The Exposure of Swiss Banks to Macroeconomic Shocks - an Empirical Investigation

Assessing financial stability is an issue of rapidly growing importance to central banks and banking authorities. This paper explores an extensive panel data set of Swiss banks to identify macroeconomic influencing factors on bank profitability and to quantify their impact on bank capitalization. We find evidence of a significant effect of various macroeconomic variables as e.g. real growth or interest rate shocks on bank earnings. However, our results suggest that the Swiss banking system is quite robust against macroeconomic shocks. Only a joint occurrence of a recession, rising interest rates and falling stock prices would lead to substantial losses in the Swiss banking industry.banking, macroeconomic shocks, stress tests, credit risk, interestrate risk, Switzerland

Determining the economic gains from regulation at the extensive and intensive margins

Among the second-best approaches for the regulation of pollution, little attention has been paid to the distorting effect of intensive margin policies on the extensive margin. This article shows, within a dynamic framework, that regulation of the intensive margin has to be complemented by regulation of the extensive margin. Depending on the elasticity of the pollution function with respect to nitrogen use, the appropriate regulation at the extensive margin is zero, a tax or a subsidy. We show empirically that combining a nitrogen tax with land-use taxes is about 18 per cent more cost efficient than a nitrogen tax alone and 58 per cent more efficient than off-site abatement in the form of groundwater treatmen

Incidence of Atypical Femoral Fractures in Patients on Osteoporosis Therapy-A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

Atypical femoral fractures (AFFs) have been reported in patients taking bisphosphonates (BPs) for osteoporosis therapy but also in patients with no exposure to these drugs. In contrast, less is known about the incidence of AFFs in patients taking denosumab. This registry-based cohort study analyzed the incidence of AFFs in patients with suspected or confirmed osteoporosis who were included in the osteoporosis register of the Swiss Society of Rheumatology between January 2015 and September 2019. Statistical analyses included incidence rates, rate ratios, and hazard ratios for AFFs, and considered sequential therapies and drug holidays as time-dependent covariates. Among the 9956 subjects in the cohort, 53 had subtrochanteric or femoral shaft fractures. Ten fractures occurred under BP or denosumab treatment and two under teriparatide therapy. Five fractures were classified as AFFs based on the revised American Society of Bone and Mineral Research case definition of AFFs from 2014. Three AFFs occurred in women being treated with denosumab at the time of diagnosis, all with prior BP use (10, 7, and 1 years, respectively). One AFF developed in a woman receiving ibandronate and one arose in a woman receiving glucocorticoids rather than antiresorptive therapy. The incidence of AFFs per 10,000 observed patient-years was 7.1 in patients receiving denosumab and 0.9 in patients with BP-associated AFFs, yielding a rate ratio of 7.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-413), p = 0.073. The risk of AFFs was not significantly higher in patients receiving denosumab therapy compared with BP therapy (hazard ratio = 7.07, 95% CI 0.74-68.01, p = 0.090). We conclude that the risk of AFFs is low in patients taking BPs, denosumab, or both sequentially. All three patients with AFFs under denosumab therapy had undergone prior BP therapy. © 2022 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research

Comparison of anti-fracture effectiveness of zoledronate, ibandronate and alendronate versus denosumab in a registry-based cohort study.

UNLABELLED This registry-based study of 3068 patients with osteoporosis compared the anti-fracture effectiveness of denosumab versus bisphosphonates. Denosumab was associated with significantly greater risk reduction than alendronate or ibandronate for vertebral and any fractures. No difference in fracture risk reduction was found between zoledronate and denosumab. PURPOSE To analyse the fracture risk of patients with osteoporosis receiving bisphosphonates or denosumab in a real-world setting. METHODS This registry-based cohort study evaluated patients taking denosumab, bisphosphonates or both sequentially. Fractures were analysed using rates, rate ratios and hazard ratios (HR), including both therapies as time-varying co-variates. Fracture risk hazards were adjusted (aHR) for baseline T-Scores and trabecular bone score (TBS) and were additionally analysed with inverse probability treatment weighting. RESULTS A total of 3068 patients (89% female; median age at treatment onset, 69 years [63 to 76]) received denosumab (median duration 2.8 years, [2.2 to 4.7]), bisphosphonates (3.4 years, [2.1 to 5.7]) or both sequentially. Thus, 11,078 subject-years were assessed for bisphosphonates (41% alendronate, 36% ibandronate, 23% zoledronate) and 4216 for denosumab. Moreover, 48,375 subject-years were observed before treatment onset, in addition to 2593 years of drug holidays. A total of 1481 vertebral fractures (435 under therapy), 1508 non-vertebral fractures (499 under therapy) and 202 hip fractures (67 under therapy) occurred after age 50. The risks of vertebral, non-vertebral and hip fractures were significantly lower under all bisphosphonates, denosumab and drug holidays than before treatment onset (all p < 0.001). After adjusting for age, baseline T-scores and TBS, denosumab was associated with lower risk than alendronate or ibandronate for vertebral fractures (aHR 0.47 (0.35 to 0.64) and 0.70 [0.53 to 0.91], p < 0.001 and p = 0.009, respectively) and any fractures (aHR 0.62 [0.51 to 0.76] and 0.77 [0.64 to 0.92], p < 0.001 and p = 0.004). With propensity weighting, denosumab was associated with a lower hip fracture risk compared to alendronate (HR 0.54 [0.29 to 0.98], p = 0.044). No difference in fracture risk reduction (vertebral, non-vertebral or hip) was found between zoledronate and denosumab. CONCLUSIONS When adjusting for disease severity, denosumab was associated with significantly greater risk reduction than alendronate and ibandronate for vertebral fractures. No difference in fracture risk reduction was found between zoledronate and denosumab

Innovation and risk selection in deregulated social health insurance

One important motive for deregulating social health insurance is to encourage product innovation. For the first time, the cost savings achieved by non-US managed care plans that are attributable to product innovation are estimated, using a novel approach. Panel data from a major Swiss health insurer permits to infer health status, which can be used to predict health care expenditure. The econometric evidence suggests that the managed care plans benefit from risk selection effects. In the case of the health maintenance organization (HMO) plan, however, the pure innovation effect may account for as much as two-thirds of the cost advantage

Decoding simulation.

<p>Simulated decoding performance of grip type and spatial factors for different frequency bands (slow: green, beta: red, low gamma: blue, high gamma: cyan, and all bands combined: black curves) and both animals (animal P: A-E, animal S: F-J). Individual panels show the decoding performance for grip type (A, F), the13 different spatial conditions (B,G), as well as for target (C,H), gaze (D,I), and retinotopic target position (E,J) separately for all task epochs. Dashed horizontal lines indicate chance level, and error bars the standard deviation after 100 simulated decoding repetitions.</p