COVID-19: Policy-Options, Effects and Resulting Scenarios

Over the coming 11-17 months (until end 2021), governments around the world are faced with the four options of (I) continuing the lockdown until a vaccine is found (estimated at 11-17 months from now), (II) periodic suspension of lockdown measures and their re-imposition until then, (III) a partial suspension of lockdown measures, and (IV) end of all lockdown measures. We estimate that (I) would have unaffordable economic consequences. (II) might be the optimal balance between the most humane treatment of the illness on the one hand (hospitalisation of all needing medical attention) and economic cost, but the economic costs would still be high, and could only be borne with most effective use of opening periods. Given supply chains and interconnectedness with the economies of other countries, this would work effectively only if very closely harmonised with those other countries’ own lockdown periods. (III) would be economically more desirable but would lead to more cases needing hospitalisation than the NHS can cope with. Even this option would be economically more sustainable with close trading and other co-operation with EU countries. (IV) is unacceptable in terms of human suffering caused to infected populations, with the NHS being completely overwhelmed several times over and fatalities in UK alone well into six figures. The prospects of the fiscal and economic recovery of the UK from 2022 depend very much on which of the above options are chosen now and in the coming 6 weeks. Everything else – Britain continuing to take a leading role in the world politically, economically, in defence and security – will flow from that. We sketch three possible resulting scenarios, each of which would set the UK on different courses in the recovery period after the immediate pandemic period

Unruly bodies in the fiction of Don DeLillo

EMBARGOED - expected end date 05.07.202

Handcuffing the Vote: Diluting Minority Voting Power Through Prison Gerrymandering and Felon Disenfranchisement

For the purposes of legislative redistricting, Texas counts prison populations at the address of the prison in which they are incarcerated at the time of the census, rather than their home prior to incarceration—regardless of whether the prisoners themselves maintain a residence in their home communities and intend to return home after incarceration. This deprives those home communities of full representation in the redistricting process. Combined with Texas’s felon disenfranchisement laws, this also results in arbitrarily bolstering the representational power of some Texans on the backs of other Texans who themselves are unable to vote. All of this takes place against the backdrop of a long history of unconstitutional racial discrimination by the State of Texas and a broken criminal justice system. Some states have taken proactive policy measures to remedy the systemic problem of prison gerrymandering, and changing societal values might pave the way for new legal challenges to combat these injustices

Non-chemically modified waxy rice starch stabilised wow emulsions for salt reduction

Water-in-oil-in-water emulsions containing an internalised salt solution were stabilised with non-chemically modified waxy rice starch (WRS), and octinyl succinic anhydride (OSA) as reference, to release salt during oral processing due to amylase-induced destabilisation. Salt levels were 1.5 g salt and 0.47 g salt per 100 g external and internal aqueous phases, respectively. Variables were the starch content (2, 3, 4 g per 100 g emulsion; 20 g oil per 100 g emulsion), level of polyglycerol polyricinoleate (PGPR) as a lipophilic emulsifier (0.29, 0.57 g per 100 g emulsion) and ambient-pressure processing temperature for WRS gelatinisation, the non-chemical modification process, (75 ± 3, 88 ± 5 °C). OSA starch was used under previously applied conditions (2, 3, 4 g starch, 0.57 g PGPR per 100 g emulsion, 25 ± 5 °C). Emulsions were stable for three months, except OSA and lower level PGPR low temperature processed WRS emulsions lost salt into the external emulsion phase. One day after processing, encapsulation efficiency (EE) was as predicted from the composition for OSA emulsions, while at the same PGPR content an external aqueous phase was incorporated into the oil droplets of the WRS emulsion increasing EE. Salt release was assessed in vitro and through sensory evaluation using paired comparison testing. The results revealed that the efficacy of this salt reduction approach was enhanced for gelatinised WRS compared to OSA starch stabilised emulsions. Consumer tests on a tomato soup, to validate this salt reduction approach for a real food, revealed a possible 25% salt reduction, compared to current UK products

Stigma, Secrecy and Masculine Norms: A Systematic Review of How Perinatal Mental Illness in Men and Their Partners Is Experienced by Males

In recent years, fathers have become increasingly involved in pregnancy and childcare and the concept of paternal perinatal mental illness (PMI) has gained research interest. There has been increased recognition of the impact of parenthood on the mental health of males, particularly in first time fathers where feelings of helplessness and marginalisation are common. Prevalence of paternal PMI is thought to be 10–16%, with higher risk demonstrated when their partner too experiences PMI. The importance of this topic was highlighted in the NHS long term plan, which recognised the disparity in service provision between males and females and the need to address this. Aim: To conduct a systematic review to establish the knowledge, beliefs, and experiences of males with PMI and whose partners had PMI, and to understand the barriers associated with help-seeking for paternal PMI. Five databases including EMBASE, Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus and PsycINFO were searched for qualitative studies investigating the experiences of males affected by PMI personally or through their partner's illness. The research question and inclusion criteria were determined using the PICOSS (population, intervention, comparison, outcome, setting, study design) method. 11 studies met criteria for inclusion and were appraised for quality using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme and Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative checklists. Evidence was synthesised using thematic analysis and study quality and risk of bias were assessed using the Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR 2) checklist and Risk of Bias in Systematic Reviews (ROBIS) too. 5 main themes and 17 sub-themes were identified, and demonstrated lack of knowledge and preparation for fatherhood, and distress and isolation experienced by males with PMI. Males were reluctant to seek help, and factors including stigma and lack of awareness regarding PMI and available support services were identified as barriers. The option to remain anonymous, flexibility of appointments and an emphasis on peer support were considered facilitators to engagement. Unhelpful and potentially damaging stereotypes regarding masculinity and PMI still exist, prohibit help-seeking for PMI and promote the marginalisation of males in perinatal settings. Support for males with PMI is warranted but lacking, and effective communication and education regarding paternal PMI for both professionals and the public is needed to allow successful expansion of services to include males

The Burrell-Optical-Kepler-Survey (BOKS). I. Survey Description and Initial Results

We present the initial results of a 40 night contiguous ground-based campaign of time series photometric observations of a 1.39 deg^2 field located within the NASA Kepler Mission field of view. The goal of this pre-launch survey was to search for transiting extrasolar planets and to provide independent variability information of stellar sources. We have gathered a data set containing light curves of 54,687 stars from which we have created a statistical sub-sample of 13,786 stars between 14 < r < 18.5 and have statistically examined each light curve to test for variability. We present a summary of our preliminary photometric findings including the overall level and content of stellar variability in this portion of the Kepler field and give some examples of unusual variable stars found within. We present a preliminary catalog of 2,457 candidate variable stars, of which 776 show signs of periodicity. We also present three potential exoplanet candidates, all of which should be observable by the Kepler mission