Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Latent classes of sexual risk behavior and engagement in outreach, intervention and prevention services among women who inject drugs across 20 U.S. cities

Background. Monitoring the effects of HIV prevention efforts among persons who inject drugs (PWID) is key to informing prevention programs and policy. Methods. Data for this study came from the 2012 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance interviews with PWID across 20 U.S. cities. The present analyses include those who identified as female, ever had sex with a man, and were at risk for HIV infection (did not report a previous positive HIV test result) (n = 2,624). We conducted latent class analysis (LCA) to identify sexual risk classes, and modeled associations with engagement in HIV prevention services and HIV test results. Results. We identified six classes of sexual risk behavior: 1) low risk, 2) monogamous, 3) casual partner, 4) multiple partner, 5) exchange sex, and 6) exchange plus main partner. The class distribution was similar across the mainland regions. Bisexual orientation and homelessness were significant predictors of higher risk class. HIV prevalence and participation in behavioral interventions did not vary significantly by risk class, while obtaining and using free condoms did. Independent of risk class, women in cities in the South were significantly less likely to use free condoms, and HIV prevalence was higher among non-Hispanic black women and women aged 40-49. Conclusions. Bisexual orientation and homelessness were predictors of higher risk. Condom distribution programs reached fewer women in cities in the South. Race and age disparities in HIV-positive rates persisted after adjusting for sexual risk class

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00152-1LANCET HIV810E633-E65