Designing a model for the global energy system—GENeSYS-MOD : an application of the Open-Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS)

This paper develops a path for the global energy system up to 2050, presenting a new application of the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) to the community. It allows quite disaggregate energy and emission analysis: Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) uses a system of linear equations of the energy system to search for lowest-cost solutions for a secure energy supply, given externally defined constraints, mainly in terms of CO2-emissions. The general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) version of OSeMOSYS is updated to the newest version and, in addition, extended and enhanced to include e.g., a modal split for transport, an improved trading system, and changes to storages. The model can be scaled from small-scale applications, e.g., a company, to cover the global energy system. The paper also includes an application of GENeSYS-MOD to analyze decarbonization scenarios at the global level, broken down into 10 regions. Its main focus is on interdependencies between traditionally segregated sectors: electricity, transportation, and heating; which are all included in the model. Model calculations suggests that in order to achieve the 1.5–2 C target, a combination of renewable energy sources provides the lowest-cost solution, solar photovoltaic being the dominant source. Average costs of electricity generation in 2050 are about 4 cents/kWh (excluding infrastructure and transportation costs).DFG, 325093850, Open Access Publizieren 2017 - 2018 / Technische Universität Berli

Modeling the low-carbon transition of the European energy system - A quantitative assessment of the stranded assets problem

In this paper, multiple pathways for the European energy system until 2050 are computed, focusing on one of the major challenges of the low-carbon transition: the issue of unused capacities and stranded assets. Three different scenarios are analyzed, utilizing the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) for calculations. A major feature is the introduction of limited foresight and imperfect planning to the multi-sectoral approach of the model. A swift transition towards renewable energy sources is needed in order to ensure the goal of staying below 2 °C is maintained. This leads to the underutilization of current fossil-fueled plant capacities, an effect compounded by the prioritization of short-term goals over long-term targets. In the worst case, capacities with a combined value of up to 200 billion € corresponding to 260 GW total capacity may end up stranded by 2035, with significant shares in the coal and gas sectors. Contrary, in the baseline scenario featuring perfect foresight, this amount can by reduced by as much as 75%. Thus, the need for strong, clear signals from policy makers arises in order to combat the threat of short-sighted planning and investment losses

Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD

The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and need for sector coupling. This paper therefore showcases specific characteristics and challenges for energy system modelling of 100% renewable scenarios. The findings are based on various applications and modifications of the framework GENeSYS-MOD examining different regional characteristics for high renewable configurations in the world, China, India, South-Africa, Mexico, Europe, Germany, and Colombia. The paper elaborates on our experiences of the last years of choosing the best, yet still computable, configuration of GENeSYS-MOD with respect to spatial and time resolution as well as sufficient detailed description of the energy system transition effects. The aim of this paper is therefore twofold, to better understan

Assessing the implications of hydrogen blending on the European energy system towards 2050

With the aim of reducing carbon emissions and seeking independence from Russian gas in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, the use of hydrogen in the European Union is expected to rise in the future. In this regard, hydrogen transport via pipeline will become increasingly crucial, either through the utilization of existing natural gas infrastructure or the construction of new dedicated hydrogen pipelines. This study investigates the effects of hydrogen blending in existing pipelines on the European energy system by the year 2050, by introducing hydrogen blending sensitivities to the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD). Results indicate that hydrogen demand in Europe is inelastic and limited by its high costs and specific use cases, with hydrogen production increasing by 0.17% for 100%-blending allowed compared to no blending allowed. The availability of hydrogen blending has been found to impact regional hydrogen production and trade, with countries that can utilize existing natural gas pipelines, such as Norway, experiencing an increase in hydrogen and synthetic gas exports from 44.0 TWh up to 105.9 TWh in 2050, as the proportion of blending increases. Although the influence of blending on the overall production and consumption of hydrogen in Europe is minimal, the impacts on the location of production and dependence on imports must be thoroughly evaluated in future planning efforts

Avoid, Shift or Improve passenger transport? Impacts on the energy system

Demand-side mitigation strategies have been gaining momentum in climate change mitigation research. Still, the impact of different approaches in passenger transport, one of the largest energy demand sectors, remains unclear. We couple a transport simulation model to an energy system optimisation model, both highly disintegrated in order to compare those impacts. Our scenarios are created for the case of Germany in an interdisciplinary, qualitative–quantitative research design, going beyond techno-economic assumptions, and cover Avoid, Shift, and Improve strategies, as well as their combination. The results show that sufficiency – Avoid and Shift strategies – have the same impact as the improvement of propulsion technologies (i.e. efficiency), which is reduction of generation capacities by one quarter. This lowers energy system transformation cost accordingly, but requires different kinds of investments: Sufficiency measures require public investment for high-quality public services, while efficiency measures require individuals to purchase more expensive vehicles at their own cost. These results raise socio-political questions of system design and well-being. However, all strategies are required to unleash the full potential of climate change mitigation