Inference on Treatment Effects After Selection Amongst High-Dimensional Controls

We propose robust methods for inference on the effect of a treatment variable on a scalar outcome in the presence of very many controls. Our setting is a partially linear model with possibly non-Gaussian and heteroscedastic disturbances. Our analysis allows the number of controls to be much larger than the sample size. To make informative inference feasible, we require the model to be approximately sparse; that is, we require that the effect of confounding factors can be controlled for up to a small approximation error by conditioning on a relatively small number of controls whose identities are unknown. The latter condition makes it possible to estimate the treatment effect by selecting approximately the right set of controls. We develop a novel estimation and uniformly valid inference method for the treatment effect in this setting, called the "post-double-selection" method. Our results apply to Lasso-type methods used for covariate selection as well as to any other model selection method that is able to find a sparse model with good approximation properties. The main attractive feature of our method is that it allows for imperfect selection of the controls and provides confidence intervals that are valid uniformly across a large class of models. In contrast, standard post-model selection estimators fail to provide uniform inference even in simple cases with a small, fixed number of controls. Thus our method resolves the problem of uniform inference after model selection for a large, interesting class of models. We illustrate the use of the developed methods with numerical simulations and an application to the effect of abortion on crime rates

How many nucleosynthesis processes exist at low metallicity?

Abundances of low-metallicity stars offer a unique opportunity to understand the contribution and conditions of the different processes that synthesize heavy elements. Many old, metal-poor stars show a robust abundance pattern for elements heavier than Ba, and a less robust pattern between Sr and Ag. Here we probe if two nucleosynthesis processes are sufficient to explain the stellar abundances at low metallicity, and we carry out a site independent approach to separate the contribution from these two processes or components to the total observationally derived abundances. Our approach provides a method to determine the contribution of each process to the production of elements such as Sr, Zr, Ba, and Eu. We explore the observed star-to-star abundance scatter as a function of metallicity that each process leads to. Moreover, we use the deduced abundance pattern of one of the nucleosynthesis components to constrain the astrophysical conditions of neutrino-driven winds from core-collapse supernovae.Comment: 13 pages, published in Ap

Dislocation subgrain structures and modeling the plastic hardening of metallic single crystals

A single crystal plasticity theory for insertion into finite element simulation is formulated using sequential laminates to model subgrain dislocation structures. It is known that local models do not adequately account for latent hardening, as latent hardening is not only a material property, but a nonlocal property (e.g. grain size and shape). The addition of the nonlocal energy from the formation of subgrain structure dislocation walls and the boundary layer misfits provide both latent and self-hardening of a crystal slip. Latent hardening occurs as the formation of new dislocation walls limits motion of new mobile dislocations, thus hardening future slip systems. Self-hardening is accomplished by an evolution of the subgrain structure length scale. The substructure length scale is computed by minimizing the nonlocal energy. The minimization of the nonlocal energy is a competition between the dislocation wall energy and the boundary layer energies. The nonlocal terms are also directly minimized within the subgrain model as they affect deformation response. The geometrical relationship between the dislocation walls and slip planes affecting the dislocation mean free path is taken into account, giving a first-order approximation to shape effects. A coplanar slip model is developed due to requirements while modeling the subgrain structure. This subgrain structure plasticity model is noteworthy as all material parameters are experimentally determined rather than fit. The model also has an inherit path dependence due to the formation of the subgrain structures. Validation is accomplished by comparison with single crystal tension test results

A comparative study of two 47 Tuc giant stars with different s-process enrichment

Here we aim to understand the origin of 47 Tuc's La-rich star Lee 4710. We report abundances for O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Zn, Y, Zr, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, and Eu, and present a detailed abundance analysis of two 47 Tuc stars with similar stellar parameters but different slow neutron-capture (s-)process enrichment. Star Lee 4710 has the highest known La abundance ratio in this cluster ([La/Fe] = 1.14), and star Lee 4626 is known to have normal s-process abundances (e.g., [Ba/Eu]$<0$). The nucleosynthetic pattern of elements with Z$\gtrsim$56 for star Lee 4710 agrees with the predicted yields of a $1.3M_{\odot}$ asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star. Therefore, Lee 4710 may have been enriched by mass transfer from a more massive AGB companion, which is compatible with its location far away from the center of this relatively metal-rich ([Fe/H]$\sim-0.7$) globular cluster. A further analysis comparing the abundance pattern of Lee 4710 with data available in the literature reveals that nine out of the $\sim200$ 47 Tuc stars previously studied show strong s-process enhancements that point towards later enrichment by more massive AGB stars.Comment: ApJL in press. 6 pages, 4 figure

The crash involvement of interstate drivers in Queensland

Previous research has suggested that driving interstate is more hazardous than driving in one’s home state. However, the increased risk does not appear to be due to greater risk-taking by these drivers, but due to the greater distances they travel, particularly on rural roads, and associated problems such as fatigue. To further examine this issue, an analysis was undertaken of all reported crashes involving interstate drivers that occurred in Queensland between 1993 and 1998. During this period, interstate drivers represented 5% of all drivers involved in fatal and serious injury crashes in Queensland. The analysis indicated that the crashes involving interstate drivers were no more likely to involve factors such as alcohol, speeding, inattention/negligence or inexperience. Rather, the crash involvement patterns of interstate drivers appear to relate more to the type and location of their driving. For example, in Queensland interstate drivers are over-represented in crashes involving: open road driving; driver fatigue; the overturning and sideswiping of vehicles; and weekend travel. Interstate drivers were also more likely to be considered at fault for the crashes they were involved in, compared with local drivers

The QCD Critical End Point in the Context of the Polyakov--Nambu--Jona-Lasinio Model

We investigate the phase diagram of the so-called Polyakov--Nambu--Jona-Lasinio model at finite temperature and nonzero chemical potential with three quark flavors. Chiral and deconfinement phase transitions are discussed, and the relevant order-like parameters are analyzed. A special attention is payed to the critical end point (CEP): the influence of the strangeness on the location of the CEP is studied; also the strength of the flavor-mixing interaction alters the CEP location, once when it becomes weaker the CEP moves to low temperatures and can even disappear.Comment: Prepared for Strangeness in Quark Matter 2011, Sept. 18--24, Cracow, Polan

Exploring the role of model parameters and regularization procedures in the thermodynamics of the PNJL model

The equation of state and the critical behavior around the critical end point are studied in the context of the Polyakov--Nambu--Jona--Lasinio model. We prove that a convenient choice of the model parameters is crucial to get the correct description of isentropic trajectories. The physical relevance of the effects of the regularization procedure is insured by the agreement with general thermodynamic requirements. The results are compared with simple thermodynamic expectations and lattice data.Comment: Talk given at XIII International Conference on Hadron Spectroscopy (Hadron 2009), Tallahassee, Florida, USA, 29 Nov - 4 Dec, 200

How parameters and regularization affect the PNJL model phase diagram and thermodynamic quantities

We explore the phase diagram and the critical behavior of QCD thermodynamic quantities in the context of the so-called Polyakov--Nambu--Jona-Lasinio model. We show that this improved field theoretical model is a successful candidate for studying the equation of state and the critical behavior around the critical end point. We argue that a convenient choice of the model parameters is crucial to get the correct description of isentropic trajectories. The effects of the regularization procedure in several thermodynamic quantities is also analyzed. The results are compared with simple thermodynamic expectations and lattice data.Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables; PRD versio

Wind tunnel measurements in the wake of a simple structure in a simulated atmospheric flow

Measurements of longitudinal mean velocity and turbulence intensity were made in the wake of a rectangular model building in a simulated atmospheric boundary-layer wind. The model building was a 1:50 scale model of a structure used in a wake measurement program at the George C. Marshall Space Flight Center 8-tower boundary-layer facility. The approach wind profile and measurement locations were chosen to match the field site conditions. The wakes of the building in winds from azimuths of 0 and 47 degrees referenced to the normal to the building long axis were examined. The effect of two lines of trees upwind of the building on the wake and the importance of the ratio of the building height to boundary-layer thickness on the extent of the wake were determined