Young People’s Differential Vulnerability to Criminogenic Exposure: Bridging The Gap Between People and Place Oriented Approaches in the Study of Crime Causation

The overall purpose of this study is to contribute to bridging the gap between people and place oriented approaches in the study of crime causation. To achieve this we will explore some core hypotheses derived from Situational Action Theory (SAT) about what makes young people crime prone and places criminogenic, and about the interaction between crime propensity and criminogenic exposure predicting crime events. We will also calculate the expected reduction in aggregate levels of crime that will occur as a result of successful interventions targeting crime propensity and criminogenic exposure. To test the hypotheses we will utilise a unique set of space-time budget, small area community survey, land use and interviewer-led questionnaire data from the prospective longitudinal Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Development Study (PADS+) and an Artificial Neural Network approach to modelling. The results show that people’s crime propensity (based on their personal morals and abilities to exercise self-control) has the bulk of predictive power, but also that including criminogenic exposure (being unsupervised with peers and engaged in unstructured activities in residential areas of poor collective efficacy or commercial centres) demonstrates a substantial increase in predictive power (in addition to crime propensity). Moreover, the results show that the probability of crime is strongest when a crime prone person takes part in a criminogenic setting and, crucially, that the higher a person’s crime propensity the more vulnerable he or she is to influences of criminogenic exposure. Finally, the findings suggest that a reduction in people’s crime propensity has a much bigger impact on their crime involvement than a reduction in their exposure to criminogenic settings.This research was supported by grants from the UK Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC grant ES/K010646/1); the European Research Council (grants IDCAB 220/104702003 and Momentum 324247) and Riksbankens Jubileumsfond - the Swedish Foundation for Humanities and Social Sciences

Exploring the equivalence of two common mixture models for duration data

The beta-geometric (BG) distribution and the Pareto distribution of the second kind (P(II)) are two basic models for duration-time data that share some underlying characteristics (i.e., continuous mixtures of memoryless distributions), but differ in two important respects: first, the BG is the natural model to use when the event of interest occurs in discrete time, while the P(II) is the right choice for a continuous-time setting. Second, the underlying mixing distributions (the beta and gamma for the BG and P(II), respectively, are very different—and often believed to be non-comparable with each other. Despite these and other key differences, the two models are strikingly similar in terms of their fit and predictive performance as well as their parameter estimates. We explore this equivalence, both empirically and analytically, and discuss the implications from both a substantive and methodological standpoint

Model for evaluating nuclear strategies with proliferation resistance

A model was developed at HEDL to specifically analyze proliferation resistant strategies. The model was not designed to predict the future, but rather to provide a method for estimating the consequences of decisions affecting proliferation resistance in a rational and plausible manner. The characteristics of the model are described

Reference Distorted Prices

I show that when consumers (mis)perceive prices relative to reference prices, budgets turn out to be soft, prices tend to be lower and the average quality of goods sold decreases. These observations provide explanations for decentralized purchase decisions, for people being happy with a purchase even when they have paid their evaluation, and for why trade might affect high quality local firms 'unfairly'

Ion Collisions in Very Strong Electric Fields

A Classical Trajectory Monte Carlo (CTMC) simulation has been made of processes of charge exchange and ionization between an hydrogen atom and fully stripped ions embedded in very strong static electric fields ($O(10^{10}$ V/m$)$), which are thought to exist in cosmic and laser--produced plasmas. Calculations show that the presence of the field affects absolute values of the cross sections, enhancing ionization and reducing charge exchange. Moreover, the overall effect depends upon the relative orientation between the field and the nuclear motion. Other features of a null-field situation, such as scaling laws, are revisited.Comment: Latex, 13 pages, 11 figures (available upon request), to be published in Journal of Physics

Cross section and analyzing power of pol{p}p -> pn pi+ near threshold

The cross section and analyzing power of the pol{p}p -> pn pi+ reaction near threshold are estimated in terms of data obtained from the pol{p}p -> d pi+ and pp -> pp pi0 reactions. A simple final state interaction theory is developed which depends weakly upon the form of the pion-production operator and includes some Coulomb corrections. Within the uncertainties of the model and the input data, the approach reproduces well the measured energy dependence of the total cross section and the proton analyzing power at a fixed pion c.m. angle of 90deg, from threshold to T_p = 330 MeV. The variation of the differential cross section with pion angle is also very encouraging.Comment: 20 pages, Latex including 4 eps figure

An argument for the use of Aristotelian method in bioethics

The main claim of this paper is that the method outlined and used in Aristotle's Ethics is an appropriate and credible one to use in bioethics. Here “appropriate” means that the method is capable of establishing claims and developing concepts in bioethics and “credible” that the method has some plausibility, it is not open to obvious and immediate objection. It begins by suggesting why this claim matters and then gives a brief outline of Aristotle's method. The main argument is made in three stages. First, it is argued that Aristotelian method is credible because it compares favourably with alternatives. In this section it is shown that Aristotelian method is not vulnerable to criticisms that are made both of methods that give a primary place to moral theory (such as utilitarianism) and those that eschew moral theory (such as casuistry and social science approaches). As such, it compares favourably with these other approaches that are vulnerable to at least some of these criticisms. Second, the appropriateness of Aristotelian method is indicated through outlining how it would deal with a particular case. Finally, it is argued that the success of Aristotle's philosophy is suggestive of both the credibility and appropriateness of his method.</p

Intraoperative and major postoperative complications and survival of dogs undergoing surgical management of epiglottic retroversion: 50 dogs (2003-2017)

Objective: To report intraoperative and major postoperative complications in dogs treated surgically for epiglottic retroversion (ER), compare the incidence of major postoperative complications between procedures, and report survival of surgically treated dogs. Study design: Multi-institutional retrospective study. Sample population: Fifty dogs treated with 78 procedures. Methods: Medical records of dogs diagnosed and surgically treated for ER from 2003 to 2017 at 11 institutions were reviewed. Complications were divided into intraoperative and major postoperative complications. Results: Intraoperative complications occurred during 2 of 78 (2.6%) procedures. Thirty-six major postoperative complications were documented in 22 dogs after 36 of 74 (48.7%) procedures. Postoperative complications occurred after 7 of 12 (58.3%) nonincisional epiglottopexy, 23 of 43 (53.5%) incisional epiglottopexy, 2 of 4 (50%) partial epiglottectomy, 2 of 12 (16.7%) subtotal epiglottectomy, and 2 of 3 (66.7%) other surgical procedures. Epiglottopexy failure was the most common major postoperative complication. The incidence of major postoperative complications did not differ between procedures (P =.1239), although, when combined, epiglottopexy procedures (30/55) had a higher incidence of complications than epiglottectomy procedures (4/16; P =.048). Thirty (60%) dogs were alive at a median of 928 days (range, 114-2805), 8 (16%) were lost to follow-up after 411 days (range, 43-1158), and 12 (24%) were dead/euthanized after 301.5 days (range, 3-1212). Median survival time was not reached after a median of 716 days. Conclusion: Although intraoperative complications were uncommon, major postoperative complications were common, especially after epiglottopexy procedures. Clinical significance: Although surgical treatment of ER is associated with a high rate of major postoperative complications, especially epiglottopexy procedures, long-term survival can be achieved

Adenosine-mono-phosphate-activated protein kinase-independent effects of metformin in T cells

The anti-diabetic drug metformin regulates T-cell responses to immune activation and is proposed to function by regulating the energy-stress-sensing adenosine-monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK). However, the molecular details of how metformin controls T cell immune responses have not been studied nor is there any direct evidence that metformin acts on T cells via AMPK. Here, we report that metformin regulates cell growth and proliferation of antigen-activated T cells by modulating the metabolic reprogramming that is required for effector T cell differentiation. Metformin thus inhibits the mammalian target of rapamycin complex I signalling pathway and prevents the expression of the transcription factors c-Myc and hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha. However, the inhibitory effects of metformin on T cells did not depend on the expression of AMPK in T cells. Accordingly, experiments with metformin inform about the importance of metabolic reprogramming for T cell immune responses but do not inform about the importance of AMPK