Enhancing the Australian National Health Survey Data for Use in a Microsimulation Model of Pharmaceutical Drug Usage and Cost

While static microsimulation models of the tax-transfer system are now available throughout the developed world, health microsimulation models are much rarer. This is, at least in part, due to the difficulties in creating adequate base micro-datasets upon which the microsimulation models can be constructed. In sharp contrast to tax-transfer modelling, no readily available microdata set typically contains all the health status, health service usage and socio-demographic information required for a sophisticated health microsimulation model. This paper describes three new techniques developed to overcome survey data limitations when constructing \'MediSim\', a microsimulation model of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Comparable statistical matching and data imputation techniques may be of relevance to other modellers, as they attempt to overcome similar data deficiencies. The 2001 national health survey (NHS) was the main data source for MediSim. However, the NHS has a number of limitations for use in a microsimulation model. To compensate for this, we statistically matched the NHS with another national survey to create synthetic families and get a complete record for every individual within each family. Further, we used complementary datasets to impute short term health conditions and prescribed drug usage for both short- and long-term health conditions. The application of statistical matching methods and use of complementary data sets significantly improved the usefulness of the NHS as a base dataset for MediSim.Base Data, Drug Usage, Microsimulation, Pharmaceutical Benefits, Scripts, Statistical Matching

P3_5 Fire at Will!

We consider the force produced by Zarya's "Graviton Surge" in the video game Overwatch. Themass required to produce a gravitational field of the necessary strength is found and the conse-quences of utilising such a mass considered. It is shown that the surge must have a mass of 9.4x10^12 kg, but limitations from special relativity make the existence of such a weapon impossible

P3_1 Black Hole formation within Starkiller Base

In the film "Star Wars: The Force Awakens", Starkiller Base pulls an entire star into its fuel chamber to power a laser weapon system. By estimating the dimensions of the fuel chamber, we find that the maximum mass a fuelling star can have before it collapses into a black hole is approximately 7.5 M☉, however, the additional gravitational force produced would make the planet uninhabitable

P3_2 Thick Skin

We determine the thickness of human skin that would be required to be bulletproof. The kineticenergy of bullets with various calibres are determined and the tensile strength of skin used to find the stopping distance of a bullet inside skin. We find that skin with a thickness of 5-40 cm is required to be bulletproof, dependent on the calibre of the bullet. The limitations of possessing such skin are considered to determine the feasibility of a bulletproof human

P3_8 Life with Bulletproof Skin

We consider some of the consequences of possessing skin thick enough to be bulletproof as determined in "P3 2 Thick Skin" [1]. We find that the extra skin would weigh 103 kg however even if this weight could be carried the temperature increase in the body would result in death in as little as 5 hours if not counteracted

P3_7 Why Does Venus Spin Backwards?

Venus has a very slow, retrograde rotation compared to the 24 hour prograde rotations ofEarth and Mars. We find that for an impacting asteroid to have changed Venus' rotation froman Earth-like period and direction to its current state, a minimum asteroid mass of 2x10^29kgwould be required, and that such a collision would destroy Venus. This makes it unlikely thatsuch a collision is responsible for the odd Venusian rotation

P3_4 Honey, I Shrunk the Tank!

In the 2015 film "Ant-Man", a Russian T-34 tank is shrunk down to the size of a keychain,during which its mass remains constant. By estimating the change in inter-atomic spacing, andthe resulting increase in Coulomb repulsion between atomic nuclei, the energy required for thiscompression is found to be approximately 7.08x10^15 J. This an extremely large amount of energy, making the possibility of such a situation infeasible

Can arterial wave augmentation in young adults help account for variability of cardiovascular risk in different British ethnic groups?

Objective: Traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not fully account for ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease. We tested if arterial function indices, particularly augmentation index (AIx), and their determinants from childhood could underlie such ethnic variability among young British adults in the 'DASH' longitudinal study. Methods: Dash, at http://dash.sphsu.mrc.ac.uk/, includes representative samples of six main British ethnic groups. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) and AIx were recorded using the Arteriograph device at ages 21-23 years in a subsample (n = 666); psychosocial, anthropometric, and blood pressure (BP) measures were collected then and in two previous surveys at ages 11-13 years and 14-16 years. For n = 334, physical activity was measured over 5 days (ActivPal). Results: Unadjusted values and regression models for PWVs were similar or lower in ethnic minority than in White UK young adults, whereas AIx was higher - Caribbean (14.9, 95% confidence interval 12.3-17.0%), West African (15.3, 12.9-17.7%), Indian (15.1, 13.0-17.2%), and Pakistani/Bangladeshi (15.7, 13.7-17.7%), compared with White UK (11.9, 10.2-13.6%). In multivariate models, adjusted for sex, central SBP, height, and heart rate, Indian and Pakistani/Bangladeshi young adults had higher AIx (β = 3.35, 4.20, respectively, P < 0.01) than White UK with a similar trend for West Africans and Caribbeans but not statistically significant. Unlike PWV, physical activity, psychosocial or deprivation measures were not associated with AIx, with borderline associations from brachial BP but no other childhood variables. Conclusion: Early adult AIx, but not arterial stiffness, may be a useful tool for testing components of excess cardiovascular risk in some ethnic minority groups

Daniel Klionsky: A full plate for autophagy

Klionsky proves that those who can, teach as well as do