The Impact of CEO Turnover on Equity Volatility

A change in executive leadership is a significant event in the life of a firm. Our paper investigates a potentially significant consequence of a CEO turnover: a change in equity volatility. We develop several hypotheses about how CEO changes might affect stock price volatility, and test these hypotheses using a sample of 872 CEO changes over the 1979-1995 period. We find that volatility increases following a CEO turnover, even for the most frequent type, when a CEO leaves voluntarily and is replaced by someone from inside the firm. Our results indicate that forced turnovers, which are expected to result in large strategy changes, increase volatility more than voluntary turnovers. Outside successions, which are expected to result in a successor CEO with less certain skill in managing the firm's operations, increase volatility more than inside turnovers. We also document a greater stock-price response to earnings announcements around CEO turnover, consistent with more informative signals of value driving the increased volatility. Controls for firm-specific characteristics indicate that the volatility changes cannot be entirely attributed to factors such as changes in firm operations, firm size, and both volatility change and performance prior to the turnover

Dynamic Limits on Planar Libration-Orbit Coupling Around an Oblate Primary

This paper explores the dynamic properties of the planar system of an ellipsoidal satellite in an equatorial orbit about an oblate primary. In particular, we investigate the conditions for which the satellite is bound in librational motion or when the satellite will circulate with respect to the primary. We find the existence of stable equilibrium points about which the satellite can librate, and explore both the linearized and non-linear dynamics around these points. Absolute bounds are placed on the phase space of the libration-orbit coupling through the use of zero-velocity curves that exist in the system. These zero-velocity curves are used to derive a sufficient condition for when the satellite's libration is bound to less than 90 degrees. When this condition is not satisfied so that circulation of the satellite is possible, the initial conditions at zero libration angle are determined which lead to circulation of the satellite. Exact analytical conditions for circulation and the maximum libration angle are derived for the case of a small satellite in orbits of any eccentricity.Comment: Submitted to Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronom

Routinely reported ejection fraction and mortality in clinical practice: where does the nadir of risk lie?

Aims: We investigated the relationship between clinically assessed left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and survival in a large, heterogeneous clinical cohort. Methods and results: Physician-reported LVEF on 403 977 echocardiograms from 203 135 patients were linked to all-cause mortality using electronic health records (1998–2018) from US regional healthcare system. Cox proportional hazards regression was used for analyses while adjusting for many patient characteristics including age, sex, and relevant comorbidities. A dataset including 45 531 echocardiograms and 35 976 patients from New Zealand was used to provide independent validation of analyses. During follow-up of the US cohort, 46 258 (23%) patients who had undergone 108 578 (27%) echocardiograms died. Overall, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for mortality showed a u-shaped relationship for LVEF with a nadir of risk at an LVEF of 60–65%, a HR of 1.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64–1.77] when ≥70% and a HR of 1.73 (95% CI 1.66–1.80) at LVEF of 35–40%. Similar relationships with a nadir at 60–65% were observed in the validation dataset as well as for each age group and both sexes. The results were similar after further adjustments for conditions associated with an elevated LVEF, including mitral regurgitation, increased wall thickness, and anaemia and when restricted to patients reported to have heart failure at the time of the echocardiogram. Conclusion: Deviation of LVEF from 60% to 65% is associated with poorer survival regardless of age, sex, or other relevant comorbidities such as heart failure. These results may herald the recognition of a new phenotype characterized by supra-normal LVEF

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift

Association of Rare and Common Variation in the Lipoprotein Lipase Gene With Coronary Artery Disease.

IMPORTANCE: The activity of lipoprotein lipase (LPL) is the rate-determining step in clearing triglyceride-rich lipoproteins from the circulation. Mutations that damage the LPL gene (LPL) lead to lifelong deficiency in enzymatic activity and can provide insight into the relationship of LPL to human disease. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether rare and/or common variants in LPL are associated with early-onset coronary artery disease (CAD). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In a cross-sectional study, LPL was sequenced in 10 CAD case-control cohorts of the multinational Myocardial Infarction Genetics Consortium and a nested CAD case-control cohort of the Geisinger Health System DiscovEHR cohort between 2010 and 2015. Common variants were genotyped in up to 305 699 individuals of the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium and up to 120 600 individuals of the CARDIoGRAM Exome Consortium between 2012 and 2014. Study-specific estimates were pooled via meta-analysis. EXPOSURES: Rare damaging mutations in LPL included loss-of-function variants and missense variants annotated as pathogenic in a human genetics database or predicted to be damaging by computer prediction algorithms trained to identify mutations that impair protein function. Common variants in the LPL gene region included those independently associated with circulating triglyceride levels. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Circulating lipid levels and CAD. RESULTS: Among 46 891 individuals with LPL gene sequencing data available, the mean (SD) age was 50 (12.6) years and 51% were female. A total of 188 participants (0.40%; 95% CI, 0.35%-0.46%) carried a damaging mutation in LPL, including 105 of 32 646 control participants (0.32%) and 83 of 14 245 participants with early-onset CAD (0.58%). Compared with 46 703 noncarriers, the 188 heterozygous carriers of an LPL damaging mutation displayed higher plasma triglyceride levels (19.6 mg/dL; 95% CI, 4.6-34.6 mg/dL) and higher odds of CAD (odds ratio = 1.84; 95% CI, 1.35-2.51; P < .001). An analysis of 6 common LPL variants resulted in an odds ratio for CAD of 1.51 (95% CI, 1.39-1.64; P = 1.1 × 10-22) per 1-SD increase in triglycerides. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The presence of rare damaging mutations in LPL was significantly associated with higher triglyceride levels and presence of coronary artery disease. However, further research is needed to assess whether there are causal mechanisms by which heterozygous lipoprotein lipase deficiency could lead to coronary artery disease

Describing heterogeneous effects in stratified ordinal contingency tables, with application to multi-center clinical trials

Standard models for a set of contingency tables with ordered response categories assume a common effect within or between tables, described by a certain type of odds ratio. In practice, heterogeneity usually occurs among such odds ratios, even if its extent is minor in magnitude. This article presents models that summarize the effect while simultaneously describing the degree of heterogeneity. For cases in which the levels of the stratification factor are a sample, such as many multi-center clinical trials,we recommend the use of random effects models. That treat the true stratum-specific ordinal log odds ratios as a sample with some unknown mean and standard deviation. For the random effects distribution, we consider both normality and a nonparametric approach. In using these more realistic models permitting heterogeneity, it can be more difficult to establish significance of effects because of the extra variability inherent in the model. The primary focus is three-way contingency tables with an ordinal response and a stratification factor, but we also briefly discuss models for describing heterogeneity within contingency tables. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

Corporate Posts and Tweets: Brand Control in Web 2.0

Social networking, through media such as Twitter and Facebook, is changing influence streams on consumer (customer) attitudes and behaviours. The direct and readily available consumer-to-consumer communication, made accessible through social networking, provides a repository of information from one's referent group, as well as an organisation's customer-facing facade. Therefore as connections among customers increase, the customers assume a higher degree of brand control at the expense of corporate marketing efforts to establish a specific brand image. This paper presents the results of interviews with four organisations that have created interactive marketing strategies built upon social networking. These companies are using social media and social networks to create online communities where they can leverage peer-to-peer network influence and use this influence to reinforce or increase a positive brand image.Brand control, social media, social networking, Web 2.0

A dose ranging study of 2 different formulations of 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15) in healthy infants

Background: Two new formulations of an investigational 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15-A and PCV15-B) were developed using 2 different protein-polysaccharide conjugation processes and evaluated in separate phase I/II studies (NCT02037984 [V114-004] and NCT02531373 [V114-005]) to assess optimal concentrations of pneumococcal polysaccharide (PnPs) and Aluminum Phosphate Adjuvant. Methods: Various lots of PCV15-A and PCV15-B containing different concentrations of PnPs and/or adjuvant were compared to PCV13 in young adults and infants. Adults received single dose and infants received 4 doses at 2, 4, 6, and 12–15 months of age. Adverse events (AEs) were collected after each dose. Serotype-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations and opsonophagocytic activity (OPA) were measured prior and 30 days postvaccination in adults, at 1 month postdose 3 (PD3), pre-dose4, and postdose 4 (PD4) in infants. Results: Safety profiles were comparable across vaccination groups. At PD3, serotype-specific IgG GMCs were generally lower for either PCV15 formulation than PCV13 for most shared serotypes. PCV15 consistently elicited higher antibody responses to the 2 serotypes unique to the vaccine (22F and 33F) and serotype 3 for which PCV13 was shown to be ineffective. Except for serotypes 6A and 6B, no dose-response effect was observed with increasing concentrations of PnPs and/or adjuvant. Conclusion: PCV15 is safe and induces IgG and OPA responses to all 15 serotypes in the vaccine. No significant differences in antibody responses were observed with increases in PnPs and/or Aluminum Phosphate Adjuvant