersonal distinction to non-rational animals and artificial agents

The distinction between personal level explanations and subpersonal ones has been subject to much debate in philosophy. We understand it as one between explanations that focus on an agent’s interaction with its environment, and explanations that focus on the physical or computational enabling conditions of such an interaction. The distinction, understood this way, is necessary for a complete account of any agent, rational or not, biological or artificial. In particular, we review some recent research in Artificial Life that pretends to do completely without the distinction, while using agent-centered concepts all the way. It is argued that the rejection of agent level explanations in favour of mechanistic ones is due to an unmotivated need to choose among representationalism and eliminativism. The dilemma is a false one if the possibility of a radical form of externalism is considered

Deep Learning for Forecasting Stock Returns in the Cross-Section

Many studies have been undertaken by using machine learning techniques, including neural networks, to predict stock returns. Recently, a method known as deep learning, which achieves high performance mainly in image recognition and speech recognition, has attracted attention in the machine learning field. This paper implements deep learning to predict one-month-ahead stock returns in the cross-section in the Japanese stock market and investigates the performance of the method. Our results show that deep neural networks generally outperform shallow neural networks, and the best networks also outperform representative machine learning models. These results indicate that deep learning shows promise as a skillful machine learning method to predict stock returns in the cross-section.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, 8 tables, accepted at PAKDD 201

Stretch for the treatment and prevention of contractures (Review)

Background Contractures are a common complication of neurological and non-neurological conditions, and are characterised by a reduction in joint mobility. Stretch is widely used for the treatment and prevention of contractures. However, it is not clear whether stretch is effective. This review is an update of the original 2010 version of this review. Objectives The aim of this review was to determine the effects of stretch on contractures in people with, or at risk of developing, contractures.The outcomes of interest were joint mobility, quality of life, pain, activity limitations, participation restrictions, spasticity and adverse events. Search methods In November 2015 we searched CENTRAL, DARE, HTA; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; SCI-EXPANDED; PEDro and trials registries. Selection criteria We included randomised controlled trials and controlled clinical trials of stretch applied for the purpose of treating or preventing contractures. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently selected trials, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. The outcomes of interest were joint mobility, quality of life, pain, activity limitations, participation restrictions and adverse events. We evaluated outcomes in the short term (up to one week after the last stretch) and in the long term (more than one week). We expressed effects as mean differences (MD) or standardised mean differences (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We conducted meta-analyses with a random-effects model. We assessed the quality of the body of evidence for the main outcomes using GRADE.Main results Forty-nine studies with 2135 participants met the inclusion criteria. No study performed stretch for more than seven months. Just over half the studies (51%) were at low risk of selection bias; all studies were at risk of detection bias for self reported outcomes such as pain and at risk of performance bias due to difficulty of blinding the intervention. However, most studies were at low risk of detection bias for objective outcomes including range of motion, and the majority of studies were free from attrition and selective reporting biases. The effect of these biases were unlikely to be important, given that there was little benefit with treatment. There was high-quality evidence that stretch did not have clinically important short-term effects on joint mobility in people with neurological conditions (MD 2°; 95% CI 0° to 3°; 26 studies with 699 participants) or non-neurological conditions (SMD 0.2, 95% CI 0 to 0.3, 19 studies with 925 participants). In people with neurological conditions, it was uncertain whether stretch had clinically important short-term effects on pain (SMD 0.2; 95% CI -0.1 to 0.5; 5 studies with 174 participants) or activity limitations (SMD 0.2; 95% CI -0.1 to 0.5; 8 studies with 247 participants). No trials examined the short-term effects of stretch on quality of life or participation restrictions in people with neurological conditions. Five studies involving 145 participants reported eight adverse events including skin breakdown, bruising, blisters and pain but it was not possible to statistically analyse these data. In people with non-neurological conditions, there was high-quality evidence that stretch did not have clinically important short-term effects on pain (SMD-0.2, 95%CI -0.4 to 0.1; 7 studies with 422 participants) and moderate-quality evidence that stretch did not have clinically important short-term effects on quality of life (SMD 0.3, 95% CI -0.1 to 0.7; 2 studies with 97 participants). The short-term effect of stretch on activity limitations (SMD 0.1; 95% CI -0.2 to 0.3; 5 studies with 356 participants) and participation restrictions were uncertain (SMD -0.2; 95% CI -0.6 to 0.1; 2 studies with 192 participants). Nine studies involving 635 participants reported 41 adverse events including numbness, pain, Raynauds’ phenomenon, venous thrombosis, need for manipulation under anaesthesia, wound infections, haematoma, flexion deficits and swelling but it was not possible to statistically analyse these data. Authors’ conclusions There was high-quality evidence that stretch did not have clinically important effects on joint mobility in people with or without neurological conditions if performed for less than seven months. Sensitivity analyses indicate results were robust in studies at risk of selection and detection biases in comparison to studies at low risk of bias. Sub-group analyses also suggest the effect of stretch is consistent in people with different types of neurological or non-neurological conditions. The effects of stretch performed for periods longer than sevenmonths have not been investigated. There was moderate- and high-quality evidence that stretch did not have clinically important short-term effects on quality of life or pain in people with non-neurological conditions, respectively. The short-term effects of stretch on quality of life and pain in people with neurological conditions, and the short-term effects of stretch on activity limitations and participation restrictions for people with and without neurological conditions are uncertain

Hypnosis for treatment of insomnia in school-age children: a retrospective chart review

BACKGROUND: The purposes of this study are to document psychosocial stressors and medical conditions associated with development of insomnia in school-age children and to report use of hypnosis for this condition. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was performed for 84 children and adolescents with insomnia, excluding those with central or obstructive sleep apnea. All patients were offered and accepted instruction in self-hypnosis for treatment of insomnia, and for other symptoms if it was felt that these were amenable to therapy with hypnosis. Seventy-five patients returned for follow-up after the first hypnosis session. Their mean age was 12 years (range, 7–17). When insomnia did not resolve after the first instruction session, patients were offered the opportunity to use hypnosis to gain insight into the cause. RESULTS: Younger children were more likely to report that the insomnia was related to fears. Two or fewer hypnosis sessions were provided to 68% of the patients. Of the 70 patients reporting a delay in sleep onset of more than 30 minutes, 90% reported a reduction in sleep onset time following hypnosis. Of the 21 patients reporting nighttime awakenings more than once a week, 52% reported resolution of the awakenings and 38% reported improvement. Somatic complaints amenable to hypnosis were reported by 41%, including chest pain, dyspnea, functional abdominal pain, habit cough, headaches, and vocal cord dysfunction. Among these patients, 87% reported improvement or resolution of the somatic complaints following hypnosis. CONCLUSION: Use of hypnosis appears to facilitate efficient therapy for insomnia in school-age children

Human Female Genital Tract Infection by the Obligate Intracellular Bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis Elicits Robust Type 2 Immunity

While Chlamydia trachomatis infections are frequently asymptomatic, mechanisms that regulate host response to this intracellular Gram-negative bacterium remain undefined. This investigation thus used peripheral blood mononuclear cells and endometrial tissue from women with or without Chlamydia genital tract infection to better define this response. Initial genome-wide microarray analysis revealed highly elevated expression of matrix metalloproteinase 10 and other molecules characteristic of Type 2 immunity (e.g., fibrosis and wound repair) in Chlamydia-infected tissue. This result was corroborated in flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry studies that showed extant upper genital tract Chlamydia infection was associated with increased co-expression of CD200 receptor and CD206 (markers of alternative macrophage activation) by endometrial macrophages as well as increased expression of GATA-3 (the transcription factor regulating TH2 differentiation) by endometrial CD4+ T cells. Also among women with genital tract Chlamydia infection, peripheral CD3+ CD4+ and CD3+ CD4- cells that proliferated in response to ex vivo stimulation with inactivated chlamydial antigen secreted significantly more interleukin (IL)-4 than tumor necrosis factor, interferon-γ, or IL-17; findings that repeated in T cells isolated from these same women 1 and 4 months after infection had been eradicated. Our results thus newly reveal that genital infection by an obligate intracellular bacterium induces polarization towards Type 2 immunity, including Chlamydia-specific TH2 development. Based on these findings, we now speculate that Type 2 immunity was selected by evolution as the host response to C. trachomatis in the human female genital tract to control infection and minimize immunopathological damage to vital reproductive structures. © 2013 Vicetti Miguel et al

Stable non-uniform black strings below the critical dimension

The higher-dimensional vacuum Einstein equation admits translationally non-uniform black string solutions. It has been argued that infinitesimally non-uniform black strings should be unstable in 13 or fewer dimensions and otherwise stable. We construct numerically non-uniform black string solutions in 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 dimensions. Their stability is investigated using local Penrose inequalities. Weakly non-uniform solutions behave as expected. However, in 12 and 13 dimensions, strongly non-uniform solutions appear to be stable and can have greater horizon area than a uniform string of the same mass. In 14 and 15 dimensions all non-uniform black strings appear to be stable.Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures. V2: reference added, matches published versio

A multicentre, randomised controlled trial comparing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of early nutritional support via the parenteral versus the enteral route in critically ill patients (CALORIES)

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is a common problem in critically ill patients in UK NHS critical care units. Early nutritional support is therefore recommended to address deficiencies in nutritional state and related disorders in metabolism. However, evidence is conflicting regarding the optimum route (parenteral or enteral) of delivery. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of early nutritional support via the parenteral route compared with the enteral route on mortality at 30 days and on incremental cost-effectiveness at 1 year. Secondary objectives were to compare the route of early nutritional support on duration of organ support; infectious and non-infectious complications; critical care unit and acute hospital length of stay; all-cause mortality at critical care unit and acute hospital discharge, at 90 days and 1 year; survival to 90 days and 1 year; nutritional and health-related quality of life, resource use and costs at 90 days and 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: A pragmatic, open, multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with an integrated economic evaluation. SETTING: Adult general critical care units in 33 NHS hospitals in England. PARTICIPANTS: 2400 eligible patients. INTERVENTIONS: Five days of early nutritional support delivered via the parenteral (n = 1200) and enteral (n = 1200) route. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality at 30 days after randomisation and incremental net benefit (INB) (at £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year) at 1 year. RESULTS: By 30 days, 393 of 1188 (33.1%) patients assigned to receive early nutritional support via the parenteral route and 409 of 1195 (34.2%) assigned to the enteral route had died [p = 0.57; absolute risk reduction 1.15%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.65 to 4.94; relative risk 0.97 (0.86 to 1.08)]. At 1 year, INB for the parenteral route compared with the enteral route was negative at -£1320 (95% CI -£3709 to £1069). The probability that early nutritional support via the parenteral route is more cost-effective - given the data - is < 20%. The proportion of patients in the parenteral group who experienced episodes of hypoglycaemia (p = 0.006) and of vomiting (p < 0.001) was significantly lower than in the enteral group. There were no significant differences in the 15 other secondary outcomes and no significant interactions with pre-specified subgroups. LIMITATIONS: Blinding of nutritional support was deemed to be impractical and, although the primary outcome was objective, some secondary outcomes, although defined and objectively assessed, may have been more vulnerable to observer bias. CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality at 30 days for early nutritional support via the parenteral route compared with the enteral route among adults admitted to critical care units in England. On average, costs were higher for the parenteral route, which, combined with similar survival and quality of life, resulted in negative INBs at 1 year. FUTURE WORK: Nutritional support is a complex combination of timing, dose, duration, delivery and type, all of which may affect outcomes and costs. Conflicting evidence remains regarding optimum provision to critically ill patients. There is a need to utilise rigorous consensus methods to establish future priorities for basic and clinical research in this area. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17386141. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

The writing on the wall: the concealed communities of the East Yorkshire horselads

This paper examines the graffiti found within late nineteenth and early-twentieth century farm buildings in the Wolds of East Yorkshire. It suggests that the graffiti were created by a group of young men at the bottom of the social hierarchy - the horselads – and was one of the ways in which they constructed a distinctive sense of communal identity, at a particular stage in their lives. Whilst it tells us much about changing agricultural regimes and social structures, it also informs us about experiences and attitudes often hidden from official histories and biographies. In this way, the graffiti are argued to inform our understanding, not only of a concealed community, but also about their hidden histor