Explicit Modeling of Ancestry Improves Polygenic Risk Scores and BLUP Prediction

Polygenic prediction using genome-wide SNPs can provide high prediction accuracy for complex traits. Here, we investigate the question of how to account for genetic ancestry when conducting polygenic prediction. We show that the accuracy of polygenic prediction in structured populations may be partly due to genetic ancestry. However, we hypothesized that explicitly modeling ancestry could improve polygenic prediction accuracy. We analyzed three GWAS of hair color (HC), tanning ability (TA), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in European Americans (sample size from 7,440 to 9,822) and considered two widely used polygenic prediction approaches: polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). We compared polygenic prediction without correction for ancestry to polygenic prediction with ancestry as a separate component in the model. In 10-fold cross-validation using the PRS approach, the R(2) for HC increased by 66% (0.0456-0.0755; P < 10(-16)), the R(2) for TA increased by 123% (0.0154 to 0.0344; P < 10(-16)), and the liability-scale R(2) for BCC increased by 68% (0.0138-0.0232; P < 10(-16)) when explicitly modeling ancestry, which prevents ancestry effects from entering into each SNP effect and being overweighted. Surprisingly, explicitly modeling ancestry produces a similar improvement when using the BLUP approach, which fits all SNPs simultaneously in a single variance component and causes ancestry to be underweighted. We validate our findings via simulations, which show that the differences in prediction accuracy will increase in magnitude as sample sizes increase. In summary, our results show that explicitly modeling ancestry can be important in both PRS and BLUP prediction

Cutaneous nevi and internal cancer risk: Results from two large prospective cohorts of US women

Elevated cutaneous nevus number has been linked to longer telomeres. Recently, a large systematic Mendelian randomization study identified a significant positive association between telomere length and risk of cancer. Here, we hypothesized that higher nevus count, as a phenotypic marker of longer telomere, may be associated with increased risk of internal cancer, and prospectively examined the association between nevus count and total as well as site‐specific cancer risk among participants in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS, 1986–2012) and the Nurses’ Health Study 2 (NHS2, 1989–2013) using Cox proportional hazards models. During 3,900,264 person‐years of follow‐up, we documented a total of 23,004 internal cancer cases (15,484 in the NHS and 7,520 in the NHS2). Compared to participants who had no nevi, the multivariate hazard ratios of total cancer (excluding skin cancer) were 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.09) for women with 1–5 nevi, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.03–1.15) for those who had 6–14 nevi and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.05–1.35) for those with 15 or more nevi (p trend <0.0001). Moreover, because nevus count has been associated with risk of breast cancer previously, we conducted a secondary analysis by excluding breast cancer from the outcomes of interest. The results were very similar to those of our primary analysis. For individual cancer, most of the associations with nevus count were positive but not statistically significant. In conclusion, we identified the number of cutaneous nevi as a phenotypic marker associated with internal cancer risk, which may be explained by telomere biology

Caffeine Intake, Coffee Consumption, and Risk of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma

BACKGROUND: Caffeine has been shown to prevent ultraviolet radiation-induced carcinogenesis and to inhibit growth of melanoma cells in experimental studies. We evaluated the association among caffeine intake, coffee consumption, and melanoma risk among three large cohort studies. METHODS: The analysis used data from 89,220 women in the Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2009), 74,666 women in the Nurses' Health Study (1980-2008), and 39,424 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2008). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of melanoma associated with dietary intakes. RESULTS: We documented 2,254 melanoma cases over 4 million person-years of follow-up. After adjustment for other risk factors, higher total caffeine intake was associated with a lower risk of melanoma (≥393 mg/day vs. <60 mg/day: HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.64, 0.96; Ptrend = 0.048). The association was more apparent in women (≥393 mg/day vs. <60 mg/day: HR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.58, 0.85; Ptrend = 0.001) than in men (HR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.75, 1.2; Ptrend = 0.81), and more apparent for melanomas occurring on body sites with higher continuous sun exposure (head, neck, and extremities; ≥393 mg/day vs. <60 mg/day: HR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.59, 0.86; Ptrend = 0.001) than for melanomas occurring on body sites with lower continuous sun exposure (trunk including shoulder, back, hip, abdomen, and chest; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.70, 1.2; Ptrend = 0.60). This pattern of association was similar to that for caffeinated coffee consumption, whereas no association was found for decaffeinated coffee consumption and melanoma risk. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing caffeine intake and caffeinated coffee consumption is associated with decreased risk of cutaneous malignant melanomas

Association study of genetic variation in DNA repair pathway genes and risk of basal cell carcinoma

DNA repair plays a critical role in protecting the genome from ultraviolet radiation and maintaining the genomic integrity of cells. Genetic variants in DNA repair-related genes can influence an individual's DNA repair capacity, which may be related to the risk of developing basal cell carcinoma (BCC). We comprehensively assessed the associations of 2,965 independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across 165 DNA repair pathway genes with BCC risk in a genome-wide association meta-analysis totaling 17,187 BCC cases and 287,054 controls from two data sets. After multiple testing corrections, we identified three SNPs (rs2805831 upstream of XPA: OR = 0.93, P = 1.35 × 10-6 ; rs659857 in exon of MUS81: OR = 1.06, P = 3.09 × 10-6 and rs57343616 in 3' UTR of NABP2: OR = 1.11, P = 6.47 × 10-6 ) as significantly associated with BCC risk in meta-analysis, and all of them were nominally significant in both data sets. Furthermore, rs659857 [T] was significantly associated with decreased expression of MUS81 mRNA in the expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analysis. Our findings suggest that the inherited common variation in three DNA repair genes-XPA, MUS81 and NABP2-may be involved in the development of BCC. To our knowledge, our study is the first report thoroughly examining the effects of SNPs across DNA repair pathway genes on BCC risk based on a genome-wide association meta-analysis

Teenage acne and cancer risk in U.S. women: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Acne reflects hormone imbalance and is a key component of several systemic diseases. We hypothesized that diagnosis of acne as a teenager might predict subsequent risk of hormone-related cancers. METHODS: We followed 99,128 female nurses in the Nurses' Health Study II cohort for 20 years (1989-2009) and used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of 8 specific cancers (breast, thyroid, colorectal, ovarian, cervical, and endometrial cancers, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma) for women with a history of severe teenage acne. RESULTS: After thoroughly adjusting for the previously known risk factors for each cancer, we found that among women with a history of severe teenage acne, the relative risk increased, with a multivariable-adjusted HR of 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-2.01) for melanoma. We replicated this association in an independent melanoma case-control study of 930 cases and 1026 controls (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.56). We also found that in both studies the individuals with teenage acne were more likely to have moles (52.7% vs 50.1%, P < .001 in the cohort study; and 55.2% vs 45.1%, P = .004 in the case-control study). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a history of teenage acne might be a novel risk factor for melanoma independent from the known factors, which supports a need for continued investigation of these relationships

Genome-Wide Association Study of Tanning Phenotype in a Population of European Ancestry

We conducted a multistage genome-wide association study (GWAS) of tanning response after exposure to sunlight in over 9,000 men and women of European ancestry who live in the United States. An initial analysis of 528,173 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genotyped on 2,287 women identified LOC401937 (rs966321) on chromosome 1 as a novel locus highly associated with tanning ability, and we confirmed this association in 870 women controls from a skin cancer case–control study with joint P-value=1.6 × 10−9. We further genotyped this SNP in two subsequent replication studies (one with 3,750 women and the other with 2,405 men). This association was not replicated in either of these two studies. We found that several SNPs reaching the genome-wide significance level are located in or adjacent to the loci previously known as pigmentation genes: MATP, IRF4, TYR, OCA2, and MC1R. Overall, these tanning ability–related loci are similar to the hair color–related loci previously reported in the GWAS of hair color

A Genome-Wide Association Study Identifies Novel Alleles Associated with Hair Color and Skin Pigmentation

We conducted a multi-stage genome-wide association study of natural hair color in more than 10,000 men and women of European ancestry from the United States and Australia. An initial analysis of 528,173 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genotyped on 2,287 women identified IRF4 and SLC24A4 as loci highly associated with hair color, along with three other regions encompassing known pigmentation genes. We confirmed these associations in 7,028 individuals from three additional studies. Across these four studies, SLC24A4 rs12896399 and IRF4 rs12203592 showed strong associations with hair color, with p = 6.0×10−62 and p = 7.46×10−127, respectively. The IRF4 SNP was also associated with skin color (p = 6.2×10−14), eye color (p = 6.1×10−13), and skin tanning response to sunlight (p = 3.9×10−89). A multivariable analysis pooling data from the initial GWAS and an additional 1,440 individuals suggested that the association between rs12203592 and hair color was independent of rs1540771, a SNP between the IRF4 and EXOC2 genes previously found to be associated with hair color. After adjustment for rs12203592, the association between rs1540771 and hair color was not significant (p = 0.52). One variant in the MATP gene was associated with hair color. A variant in the HERC2 gene upstream of the OCA2 gene showed the strongest and independent association with hair color compared with other SNPs in this region, including three previously reported SNPs. The signals detected in a region around the MC1R gene were explained by MC1R red hair color alleles. Our results suggest that the IRF4 and SLC24A4 loci are associated with human hair color and skin pigmentation

Genetic variants in FGFR2 and FGFR4 genes and skin cancer risk in the Nurses' Health Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The human fibroblast growth factor (FGF) and its receptor (FGFR) play an important role in tumorigenesis. Deregulation of the <it>FGFR2 </it>gene has been identified in a number of cancer sites. Overexpression of the <it>FGFR4 </it>protein has been linked to cutaneous melanoma progression. Previous studies reported associations between genetic variants in the <it>FGFR2 </it>and <it>FGFR4 </it>genes and development of various cancers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluated the associations of four genetic variants in the <it>FGFR2 </it>gene highly related to breast cancer risk and the three common tag-SNPs in the <it>FGFR4 </it>gene with skin cancer risk in a nested case-control study of Caucasians within the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) among 218 melanoma cases, 285 squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases, 300 basal cell carcinoma (BCC) cases, and 870 controls.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found no evidence for associations between these seven genetic variants and the risks of melanoma and nonmelanocytic skin cancer.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Given the power of this study, we did not detect any contribution of genetic variants in the <it>FGFR2 </it>or <it>FGFR4 </it>genes to inherited predisposition to skin cancer among Caucasian women.</p