Precarious Recovery: Ohio's Final Jobs Report for 2012 Shows Decline in Unemployment, but Also in Jobs, Labor Force

There was mixed news for Ohio's job market as 2012 ended, but two surveys released by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) showed the precarious state of the economic recovery. The unemployment rate continued to decline in December, but Ohio saw a drop in the labor force and another decline in the number of jobs

Ohio Job Data Send a Mixed Message

Data from two separate surveys released by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) today present a mixed message on the state job market in September

Collaborative and collective! Reflexive coordination and the dynamics of open innovation in clusters

Economic geography increasingly conceptualises "innovation as a collective action" (Storper, 1996). However, cluster literature often reduces the collective dimension to the circulation of knowledge between local-regional organisations based on various forms of (market, organisational, social, institutional or cognitive) coordination. This paper departs from this grass-roots perspective by discussing the role of collective actions in clusters, i.e. actions developed by a large number of cluster members acting as a group. Empirical evidence drawing on a study of three digital clusters in the Paris region shows that the cluster as a collective entity holds agency and - thanks to reflexive coordination - can contribute to open innovation - including innovation-seeking partnerships in the early stages of cluster lifecycles.open innovation; reflexive coordination; collaborative / collective actions; territory

Maintaining a frozen shipping environment for Phase I clinical trial distribution

The need for stringent temperature control provides significant challenges to pharmaceutical distributors operating in all sectors of the industry. Products with a frozen storage label requirement can be significantly problematic. This study aimed to provide evidence of robust and reproducible frozen shipment arrangements to be operated by a Phase I clinical trial unit. Dry ice was used to achieve a deep frozen internal parcel environment and was tested in a laboratory setting using ultra low temperature loggers within dummy product packs within the test parcels. The laboratory dry ice packing configuration was then repeatedly tested in real time transits using a Glasgow to London delivery schedule. An internal temperature specification was set to not exceed −10 °C during the transport. During each delivery, external temperature monitoring measured the temperature stress experienced by the box in transit. Results demonstrated the ability of the chosen system to not exceed −13.6 °C on average (−10 °C maximum) when exposed to external temperatures of up to +20.1 °C (mean kinetic temperature). The effect was maintained for at least 52.5 h

Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability

We argue that the current framework for predictive ability testing (e.g., West, 1996) is not necessarily useful for real-time forecast selection, i.e., for assessing which of two competing forecasting methods will perform better in the future. We propose an alternative framework for out-of-sample comparison of predictive ability which delivers more practically relevant conclusions. Our approach is based on inference about conditional expectations of forecasts and forecast errors rather than the unconditional expectations that are the focus of the existing literature. Compared to previous approaches, our tests are valid under more general data assumptions (heterogeneity rather than stationarity) and estimation methods, and they can handle comparison of both nested and non-nested models, which is not currently possible.Forecast Evaluation, Asymptotic Inference, Parameter-reduction Methods

Spartocera batatas (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Coreidae) : newly established in Florida

Spartocera batatas (Fabricius) was found for the first time in the USA in Homestead, Florida, in 1995. Records from Brazil, British Guiana, Colombia, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Grenada, Jamaica, Martinique, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Saba, and Venezuela also are reported. The bug can be a pest of sweet potato, Ipomoea batatas

Granger Causality, Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis

Policy analysis has long been a main interest of Clive Granger's. Here, we present a framework for economic policy analysis that provides a novel integration of several fundamental concepts at the heart of Granger's contributions to time-series analysis. We work with a dynamic structural system analyzed by White and Lu (2010) with well-defined causal meaning; under suitable conditional exogeneity restrictions, Granger causality coincides with this structural notion. The system contains target and control subsystems, with possibly integrated or cointegrated behavior. We ensure the invariance of the target subsystem to policy interventions using an explicitly causal partial equilibrium recursivity condition. Policy effectiveness is ensured by another explicit causality condition. These properties only involve the data generating process; models play a subsidiary role. Our framework thus complements that of Ericsson, Hendry, and Mizon (1998) (EHM) by providing conditions for policy analysis alternative to weak, strong, and super-exogeneity. This makes possible policy analysis for systems that may fail EHM's conditions. It also facilitates analysis of the cointegrating properties of systems subject to policymaker control. We discuss a variety of practical procedures useful for analyzing such systems and illustrate with an application to a simple model of the U.S. macroeconomy.

Employment Connection: Demand-Driven Model Increases Job Placement

In this report, we examine the transition to a demand-facing, employer-driven model that focuses on the transition impact to the adult and dislocated worker populations served by the Workforce Investment Act. By looking beyond the Workforce Investment Act common measures, we found that the number exiting the program to employment increased five-fold. Even as more people exit the program, a higher percentage of exiters are being placed in jobs. These are surprisingly strong results in a still-troubled regional economy

Maximum Likelihood and the Bootstrap for Nonlinear Dynamic Models

We provide a unified framework for analyzing bootstrapped extremum estimators of nonlinear dynamic models for heterogeneous dependent stochastic processes. We apply our results to the moving blocks bootstrap of Künsch (1989) and Liu and Singh (1992) and prove the first order asymptotic validity of the bootstrap approximation to the true distribution of quasi-maximum likelihood estimators. We also consider bootstrap testing. In particular, we prove the first order asymptotic validity of the bootstrap distribution of suitable bootstrap analogs of Wald and Lagrange Multiplier statistics for testing hypotheses. Nous proposons une approche unifiée pour analyser la méthode de bootstrap appliquée aux estimateurs de pseudo-maximum de vraisemblance dans le contexte de modèles non linéaires dynamiques où les données sont caractérisées par une dépendance d'époque proche. Nous appliquons nos résultats à la méthode de bootstrap de blocs mouvants de Künsch (1989) et Liu et Singh (1992) et nous démontrons la validité asymptotique de premier ordre de l'approximation du bootstrap à la distribution asymptotique de l'estimateur de pseudo-maximum de vraisemblance. Nous considérons aussi l'application du bootstrap à la réalisation de tests d'hypothèses. En particulier, nous démontrons la validité asymptotique des versions de bootstrap des tests de Wald et du multiplicateur de Lagrange.Block bootstrap, quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, nonlinear dynamic model, near epoch dependence, Wald test, Bootstrap en bloc, pseudo-maximum de vraisemblance, modèle non linéaire dynamique, dépendance d'époque proche, test de Wald

LEC System Development

The Lajet Energy Company (LEC) 460 is described. A parabolic dish which incorporates a microprocessor to automatically point it toward the Sun from sunrise to sunset is used. The dish is composed of a set of mirrors (made of reflective polymeric film) which focus and concentrate the Sun's energy on a receiver, producing intense but controlled amounts of heat. The LEC 460 employs a design concept that permits the use of common and low cost materials. All major structural components are fabricated from low carbon, low alloy steel using methods adaptable to mass production. The mirrors are supported on a steel tubing frame. This frame is attached near its center of gravity to a cantilevered support structure. The mirrors and frame are counterbalanced by the weight of the receiver, thus reducing the energy needed to move the collector (parasitic load) and allowing movement on two axes. Each LEC 460 solar concentrator contains a reflective array consisting of twenty four 60 inch diameter mirrors