Keynote Lecture – The Interplay of Multiple Hazards and Urban Development: The context of Istanbul

Tomorrow’s Cities is the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) Urban Disaster Risk Hub – an interdisciplinary research hub with the aim to catalyse a transition from crisis management to multi-hazard risk-informed and inclusive planning in four cities in low-and-middle income countries. Istanbul in Turkey is one of the four cities investigated. It is one of the largest urban agglomerations in Europe where more than 15 million people reside in more than 1 million buildings. Considering that the population was 4.75 million in 1980, Istanbul’s urban sprawl was inevitable. Due to an imbalance between the population growth and housing supply, Istanbul’s urbanization was shaped by illegal construction processes producing the gecekondus in almost every part of the city (Gencer and Mentese, 2016). Unplanned urban expansion was so rapid that the urban master plan of 1980, which set the limits and strategies for urban development, became completely invalid by 1989 (Tapan, 1998). This situation led to the development of a new urban master plan in 1994 that included geoscientific analysis, and which highlighted the possibility of losses due to an earthquake on the segments of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Sea. Uncontrolled and unplanned development continued in Istanbul until 1999 when two major earthquakes hit the region causing at least 18.000 deaths and $16 billion economic loss. These events changed the authorities’ perspective to earthquake risk and its mitigation. As a result, the 1998 earthquake resistant design code (published one year before the 1999 earthquakes) was widely embraced and implemented. Furthermore, several urban transformation projects have taken place in the last 20 years for reducing disaster risk. These have had varied success, with research to date showing that areas selected for urban transformation were often chosen on the basis of land value rather than hazard risk, and that a pro-poor approach is missing. Despite these efforts, Istanbul’s earthquake risk remains high. Furthermore, recent urban development plans are seeing the city expand into undeveloped lands to the west, increasing exposure to new hazards, namely flash flooding and landslides. The combined impact of these hazards is not evenly distributed, and the associated risks are heightened by poor infrastructural resilience and social vulnerabilities. Therefore, it is crucial to integrate different types of hazards and risks into the urban development context for future scenarios, so that a physically and socio-economically safer development that prioritizes the wellbeing of local communities can be facilitated. This presentation summarises the research conducted in Istanbul over the first 18 months of the Tomorrow’s Cities Project by a consortium of Turkish and UK researchers. This research spans the better characterisation of earthquake and landslide hazards, development of analysis methods for predicting the response of case study buildings to multiple hazards and a Bayesian network based approach for assessing road infrastructure resilience under multiple hazard scenarios. Furthermore, plans for building a Resilient Urban Development Decision Support Environment (RUD-DSE) for communicating the relevance of this research on future urban planning is described

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Supplementary data: The following is the Supplementary data to this article: Acrobat PDF file (2MB) available at: https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212420921007329-mmc1.pdfCopyright © 2022 The Authors. Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures.COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology); Royal Society, UK (grant number CHL\R1\180173); Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (CEX 2018-000797-S) funded by MCIN/ AEI /10.13039/501100011033; Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network, and the Lloyd's Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute

Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious), infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings) and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities). Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard

Empirical fragility assessment after the January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake

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