A Prospective Nested Case-Control Study of Dengue in Infants: Rethinking and Refining the Antibody-Dependent Enhancement Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Model

Analyses of a prospective case-control study of infant dengue by Daniel Libraty and colleagues casts doubt on the antibody-dependent enhancement model for dengue hemorrhagic fever

Immature Dengue Virus: A Veiled Pathogen?

Cells infected with dengue virus release a high proportion of immature prM-containing virions. In accordance, substantial levels of prM antibodies are found in sera of infected humans. Furthermore, it has been recently described that the rates of prM antibody responses are significantly higher in patients with secondary infection compared to those with primary infection. This suggests that immature dengue virus may play a role in disease pathogenesis. Interestingly, however, numerous functional studies have revealed that immature particles lack the ability to infect cells. In this report, we show that fully immature dengue particles become highly infectious upon interaction with prM antibodies. We demonstrate that prM antibodies facilitate efficient binding and cell entry of immature particles into Fc-receptor-expressing cells. In addition, enzymatic activity of furin is critical to render the internalized immature virus infectious. Together, these data suggest that during a secondary infection or primary infection of infants born to dengue-immune mothers, immature particles have the potential to be highly infectious and hence may contribute to the development of severe disease

Viral and Epidemiological Determinants of the Invasion Dynamics of Novel Dengue Genotypes

Dengue fever and the more severe dengue haemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome are mosquito borne viral infections that have seen a major increase in terms of global distribution and total case numbers over the last few decades. There are currently four antigenically distinct and potentially co-circulating dengue serotypes and each serotype shows substantial genetic diversity, organised into phylogenetically distinct genotypes or lineages. While there is some evidence for positive selection, the evolutionary dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) is supposed to be mostly dominated by purifying selection due to the constraints imposed by its two-host life-cycle. Motivated by a recent genotype replacement event whereby the resident American/Asian lineage of dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV2) had been displaced by the fitter Asian-1 lineage we investigated some of the epidemiological factors that might determine the success and invasion dynamics of a novel, advantageous dengue genotype. Our results show that although small differences in viral fitness can explain the rapid expansion and fixation of novel genotypes, their fate is ultimately determined by the epidemiological landscape in which they arise

Dengue Infection in Children in Ratchaburi, Thailand: A Cohort Study. II. Clinical Manifestations

Dengue infection is one of the most important diseases transmitted to human by mosquito bite. The disease may be mild or severe. This study reveals the occurrence and clinical features of diseases caused by dengue infection in a 3-year follow-up in school-children aged 3–14 years in Ratchaburi Province, Thailand using an active surveillance for the episodes of fever. Children who had fever were laboratory tested for the evidence of dengue infection and recorded for clinical features. It was found that most of dengue infected patients had headache, anorexia, nausea/vomiting, and muscle ache. About half of the patients had clinical symptoms that closely mimic other diseases, especially respiratory tract infection, and were incorrectly diagnosed by pediatricians. Only 11% of the patients had more a severe disease called “dengue hemorrhagic fever.” This severe disease may be predicted by the presence of anorexia, nausea/vomiting, and abdominal pain after the second day of illness. This study provides better understanding in this disease

High Dengue Case Capture Rate in Four Years of a Cohort Study in Nicaragua Compared to National Surveillance Data

Dengue is a major public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions; however, under-reporting of cases to national surveillance systems hinders accurate knowledge of disease burden and costs. Laboratory-confirmed dengue cases identified through the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) were compared to those reported from other health facilities in Managua to the National Epidemiologic Surveillance (NES) program of the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health. Compared to reporting among similar pediatric populations in Managua, the PDCS identified 14 to 28 (average 21.3) times more dengue cases each year per 100,000 persons than were reported to the NES. Applying these annual expansion factors to national-level data, we estimate that the incidence of confirmed pediatric dengue throughout Nicaragua ranged from 300 to 1000 cases per 100,000 persons. We have estimated a much higher incidence of dengue than reported by the Ministry of Health. A country-specific expansion factor for dengue that allows for a more accurate estimate of incidence may aid governments and other institutions calculating disease burden, costs, resource needs for prevention and treatment, and the economic benefits of drug and vaccine development

The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon