Global data gaps in our knowledge of the terrestrial cryosphere

The IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate identified major gaps in our knowledge of snow and glacier ice in the terrestrial cryosphere. These gaps are limiting our ability to predict the future of the energy and water balance of the Earth’s surface, which in turn affect regional climate, biodiversity and biomass, the freezing and thawing of permafrost, the seasonal supply of water for one sixth of the global population, the rate of global sea level rise and the risk of riverine and coastal flooding. Snow and ice are highly susceptible to climate change but although their spatial extents are routinely monitored, the fundamental property of their water content is remarkably poorly observed. Specifically, there is a profound lack of basic but problematic observations of the amount of water supplied by snowfall and of the volume of water stored in glaciers. As a result, the climatological precipitation of the mountain cryosphere is, for example, biased low by 50-100%, and biases in the volume of glacier ice are unknown but are likely to be large. More and better basic observations of snow and ice water content are urgently needed to constrain climate models of the cryosphere, and this requires a transformation in the capabilities of snow-monitoring and glacier-surveying instruments. I describe new solutions to this long-standing problem that if deployed widely could achieve this transformation

Subglacial landforms beneath Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica: detailed bed topography from ice-penetrating radar

We present a digital elevation model of the bed of Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica, derived from radio-echo sounding data. The data cover an 18  ×  40 km area immediately upstream of the grounding line of the ice stream. This area is of particular interest because repeated seismic surveys have shown that rapid erosion and deposition of subglacial sediments has taken place. The bed topography shows a range of different subglacial landforms including mega-scale glacial lineations, drumlins and hummocks. This data set will form a baseline survey which, when compared to future surveys, should reveal how active subglacial landscapes change over time. These data also allow comparison between subglacial landforms in an active system with those observed in deglaciated areas in both polar regions. The data set comprises observed ice thickness data, an interpolated bed elevation grid, observed surface elevation data and a surface elevation grid. The data set is available at http://doi.org/269

Measuring changes in snowpack SWE continuously on a landscape scale using lake water pressure

The seasonal snowpack is a globally important water resource that is notoriously difficult to measure. Existing instruments make measurements of falling or accumulating snow water equivalent (SWE) that are susceptible to bias, and most represent only a point in the landscape. Furthermore the global array of SWE sensors is too sparse and too poorly distributed to adequately constrain snow in weather and climate models. We present a new approach to monitoring snowpack SWE from time series of lake water pressure. We tested our method in the lowland Finnish Arctic and in an alpine valley and high-mountain cirque in Switzerland, and found that we could measure changes in SWE and their uncertainty through snowfalls with little bias and with an uncertainty comparable to or better than that achievable by other instruments. More importantly, our method inherently senses change over the whole lake surface, an area in this study up to 10.95 km2 or 274 million times larger than the nearest pluviometer. This large scale makes our measurements directly comparable to the grid cells of weather and climate models. We find, for example, snowfall biases of up to 100% in operational forecast models AROME-Arctic and COSMO-1. Seasonally-frozen lakes are widely distributed at high latitudes and are particularly common in mountain ranges, hence our new method is particularly well suited to the widespread, autonomous monitoring of snow-water resources in remote areas that are largely unmonitored today. This is potentially transformative in reducing uncertainty in regional precipitation and runoff in seasonally-cold climates

Glacier change along West Antarctica’s Marie Byrd Land Sector and links to inter-decadal atmosphere-ocean variability

Over the past 20 years satellite remote sensing has captured significant downwasting of glaciers that drain the West Antarctic Ice Sheet into the ocean, particularly across the Amundsen Sea Sector. Along the neighbouring Marie Byrd Land Sector, situated west of Thwaites Glacier to Ross Ice Shelf, glaciological change has been only sparsely monitored. Here, we use optical satellite imagery to track grounding-line migration along the Marie Byrd Land Sector between 2003 and 2015, and compare observed changes with ICESat and CryoSat-2-derived surface elevation and thickness change records. During the observational period, 33% of the grounding line underwent retreat, with no significant advance recorded over the remainder of the  ∼ 2200km long coastline. The greatest retreat rates were observed along the 650km-long Getz Ice Shelf, further west of which only minor retreat occurred. The relative glaciological stability west of Getz Ice Shelf can be attributed to a divergence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from the continental-shelf break at 135°W, coincident with a transition in the morphology of the continental shelf. Along Getz Ice Shelf, grounding-line retreat reduced by 68% during the CryoSat-2 era relative to earlier observations. Climate reanalysis data imply that wind-driven upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water would have been reduced during this later period, suggesting that the observed slowdown was a response to reduced oceanic forcing. However, lack of comprehensive oceanographic and bathymetric information proximal to Getz Ice Shelf's grounding zone make it difficult to assess the role of intrinsic glacier dynamics, or more complex ice-sheet–ocean interactions, in moderating this slowdown. Collectively, our findings underscore the importance of spatial and inter-decadal variability in atmosphere and ocean interactions in moderating glaciological change around Antarctica

Full-depth englacial vertical ice-sheet velocities measured using phase-sensitive radar

We describe a geophysical technique to measure englacial vertical velocities through to the beds of ice sheets without the need for borehole drilling. Using a ground-based phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder (pRES) during seven Antarctic field seasons, we measure the temporal changes in the position of englacial reflectors within ice divides up to 900 m thick on Berkner Island, Roosevelt Island, Fletcher Promontory and Adelaide Island. Recorded changes in reflector positions yield 'full-depth' profiles of vertical ice velocity that we use to examine spatial variations in ice flow near the divides. We interpret these variations by comparing them to the results of a full-Stokes simulation of ice-divide flow, qualitatively validating the model and demonstrating that we are directly detecting an ice-dynamical phenomenon called the Raymond Effect. Using pRES, englacial vertical ice velocities can be measured in higher spatial resolution than is possible using instruments installed within the ice. We discuss how these measurements could be used with inverse methods to measure ice rheology, and to improve ice-core dating by incorporating pRES-measured vertical velocities into age modelling

Contrasting fate of western Third Pole's water resources under 21st century climate change

Seasonal melting of glaciers and snow from the western Third Pole (TP) plays important role in sustaining water supplies downstream. However, the future water availability of the region, and even today’s runoff regime, are both hotly debated and inadequately quantified. Here, we characterize the contemporary flow regimes and systematically assess the future evolution of total water availability, seasonal shifts, and dry and wet discharge extremes in four most meltwater-dominated basins in the western TP, by using a process-based, well-established glacier-hydrology model, well-constrained historical reference climate data, and the ensemble of 22 global climate models with an advanced statistical downscaling and bias correction technique. We show that these basins face sharply diverging water futures under 21st century climate change. In RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, increased precipitation and glacier runoff in the Upper Indus and Yarkant basins more than compensate for decreased winter snow accumulation, boosting annual and summer water availability through the end of the century. In contrast, the Amu and Syr Darya basins will become more reliant on rainfall runoff as glacier ice and seasonal snow decline. Syr Darya summer river-flows, already low, will fall by 16–30% by end-of-century, and striking increases in peak flood discharge (by >60%), drought duration (by >1 month) and drought intensity (by factor 4.6) will compound the considerable water-sharing challenges on this major transboundary river

Antarctic ice rises and rumples: Their properties and significance for ice-sheet dynamics and evolution

Locally grounded features in ice shelves, called ice rises and rumples, play a key role buttressing discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet and regulating its contribution to sea level. Ice rises typically rise several hundreds of meters above the surrounding ice shelf; shelf flow is diverted around them. On the other hand, shelf ice flows across ice rumples, which typically rise only a few tens of meters above the ice shelf. Ice rises contain rich histories of deglaciation and climate that extend back over timescales ranging from a few millennia to beyond the last glacial maximum. Numerical model results have shown that the buttressing effects of ice rises and rumples are significant, but details of processes and how they evolve remain poorly understood. Fundamental information about the conditions and processes that cause transitions between floating ice shelves, ice rises and ice rumples is needed in order to assess their impact on ice-sheet behavior. Targeted high-resolution observational data are needed to evaluate and improve prognostic numerical models and parameterizations of the effects of small-scale pinning points on grounding-zone dynamics

Cells of the human intestinal tract mapped across space and time

Acknowledgements We acknowledge support from the Wellcome Sanger Cytometry Core Facility, Cellular Genetics Informatics team, Cellular Generation and Phenotyping (CGaP) and Core DNA Pipelines. This work was financially supported by the Wellcome Trust (W1T20694, S.A.T.; 203151/Z/16/Z, R. A. Barker.); the European Research Council (646794, ThDefine, S.A.T.); an MRC New Investigator Research Grant (MR/T001917/1, M.Z.); and a project grant from the Great Ormond Street Hospital Children’s Charity, Sparks (V4519, M.Z.). The human embryonic and fetal material was provided by the Joint MRC/Wellcome (MR/R006237/1) Human Developmental Biology Resource (https://www.hdbr.org/). K.R.J. holds a Non-Stipendiary Junior Research Fellowship from Christ’s College, University of Cambridge. M.R.C. is supported by a Medical Research Council Human Cell Atlas Research Grant (MR/S035842/1) and a Wellcome Trust Investigator Award (220268/Z/20/Z). H.W.K. is funded by a Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship (213555/Z/18/Z). A.F. is funded by a Wellcome PhD Studentship (102163/B/13/Z). K.T.M. is funded by an award from the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. H.H.U. is supported by the Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and the The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust. We thank A. Chakravarti and S. Chatterjee for their contribution to the analysis of the enteric nervous system. We also thank R. Lindeboom and C. Talavera-Lopez for support with epithelium and Visium analysis, respectively; C. Tudor, T. Li and O. Tarkowska for image processing and infrastructure support; A. Wilbrey-Clark and T. Porter for support with Visium library preparation; A. Ross and J. Park for access to and handling of fetal tissue; A. Hunter for assistance in protocol development; D. Fitzpatrick for discussion on developmental intestinal disorders; and J. Eliasova for the graphical images. We thank the tissue donors and their families, and the Cambridge Biorepository for Translational Medicine and Human Developmental Biology Resource, for access to human tissue. This publication is part of the Human Cell Atlas: https://www.humancellatlas.org/publications.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Cells of the human intestinal tract mapped across space and time.

Funder: Medical Research CouncilThe cellular landscape of the human intestinal tract is dynamic throughout life, developing in utero and changing in response to functional requirements and environmental exposures. Here, to comprehensively map cell lineages, we use single-cell RNA sequencing and antigen receptor analysis of almost half a million cells from up to 5 anatomical regions in the developing and up to 11 distinct anatomical regions in the healthy paediatric and adult human gut. This reveals the existence of transcriptionally distinct BEST4 epithelial cells throughout the human intestinal tract. Furthermore, we implicate IgG sensing as a function of intestinal tuft cells. We describe neural cell populations in the developing enteric nervous system, and predict cell-type-specific expression of genes associated with Hirschsprung's disease. Finally, using a systems approach, we identify key cell players that drive the formation of secondary lymphoid tissue in early human development. We show that these programs are adopted in inflammatory bowel disease to recruit and retain immune cells at the site of inflammation. This catalogue of intestinal cells will provide new insights into cellular programs in development, homeostasis and disease