GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION METHODS

Training a neural network is a difficult optimization problem because of numerous local minimums. Many global search algorithms have been used to train neural networks. However, local search algorithms are more efficient with computational resources, and therefore numerous random restarts with a local algorithm may be more effective than a global algorithm. This study uses Monte-Carlo simulations to determine the relative efficiency of a local search algorithm to 9 stochastic global algorithms. The computational requirements of the global algorithms are several times higher than the local algorithm and there is little gain in using the global algorithms to train neural networks.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Comparison of Stochastic Global Optimization Methods: Estimating Neural Network Weights

Agricultural Economic

Forecasting Hog Prices with a Neural Network

Neural network models were compared to traditional forecasting methods in forecasting the quarterly and monthly farm price of hogs. A quarterly neural network model forecasted poorly in comparison to a quarterly econometric model. A monthly neural network model outperformed a monthly ARIMA model with respect to the mean square error criterion and performed similarly to the ARIMA model with respect to turning point accuracy. The more positive results of the monthly neural network model in comparison to the quarterly neural network model may be due to nonlinearities in the monthly data which are not in the quarterly data

GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION METHODS

Training a neural network is a difficult optimization problem because of numerous local minimums. Many global search algorithms have been used to train neural networks. However, local search algorithms are more efficient with computational resources, and therefore numerous random restarts with a local algorithm may be more effective than a global algorithm. This study uses Monte-Carlo simulations to determine the relative efficiency of a local search algorithm to 9 stochastic global algorithms. The computational requirements of the global algorithms are several times higher than the local algorithm and there is little gain in using the global algorithms to train neural networks

Forecasting Hog Prices with a Neural Network

Neural network models were compared to traditional forecasting methods in forecasting the quarterly and monthly farm price of hogs. A quarterly neural network model forecasted poorly in comparison to a quarterly econometric model. A monthly neural network model outperformed a monthly ARIMA model with respect to the mean square error criterion and performed similarly to the ARIMA model with respect to turning point accuracy. The more positive results of the monthly neural network model in comparison to the quarterly neural network model may be due to nonlinearities in the monthly data which are not in the quarterly data.Forecasting, Hog prices, Neural networks, ARIMA, Econometric, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries,