The Apparent Tidal Decay of WASP-4 b Can Be Explained by the Rømer Effect

Tidal orbital decay plays a vital role in the evolution of hot Jupiter systems. As of now, this has only been observationally confirmed for the WASP-12 system. There are a few other candidates, including WASP-4 b, but no conclusive result could be obtained for these systems as of yet. In this study, we present an analysis of new TESS data of WASP-4 b together with archival data, taking the light–time effect (LTE) induced by the second planetary companion into account as well. We make use of three different Markov chain Monte Carlo models: a circular orbit with a constant orbital period, a circular orbit with a decaying orbit, and an elliptical orbit with apsidal precession. This analysis is repeated for four cases. The first case features no LTE correction, with the remaining three cases featuring three different timing correction approaches because of the large uncertainties of the ephemeris of planet c. Comparison of these models yields no conclusive answer to the cause of WASP-4 b’s apparent transit timing variations. A broad range of values of the orbital decay and apsidal precession parameters are possible, depending on the LTE correction. However, the LTE caused by planet c can explain on its own—in full—the observed transit timing variations of planet b, with no orbital decay or apsidal precession being required at all. This work highlights the importance of continued photometric and spectroscopic monitoring of hot Jupiters

Transit least-squares survey. IV. Earth-like transiting planets expected from the PLATO mission

In its long-duration observation phase, the PLATO satellite (scheduled for launch in 2026) will observe two independent, non-overlapping fields, nominally one in the northern hemisphere and one in the southern hemisphere, for a total of four years. The exact duration of each pointing will be determined two years before launch. Previous estimates of PLATO’s yield of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones (HZs) around solar-type stars ranged between 6 and 280. We use the PLATO Solar-like Light curve Simulator (PSLS) to simulate light curves with transiting planets around bright (mV ≤ 11) Sun-like stars at a cadence of 25 s, roughly representative of the > 15, 000 targets in PLATO’s high-priority P1 sample (mostly F5-K7 dwarfs and subdwarfs). Our study includes light curves generated from synchronous observations of 6, 12, 18, and 24 of PLATO’s 12 cm aperture cameras over both 2 yr and 3 yr of continuous observations. Automated detrending is done with the W¯otan software, and post-detrending transit detection is performed with the transit least-squares (TLS) algorithm. Light curves combined from 24 cameras yield true positive rates (TPRs) near unity for planets ≥1.2 R⊕ with two transits. If a third transit is in the light curve, planets as small as 1 R⊕ are recovered with TPR ∼ 100 %. We scale the TPRs with the expected number of stars in the P1 sample and with modern estimates of the exoplanet occurrence rates and predict the detection of planets with 0.5 R⊕ ≤ Rp ≤ 1.5 R⊕ in the HZs around F5-K7 dwarf stars. For the long-duration observation phase (2 yr + 2 yr) strategy we predict 11–34 detections, and for the (3 yr + 1 yr) strategy we predict 8–25 discoveries. These estimates neglect exoplanets with monotransits, serendipitous detections in stellar samples P2–P5, a dedicated removal of systematic effects, and a possible bias of the P1 sample toward brighter stars and high camera coverage due to noise requirements. As an opposite effect, Earth-sized planets might typically exhibit transits around P1 sample stars shallower than we have assumed since the P1 sample will be skewed toward spectral types earlier than the Sun-like stars assumed in our simulations. Moreover, our study of the effects of stellar variability on shallow transits of Earth-like planets illustrates that our estimates of PLATO’s planet yield, which we derive using a photometrically quiet star similar to the Sun, must be seen as upper limits. In conclusion, PLATO’s detection of about a dozen Earth-sized planets in the HZs around solar-type stars will mean a major contribution to this as yet poorly sampled part of the exoplanet parameter space with Earth-like planets

The Orbit of Warm Jupiter WASP-106 b is aligned with its Star

Understanding orbital obliquities, or the misalignment angles between a star's rotation axis and the orbital axis of its planets, is crucial for unraveling the mechanisms of planetary formation and migration. In this study, we present an analysis of Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) observations of the warm Jupiter exoplanet WASP-106 b. The high-precision radial velocity measurements were made with HARPS and HARPS-N during the transit of this planet. We aim to constrain the orientation of the planet's orbit relative to its host star's rotation axis. The RM observations are analyzed using a code which models the RM anomaly together with the Keplerian orbit given several parameters in combination with a Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation. We measure the projected stellar obliquity in the WASP-106 system for the first time and find $\lambda = (-1 \pm 11)^\circ$, supporting the theory of quiescent migration through the disk.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables, submitted to AA

The Orbit of Warm Jupiter WASP-106b is aligned with its Star

Understanding orbital obliquities, or the misalignment angles between a star's rotation axis and the orbital axis of its planets, is crucial for unraveling the mechanisms of planetary formation and migration. In this study, we present an analysis of Rossiter–McLaughlin (RM) observations of the warm Jupiter exoplanet WASP-106 b. The high-precision radial velocity measurements were made with HARPS and HARPS-N during the transit of this planet. We aim to constrain the orientation of the planet's orbit relative to its host star's rotation axis. The RM observations are analyzed using a code which models the RM anomaly together with the Keplerian orbit given several parameters in combination with a Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation. We measure the projected stellar obliquity in the WASP-106 system for the first time and find λ = (−1 ± 11)°, supporting the theory of quiescent migration through the disk

Examining the orbital decay targets KELT-9 b, KELT-16 b, and WASP-4b, and the transit-timing variations of HD 97658 b

Context. Tidal orbital decay is suspected to occur for hot Jupiters in particular, with the only observationally confirmed case of this being WASP-12 b. By examining this effect, information on the properties of the host star can be obtained using the so-called stellar modified tidal quality factor Q′ ∗, which describes the efficiency with which the kinetic energy of the planet is dissipated within the star. This can provide information about the interior of the star. Aims. In this study, we aim to improve constraints on the tidal decay of the KELT-9, KELT-16, and WASP-4 systems in order to find evidence for or against the presence of tidal orbital decay. With this, we want to constrain the Q′ ∗ value for each star. In addition, we aim to test the existence of the transit timing variations (TTVs) in the HD 97658 system, which previously favoured a quadratic trend with increasing orbital period. Methods. Making use of newly acquired photometric observations from CHEOPS (CHaracterising ExOplanet Satellite) and TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite), combined with archival transit and occultation data, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to fit three models to the data, namely a constant-period model, an orbital-decay model, and an apsidal-precession model. Results. We find that the KELT-9 system is best described by an apsidal-precession model for now, with an orbital decay trend at over 2 σ being a possible solution as well. A Keplerian orbit model with a constant orbital period provides the best fit to the transit timings of KELT-16 b because of the scatter and scale of their error bars. The WASP-4 system is best represented by an orbital decay model at a 5 σ significance, although apsidal precession cannot be ruled out with the present data. For HD 97658 b, using recently acquired transit observations, we find no conclusive evidence for a previously suspected strong quadratic trend in the data

Examining the orbital decay targets KELT-9 b, KELT-16 b, and WASP-4 b, and the transit-timing variations of HD 97658

Context. Tidal orbital decay is suspected to occur for hot Jupiters in particular, with the only observationally confirmed case of this being WASP-12 b. By examining this effect, information on the properties of the host star can be obtained using the so-called stellar modified tidal quality factor Q′ ∗, which describes the efficiency with which the kinetic energy of the planet is dissipated within the star. This can provide information about the interior of the star. Aims. In this study, we aim to improve constraints on the tidal decay of the KELT-9, KELT-16, and WASP-4 systems in order to find evidence for or against the presence of tidal orbital decay. With this, we want to constrain the Q′ ∗ value for each star. In addition, we aim to test the existence of the transit timing variations (TTVs) in the HD 97658 system, which previously favoured a quadratic trend with increasing orbital period. Methods. Making use of newly acquired photometric observations from CHEOPS (CHaracterising ExOplanet Satellite) and TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite), combined with archival transit and occultation data, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to fit three models to the data, namely a constant-period model, an orbital-decay model, and an apsidal-precession model. Results. We find that the KELT-9 system is best described by an apsidal-precession model for now, with an orbital decay trend at over 2 σ being a possible solution as well. A Keplerian orbit model with a constant orbital period provides the best fit to the transit timings of KELT-16 b because of the scatter and scale of their error bars. The WASP-4 system is best represented by an orbital decay model at a 5 σ significance, although apsidal precession cannot be ruled out with the present data. For HD 97658 b, using recently acquired transit observations, we find no conclusive evidence for a previously suspected strong quadratic trend in the data

Examining the orbital decay targets KELT-9 b, KELT-16 b, and WASP-4 b, and the transit-timing variations of HD 97658 b

Context. Tidal orbital decay is suspected to occur for hot Jupiters in particular, with the only observationally confirmed case of this being WASP-12 b. By examining this effect, information on the properties of the host star can be obtained using the so-called stellar modified tidal quality factor Q′∗, which describes the efficiency with which the kinetic energy of the planet is dissipated within the star. This can provide information about the interior of the star. Aims. In this study, we aim to improve constraints on the tidal decay of the KELT-9, KELT-16, and WASP-4 systems in order to find evidence for or against the presence of tidal orbital decay. With this, we want to constrain the Q′ ∗ value for each star. In addition, we aim to test the existence of the transit timing variations (TTVs) in the HD 97658 system, which previously favoured a quadratic trend with increasing orbital period. Methods. Making use of newly acquired photometric observations from CHEOPS (CHaracterising ExOplanet Satellite) and TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite), combined with archival transit and occultation data, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to fit three models to the data, namely a constant-period model, an orbital-decay model, and an apsidal-precession model. Results. We find that the KELT-9 system is best described by an apsidal-precession model for now, with an orbital decay trend at over 2 σ being a possible solution as well. A Keplerian orbit model with a constant orbital period provides the best fit to the transit timings of KELT-16 b because of the scatter and scale of their error bars. The WASP-4 system is best represented by an orbital decay model at a 5 σ significance, although apsidal precession cannot be ruled out with the present data. For HD 97658 b, using recently acquired transit observations, we find no conclusive evidence for a previously suspected strong quadratic trend in the data

Transit least-squares survey. IV. Earth-like transiting planets expected from the PLATO mission

International audienceIn its long-duration observation phase, the PLATO satellite (scheduled for launch in 2026) will observe two independent, non-overlapping fields, nominally one in the northern hemisphere and one in the southern hemisphere, for a total of four years. The exact duration of each pointing will be determined two years before launch. Previous estimates of PLATO's yield of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones (HZs) around solar-type stars ranged between 6 and 280. We use the PLATO Solar-like Light curve Simulator (PSLS) to simulate light curves with transiting planets around bright (mV ≤ 11) Sun-like stars at a cadence of 25 s, roughly representative of the >15 000 targets in PLATO's high-priority P1 sample (mostly F5-K7 dwarfs and subdwarfs). Our study includes light curves generated from synchronous observations of 6, 12, 18, and 24 of PLATO's 12 cm aperture cameras over both 2 and 3yr of continuous observations. Automated detrending is done with the Wotan software, and post-detrending transit detection is performed with the transit least-squares (TLS) algorithm. Light curves combined from 24 cameras yield true positive rates (TPRs) near unity for planets ≥1.2 R⊕ with two transits. If a third transit is in the light curve, planets as small as 1 R⊕ are recovered with TPR ~ 100%. We scale the TPRs with the expected number of stars in the P1 sample and with modern estimates of the exoplanet occurrence rates and predict the detection of planets with 0.5 R⊕ ≤ Rp ≤ 1.5 R⊕ in the HZs around F5-K7 dwarf stars. For the long-duration observation phase (2yr + 2yr) strategy we predict 11-34 detections, and for the (3 yr + 1 yr) strategy we predict 8-25 discoveries. These estimates neglect exoplanets with monotransits, serendipitous detections in stellar samples P2-P5, a dedicated removal of systematic effects, and a possible bias of the P1 sample toward brighter stars and high camera coverage due to noise requirements. As an opposite effect, Earth-sized planets might typically exhibit transits around P1 sample stars shallower than we have assumed since the P1 sample will be skewed toward spectral types earlier than the Sun-like stars assumed in our simulations. Moreover, our study of the effects of stellar variability on shallow transits of Earth-like planets illustrates that our estimates of PLATO's planet yield, which we derive using a photometrically quiet star similar to the Sun, must be seen as upper limits. In conclusion, PLATO's detection of about a dozen Earth-sized planets in the HZs around solar-type stars will mean a major contribution to this as yet poorly sampled part of the exoplanet parameter space with Earth-like planets

Examining the orbital decay targets KELT-9 b, KELT-16 b and WASP-4 b, and the TTV target HD 97658 b

Orbital decay is suspected to occur especially for hot Jupiters, with the only observationally confirmed case of this being WASP-12b. By examining this effect, information on the properties of the host star can be obtained using the so-called stellar modified tidal quality factor Q′∗, which describes the efficiency with which kinetic energy of the planet is dissipated within the star. Using newly acquired photometric CHEOPS and TESS observations, and by re-analyzing archival data, we aim to improve current orbital decay fits and parameters for the KELT-16 and WASP-4 systems, and for the first time give an estimate for the KELT-9 system. Furthermore, we want to solve the TTVs of HD 97658 b, which prior to this work have been indicative of an increasing orbital period. Making use of the fit results obtained by fitting a stable orbit, an orbital decay, and an apsidal precession model to the transit and occultation timings, which were acquired using state-of-the-art MCMC algorithms, we compare the BIC values of the three models for each system to infer the model describing each system the best, while also accounting for the number of parameters in each fit. Additionally, for our orbital decay targets KELT-9 b, KELT-16 b, and WASP-4 b, we calculate their respective Q′∗ values based on the best-fit orbital decay parameters. We find that all examined systems are best described by a constant orbital period model, according to the resulting BIC values. However, in the case of WASP-4 b, the orbital decay model shows a significant trend (> 5σ), with the new CHEOPS data also possibly indicating a non-linear ephemeris. Likewise, in the case of the KELT-9 system, the recently obtained TESS and CHEOPS transit observations could hint towards a quadratic ephemeris, but more observations in the future are necessary to conclude these presumptions. For HD 97658 b, we solve the TTV issue and confirm a linear ephemeris, ruling out the previously suspected quadratic tren