Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current

As resource management efforts move towards more comprehensive approaches that spin multiple sectors and stakeholder groups, decision makers are faced with the challenge of deciding how important each group is, and how much weight their concerns should have, when making decisions. These decisions must be made transparently if they are to have credibility. This paper describes a systematic approach to eliciting such preferences, illustrated through a regional application of the Ocean Health Index in the California Current. The Index provides an ideal case study as it includes a comprehensive set of goals designed to-assess the benefits people derive from coasts and oceans. The approach leverages the strengths of two different methods for eliciting preferences, one based on random utility theory and the other on analytical deliberative methodologies. Results showed that the methods were accessible to individuals with diverse backgrounds and, in this case, revealed surprising consensus about fundamental values that may have been missed in deliberations around a specific action, rather than evaluating a spectrum of management priorities. Specifically, individuals, even extractive users, assigned higher weights to cultural and conservation goals compared to extractive ones. The approach offers a general procedure for eliciting explicit preferences through constructive deliberations among diverse stakeholders. (C) 2013 Elsevier-Ltd. All rights reserved.Keywords: Probabilistic inversion, Ecosystem-based management, Deliberative analytical, Marine spatial planning, Expert judgmen

Are Surgical Trials with Negative Results Being Interpreted Correctly?

BACKGROUND: Many published accounts of clinical trials report no differences between the treatment arms, while being underpowered to find differences. This study determined how the authors of these reports interpreted their findings. STUDY DESIGN: We examined 54 reports of surgical trials chosen randomly from a database of 110 influential trials conducted in 2008. Seven that reported having adequate statistical power (b 0.9) were excluded from further analysis, as were the 32 that reported significant differences between the treatment arms. We examined the remaining 15 to see whether the authors interpreted their negative findings appropriately. Appropriate interpretations discussed the lack of power and/or called for larger studies. RESULTS: Three of the 7 trials that did not report an a priori power calculation offered inappropriate interpretations, as did 3 of the 8 trials that reported an a priori power < 0.90. However, we examined only a modest number of trial reports from 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Negative findings in underpowered trials were often interpreted as showing the equivalence of the treatment arms with no discussion of the issue of being underpowered. This may lead clinicians to accept new treatments that have not been validated

Strengthening Biblical Historicity vis-a`-vis Minimalism, 1992–2008 and Beyond. Part 2.3: Some Commonalities in Approaches to Writing Ancient Israel’s History

This series of articles covers scholarly works in English which can, at least potentially, be associated with a generally positive view of biblical historicity regarding periods preceding the Israelites’ return from exile. Part 2 covers works that treat the methodological issues at the center of the maximalist–minimalist debate. Parts 2.1 and 2.2 selectively survey the works of 24 non-minimalist scholars during two decades. In the absence of consensus, this article analyzes the works in Parts 2.1 and 2.2, tracing elements of approach that are held in common, at least among pluralities of non-minimalists (possible majorities are not noted). The first commonality of approach is that history is provisional, not final. The second is that history should become fully multidisciplinary. The third commonality is that historians should receive all historical evidence on an equal footing before examination and cross-examination. The fourth and last is that historians should become increasingly sensitive to cultural aspects and coding in ancient Near Eastern materials