Did the introduction of the euro impact on inflation uncertainty? - An empirical assessment

We study the impact of the introduction of the European Monetary Union on inflation uncertainty. Two groups of economies, one consisting of three European Union members which are not part of the EMU and one of six OECD member economies, are used as control groups to contrast the effects of monetary unification against the counterfactual of keeping the status quo. We find that the monetary unification provides a significant payoff in terms of lower inflation uncertainty in comparison with the OECD. Regarding the difficulty of quantifying the latent inflation uncertainty, results are found to be robust over a set of four alternative estimates of inflation risk processes.Monetary policy regimes,euro introduction,inflation uncertainty,uncertainty measures,Did the introduction of the euro impact on infla,Hartmann,Herwartz,European Economy. Economic Papers

Predictors of metabolic energy expenditure from body acceleration and mechanical energies in new generation active computer games

The following paper is an original research project which uses state of the art sport science physiological and biomechanical approaches to gain information about active computer games. This project is found to be particular relevant for the field of computer science in sport, since biomechanical and physiological knowledge is required to model, track and understand human motion during computer game play

Cross-sectional evidence on the relation between monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions and low-frequency inflation uncertainty

We examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the long-term. The unobservable inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of the slowly evolving long-term variance component of inflation in the framework of the Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). For a cross-section of 13 developed economies, we find that long-term inflation uncertainty is high if central bank governors are perceived as less inflation-averse and if the conduct of monetary policy is ad-hoc rather than rule-based

State-dependence vs. timedependence: An empirical multi-country investigation of price sluggishness

In this paper we empirically investigate the time- and state-dependent behavior of aggregate price setting. We implement a testing procedure by means of a nonparametric representation of the structural form New Keynesian Phillips curve. By means of the so-called functional coefficient regression we allow for potential dependence of the Calvo (1983) parameter on inflation and inflation uncertainty. Thus, we can test for state-dependence of the Calvo parameter in a straightforward way. To address residual heteroscedasticity in the inference process regarding functional dependence, we make use of the factor-based bootstrap. We confirm that the Calvo scheme is a rather restrictive model of aggregate price setting. Moreover, it is documented that a number of shortcomings of empirical NKPC model representations in explaining inflation data may be addressed by means of a state-dependent pricing rule. In particular, problems of insignificant or even implausibly negative estimates of the relation between inflation and marginal costs are considerably reduced in the framework of our more general NKPC specification

РЕЗУЛЬТАТы ЭКСПЕРИМЕНТАЛЬНыХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ ВыСШИХ ГАРМОНИЧЕСКИХ СОСТАВЛЯЮЩИХ В СИСТЕМЕ ЭЛЕКТРО-СНАБЖЕНИЯ ШАХТы ИМ. "ГЕРОЕВ КОСМОСА"

Викладено основні результати спостережень та їх короткий аналіз. Частково розкрита проблема електромагнітної сумісності в системі електропостачання шахти ім. Героїв Космосу. Відзначено появу вищіх гармонік та їх джерела а також причини винекнення резонансних явищ. Обгрунтовано необхідність проведення моніторінгу показників якості електроенергії з метою підвищення ефективності її використання

Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios

We propose an imperfect information model for the expectations of macroeconomic forecasters that explains differences in average disagreement levels across forecasters by means of cross sectional heterogeneity in the variance of private noise signals. We show that the forecaster-specific signal-to-noise ratios determine both the average individual disagreement level and an individuals' forecast performance: forecasters with very noisy signals deviate strongly from the average forecasts and report forecasts with low accuracy. We take the model to the data by empirically testing for this implied correlation. Evidence based on data from the Surveys of Professional Forecasters for the US and for the Euro Area supports the model for short- and medium-run forecasts but rejects it based on its implications for long-run forecasts