Modeled nitrogen loading to Narragansett Bay: 1850 to 2015

Nutrient loading to estuaries with heavily populated watersheds can have profound ecological consequences. In evaluating policy options for managing nitrogen (N), it is helpful to understand current and historic spatial loading patterns to the system. We modeled N inputs to Narragansett Bay from 1850 to 2000, using data on population, human waste disposal, livestock, fertilizer, and atmospheric deposition. We found that total N loading to the bay increased 250% from 1850 to 2000, and 80% from 1900 to 2000. Loading to the upper bay increased far more than that to the lower bay, and the most important source shifted from non-point animal waste to human waste concentrated at sewage treatment facilities. We also modeled future N loads in 2015 under four management scenarios. Planned improvements in sewage treatment would reduce N loads 9% below business-as-usual, to the 1990 loading rate. Greater reductions, to circa 1900 rates of loading, may be possible

Validation and refinement of allometric equations for roots of northern hardwoods

The allometric equations developed by Whittaker et al. (1974. Ecol. Monogr. 44: 233–252), at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest have been used to estimate biomass and productivity in northern hardwood forest systems for over three decades. Few other species-specific allometric estimates of belowground biomass are available because of the difficulty in collecting the data, and such equations are rarely validated. Using previously unpublished data from Whittaker’s sampling effort, we extended the equations to predict the root crown and lateral root components for the three dominant species of the northern hardwood forest: American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britt), and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). We also refined the allometric models by eliminating the use of very small trees for which the original data were unreliable. We validated these new models of the relationship of tree diameter to the mass of root crowns and lateral roots using root mass data collected from 12 northern hardwood stands of varying age in central New Hampshire. These models provide accurate estimates of lateral roots (diameter) in northern hardwood stands \u3e20 years old (mean error 24%–32%). For the younger stands that we studied, allometric equations substantially underestimated observed root biomass (mean error \u3e60%), presumably due to remnant mature root systems from harvested trees supporting young root-sprouted trees

Ice storm effects on the canopy structure of a northern hardwood forest after 8 years

Ice storms can cause severe damage to forest canopies, resulting in differential mortality among tree species and size classes and leading to long-lasting changes in the vertical structure and composition of the forest. An intense ice storm in 1998 damaged large areas of the northern hardwood forest, including much of the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire (USA). Following up on detailed poststorm assessments, we measured changes in the vertical structure of the forest canopy 8 years poststorm. We focused on how the presence of disease-induced advance regeneration of American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.) has affected canopy structure in the recovering forest. We measured foliage-height profiles using a point-quadrat approach and a pole-mounted leaf area index (LAI) sensor. Although the total LAIs of damaged and undamaged areas were similar, areas damaged in 1998 showed an increased proportion of total leaf area between 6 and 10 m above the ground. The foliage at this height is largely (54%) beech. To the extent that this heavily beech-dominated understory layer suppresses regeneration of other species, these findings suggest that rare disturbances of mature northern hardwood forests affected by beech bark disease will increase the importance of damage-prone and economically marginal beech

Terrestrial gastropod responses to an ecosystem-level calcium manipulation in a northern hardwood forest

The effects of acid deposition on soil calcium (Ca), and in turn on land snail populations, have been of heightened concern for several decades. We compiled a 10 year record (1997–2006) of gastropod abundance on two small watersheds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, one of which was treated with a Ca addition in 1999. In years 3–7 post Ca addition, snail abundance in the treated watershed was 73% higher than in the reference area (p \u3c 0.001); there was no significant difference in the 3 years prior to treatment, and no significant difference in slug abundance in any year. We analyzed relationships between snail density and microsite spatial variation in leaf-litter Ca concentration, litter-layer thickness, tree species composition, slope, dead wood, and forest-floor light level. We found that snail abundance was significantly correlated with litter Ca concentration (p \u3c 0.001) and negatively correlated with the importance value of American beech (p = 0.05). Isotopic-tracer analysis indicated that, on average, 76% of Ca in snail shells 5 years post treatment was derived from the added Ca. However, interannual variation in snail numbers indicates that other factors beyond available Ca have a strong influence on snail abundance

Rates of sustainable forest harvest depend on rotation length and weathering of soil minerals

Abstract Removals of forest biomass in the northeastern US may intensify over the coming decades due to increased demand for renewable energy. For forests to regenerate successfully following intensified harvests, the nutrients removed from the ecosystem in the harvested biomass (including N, P, Ca, Mg, and K) must be replenished through a combination of plant-available nutrients in the soil rooting zone, atmospheric inputs, weathering of primary minerals, biological N fixation, and fertilizer additions. Few previous studies (especially in North America) have measured soil nutrient pools beyond exchangeable cations, but over the long rotations common in this region, other pools which turn over more slowly are important. We constructed nutrient budgets at the rotation time scale for three harvest intensities and compared these with detailed soil data of exchangeable, organic, and primary mineral stocks of in soils sampled in 15 northern hardwood stands developed on granitic till soils in the White Mountain region of New Hampshire, USA. This comparison can be used to estimate how many times each stand might be harvested without diminishing productivity or requiring fertilization. Under 1990s rates of N deposition, N inputs exceeded removals except in the most intensive management scenario considered. Net losses of Ca, K, Mg, and P per rotation were potentially quite severe, depending on the assumptions used.Biologically accelerated soil weathering may explain the lack of observed deficiencies in regenerating forests of the region. Sites differed widely in the long-term nutrient capital available to support additional removals before encountering limitations (e.g., a fourfold difference in available Ca, and a tenfold difference in weatherable Ca). Intensive short-rotation biomass removal could rapidly deplete soil nutrient capital, but traditional long rotations, even under intensive harvesting, are unlikely to induce nutrient depletion in the 21st century. Weatherable P may ultimately limit biomass production on granitic bedrock (in as few as 6 rotations). Understanding whether and how soil weathering rates respond to nutrient demand will be critical to determining long-term sustainability of repeated intensive harvesting over centuries

Climate change at the ecosystem scale: a 50-year record in New Hampshire

Observing the full range of climate change impacts at the local scale is difficult. Predicted rates of change are often small relative to interannual variability, and few locations have sufficiently comprehensive long-term records of environmental variables to enable researchers to observe the fine-scale patterns that may be important to understanding the influence of climate change on biological systems at the taxon, community, and ecosystem levels. We examined a 50-year meteorological and hydrological record from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, an intensively monitored Long-Term Ecological Research site. Of the examined climate metrics, trends in temperature were the most significant (ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 °C increase over 40–50 year records at 4 temperature stations), while analysis of precipitation and hydrologic data yielded mixed results. Regional records show generally similar trends over the same time period, though longer-term (70–102 year) trends are less dramatic. Taken together, the results from HBEF and the regional records indicate that the climate has warmed detectably over 50 years, with important consequences for hydrological processes. Understanding effects on ecosystems will require a diversity of metrics and concurrent ecological observations at a range of sites, as well as a recognition that ecosystems have existed in a directionally changing climate for decades, and are not necessarily in equilibrium with the current climate

A comparison of presettlement and modern forest composition along an elevation gradient in central New Hampshire

Tree species composition is influenced not only by edaphic and climatic factors but also by natural and human-caused disturbances. To understand interactions among these influences, we compared forest species composition data from the time of European settlement with modern data. We derived elevation data for 2529 trees mapped by early land surveys (1770–1850) across a 1000 m elevation gradient in central New Hampshire and compared these with modern data (2004–2009) from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program (123 plots containing 2126 trees) and from permanent plots representing case studies of different land-use histories. Spruce and beech are much less abundant today at all elevations than they were prior to settlement, while maples and birches have increased. Fir, hemlock, pines, and oaks have changed little in distribution, although pines and oaks increased in abundance somewhat. Land-use history (agriculture below 500 m and cutting of various intensities at all elevations) is likely the primary explanation for these shifts, although climate change is also an important factor for some. A clearer understanding of presettlement forest composition improves our ability to separate the relative importance of natural and human-driven influences on the species composition of today’s forests

A strategy-based framework for assessing the flood resilience of cities – the Hamburg case study

Climate change and continuous urbanization contribute to an increased urban vulnerability towards flooding. Only relying on traditional flood control measures is recognized as inadequate, since the damage can be catastrophic if flood controls fail. The idea of a flood-resilient city – one which can withstand or adapt to a flood event without being harmed in its functionality – seems promising. But what does resilience actually mean when it is applied to urban environments exposed to flood risk, and how can resilience be achieved? This paper presents a heuristic framework for assessing the flood resilience of cities, for scientists and policy-makers alike. It enriches the current literature on flood resilience by clarifying the meaning of its three key characteristics – robustness, adaptability and transformability – and identifying important components to implement resilience strategies. The resilience discussion moves a step forward, from predominantly defining resilience to generating insight into “doing” resilience in practice. The framework is illustrated with two case studies from Hamburg, showing that resilience, and particularly the underlying notions of adaptability and transformability, first and foremost require further capacity-building among public as well as private stakeholders. The case studies suggest that flood resilience is currently not enough motivation to move from traditional to more resilient flood protection schemes in practice; rather, it needs to be integrated into a bigger urban agenda