Order Flow and the Bitcoin Spot Rate

Bitcoin is a decentralized, open-source cryptocurrency used to make private, peer-to-peer transactions anywhere across the world. Although the individuals involved are (mostly) anonymous, every Bitcoin transaction is a matter of public record; anyone can view every Bitcoin transaction ever made. Following the methodology developed by Evans and Lyons (2002), this paper adapts and estimates a FX microstructure model that emphases order flow, the difference between buyer- and seller-initiated trading volume, to the Bitcoin market Using a data set consisting of all major currency transactions occurring on the Mt. Gox exchange, our results are quite similar to prior microfinance research on traditional currencies insofar order flow is a significant determinant of Bitcoin spot rates

Cellular games, nash equilibria, and Fibonacci numbers

The paper introduces a notion of cellular game that is intended to represent rationally behaving cells of a cellular automaton. The focus is made on studying properties of functional dependence between strategies of different cells in a Nash equilibrium of such games. The main result is a sound and complete axiomatization of these properties. The construction in the proof of completeness is based on the Fibonacci numbers

Functional dependence in strategic games

The article studies properties of functional dependencies between strategies of players in Nash equilibria of multiplayer strategic games. The main focus is on the properties of functional dependencies in the context of a fixed dependency graph for payoff functions. A logical system describing properties of functional dependence for any given graph is proposed and is proven to be complete

Functional Dependence in Strategic Games (extended abstract)

The paper studies properties of functional dependencies between strategies of players in Nash equilibria of multi-player strategic games. The main focus is on the properties of functional dependencies in the context of a fixed dependency graph for pay-off functions. A logical system describing properties of functional dependence for any given graph is proposed and is proven to be complete