Climate change could threaten blood supply by altering the distribution of vector-borne disease: an Australian case-study

BACKGROUND Climate change is expected to promote more intense and prolonged outbreaks of vector-borne disease, and alter the geographic boundaries of transmission. This has implications for the safety and supply of fresh blood products around the world. In Australia, a recent outbreak of dengue fever caused a prolonged regional shortage in the supply of fresh blood products. OBJECTIVE To highlight the potential for climate change to affect the safety and supply of blood globally through its impact on vector-borne disease, using the example of dengue in Australia as a case-study. DESIGN We modelled geographic regions in Australia suitable for dengue transmission over the coming century under four climate change scenarios, estimated changes to the population at risk and effect on blood supply. RESULTS Geographic regions with climates that are favourable to dengue transmission could expand to include large population centres in a number of currently dengue-free regions in Australia and reduce blood supply across several states. CONCLUSION Unless there is strong intergovernmental action on greenhouse gas reduction, there could be an eight-fold increase in the number of people living in dengue prone regions in Australia by the end of the century. Similar impacts will be experienced elsewhere and for other vector-borne diseases, with regions currently on the margins of transmission zones most affected. Globally, climate change is likely to compound existing problems of blood safety and supply in already endemic areas and cause future shortages in fresh blood products through its impact on transmission of vector-borne disease.This work was partially funded by the Australian Federal Government’s Garnaut Climate Change Review and the School of Medicine, University of Western Sydney internal grant scheme

A comparison of methods for calculating population exposure estimates of daily weather for health research

BACKGROUND: To explain the possible effects of exposure to weather conditions on population health outcomes, weather data need to be calculated at a level in space and time that is appropriate for the health data. There are various ways of estimating exposure values from raw data collected at weather stations but the rationale for using one technique rather than another; the significance of the difference in the values obtained; and the effect these have on a research question are factors often not explicitly considered. In this study we compare different techniques for allocating weather data observations to small geographical areas and different options for weighting averages of these observations when calculating estimates of daily precipitation and temperature for Australian Postal Areas. Options that weight observations based on distance from population centroids and population size are more computationally intensive but give estimates that conceptually are more closely related to the experience of the population. RESULTS: Options based on values derived from sites internal to postal areas, or from nearest neighbour sites – that is, using proximity polygons around weather stations intersected with postal areas – tended to include fewer stations' observations in their estimates, and missing values were common. Options based on observations from stations within 50 kilometres radius of centroids and weighting of data by distance from centroids gave more complete estimates. Using the geographic centroid of the postal area gave estimates that differed slightly from the population weighted centroids and the population weighted average of sub-unit estimates. CONCLUSION: To calculate daily weather exposure values for analysis of health outcome data for small areas, the use of data from weather stations internal to the area only, or from neighbouring weather stations (allocated by the use of proximity polygons), is too limited. The most appropriate method conceptually is the use of weather data from sites within 50 kilometres radius of the area weighted to population centres, but a simpler acceptable option is to weight to the geographic centroid

Suicide and drought in New South Wales, Australia, 1970-2007

There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change

Evaluation of interventions to reduce air pollution from biomass smoke on mortality in Launceston, Australia: Retrospective analysis of daily mortality, 1994-2007

Objective To assess the effect of reductions in air pollution from biomass smoke on daily mortality. Design Age stratified time series analysis of daily mortality with Poisson regression models adjusted for the effects of temperature, humidity, day of week, respiratory epidemics, and secular mortality trends, applied to an intervention and control community. Setting Central Launceston, Australia, a town in which coordinated strategies were implemented to reduce pollution from wood smoke and central Hobart, a comparable city in which there were no specific air quality interventions. Participants 67 000 residents of central Launceston and 148 000 residents of central Hobart (at 2001 census). Interventions Community education campaigns, enforcement of environmental regulations, and a wood heater replacement programme to reduce ambient pollution from residential wood stoves started in the winter of 2001. Main outcome measures Changes in daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality during the 6.5 year periods before and after June 2001 in Launceston and Hobart. Results Mean daily wintertime concentration of PM(10) (particulate matter with particle size <10 µm diameter) fell from 44 µg/m(3) during 1994-2000 to 27 µg/m(3) during 2001-07 in Launceston. The period of improved air quality was associated with small non-significant reductions in annual mortality. In males the observed reductions in annual mortality were larger and significant for all cause (−11.4%, 95% confidence interval −19.2% to −2.9%; P=0.01), cardiovascular (−17.9%, −30.6% to −2.8%; P=0.02), and respiratory (−22.8%, −40.6% to 0.3%; P=0.05) mortality. In wintertime reductions in cardiovascular (−19.6%, −36.3% to 1.5%; P=0.06) and respiratory (−27.9%, −49.5% to 3.1%; P=0.07) mortality were of borderline significance (males and females combined). There were no significant changes in mortality in the control city of Hobart. Conclusions Decreased air pollution from ambient biomass smoke was associated with reduced annual mortality in males and with reduced cardiovascular and respiratory mortality during winter months

The impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in the Greater Metropolitan Sydney Region: A case crossover analysis

Background: This study examined the association between unusually high temperature and daily mortality (1997-2007) and hospital admissions (1997-2010) in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) to assist in the development of targeted health program

Suicide and drought in New South Wales, Australia, 1970–2007

There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change

Long-term exposure to low concentrations of air pollutants and hospitalisation for respiratory diseases:A prospective cohort study in Australia

Background: Short- and long-term spatiotemporal variation in exposure to air pollution is associated with respiratory morbidity in areas with moderate-to-high level of air pollution, but very few studies have examined whether these associations also exist in areas with low level exposure. Objectives: We assessed the association between spatial variation in long-term exposure to PM and NO and hospitalisation for all respiratory diseases, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and pneumonia, in older adults residing in Sydney, Australia, a city with low-level concentrations. Methods: We recorded data on hospitalisations for 100,084 participants, who were aged >45 years at entry in 2006–2009 until June 2014. Annual NO and PM concentrations were estimated for the participants’ residential addresses and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model the association between exposure to air pollutants and first episode of hospitalisation, controlling for personal and area level covariates. We further investigated the shape of the exposure-response association and potential effect modification by age, sex, education level, smoking status, and BMI. Results: NO and PM annual mean exposure estimates were 17.5 μg·m and 4.5 μg·m respectively. NO and PM was positively, although not significantly, associated with asthma. The adjusted hazard ratio for a 1 μg·m increase in PM was 1.08, 95% confidence interval 0.89–1.30. The adjusted hazard ratio for a 5 μg·m increase in NO was 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.88–1.19. We found no positive statistically significant associations with hospitalisation for all respiratory diseases, and pneumonia while negative associations were observed with COPD. Conclusions: We found weak positive associations of exposure to air pollution with hospitalisation for asthma while there was no evidence of an association for all respiratory diseases

All-cause mortality and long-term exposure to low level air pollution in the ‘45 and up study’ cohort, Sydney, Australia, 2006–2015

Epidemiological studies show that long-term exposure to ambient air pollution reduces life expectancy. Most studies have been in environments with relatively high concentrations such as North America, Europe and Asia. Associations at the lower end of the concentration-response function are not well defined.We assessed associations between all-cause mortality and exposure to annual average particulate matte

Development of a cloud-based platform for reproducible science: a case study of an IUCN red list of ecosystems assessment

One of the challenges of computational-centric research is to make the research undertaken reproducible in a form that others can repeat and re-use with minimal effort. In addition to the data and tools necessary to re-run analyses, execution environments play crucial roles because of the dependencies of the operating system and software version used. However, some of the challenges of reproducible science can be addressed using appropriate computational tools and cloud computing to provide an execution environment. Here, we demonstrate the use of a Kepler scientific workflow for reproducible science that is sharable, reusable, and re-executable. These workflows reduce barriers to sharing and will save researchers time when undertaking similar research in the future. To provide infrastructure that enables reproducible science, we have developed cloud-based Collaborative Environment for Ecosystem Science Research and Analysis (CoESRA) infrastructure to build, execute and share sophisticated computation-centric research. The CoESRA provides users with a storage and computational platform that is accessible from a web-browser in the form of a virtual desktop. Any registered user can access the virtual desktop to build, execute and share the Kepler workflows. This approach will enable computational scientists to share complete workflows in a pre-configured environment so that others can reproduce the computational research with minimal effort. As a case study, we developed and shared a complete IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessment workflow that reproduces the assessments undertaken by Burns et al. (2015) on Mountain Ash forests in the Central Highlands of Victoria, Australia. This workflow provides an opportunity for other researchers and stakeholders to run this assessment with minimal supervision. The workflow also enables researchers to re-evaluate the assessment when additional data becomes available. The assessment can be run in a CoESRA virtual desktop by opening a workflow in a Kepler user interface and pressing a “start” button. The workflow is pre-configured with all the open access datasets and writes results to a pre-configured folder