Do Happy People Make Optimistic Investors?

Do happy people predict future risk and return differently from unhappy people, or do individuals rely only on economic facts? We survey investors on their subjective sentiment-creating factors, return and risk expectations, and investment plans. We find that non-economic factors systematically affect return and risk expectations, where the return effect is more profound. Investment plans are also affected by non-economic factors. Sports results and general feelings significantly affect predictions. Sufferers from seasonal affective disorder have lower return expectations in the autumn than in other seasons, supporting the Winter Blues hypothesis

Phenological shift in swarming patterns of Rhopilema nomadica in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Jellyfish (JF) swarms impact human wellbeing and marine ecosystems. Their global proliferation is a matter of concern and scientific debate, and the multitude of factors affecting (and affected by) their density and distribution merits long-term monitoring of their populations. Here we present an eight-year time series for Rhopilema nomadica, the most prominent JF species swarming the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Reports were submitted by the public and within it a group of trained participants via an internet website between June 2011 and June 2019. Data collected included species, size, location, ranked amount and stinging. Swarms of R. nomadica prevailed in July and ended in August but were also prominent in winter from January to March. Both observations deviate from past swarming patterns described in the late 1980s, when summer swarms persevered until October and winter swarms were not documented. Climate change (increasing water temperature) and the westwards up-current spread of R. nomadica are discussed as possible explanations for this phenological shift

Incorporating physiology into species distribution models moderates the projected impact of warming on selected Mediterranean marine species

Species distribution models (SDMs) correlate species occurrences with environmental predictors, and can be used to forecast distributions under future climates. SDMs have been criticized for not explicitly including the physiological processes underlying the species response to the environment. Recently, new methods have been suggested to combine SDMs with physiological estimates of performance (physiology-SDMs). In this study, we compare SDM and physiology-SDM predictions for select marine species in the Mediterranean Sea, a region subjected to exceptionally rapid climate change. We focused on six species and created physiology-SDMs that incorporate physiological thermal performance curves from experimental data with species occurrence records. We then contrasted projections of SDMs and physiology-SDMs under future climate (year 2100) for the entire Mediterranean Sea, and particularly the ‘warm’ trailing edge in the Levant region. Across the Mediterranean, we found cross-validation model performance to be similar for regular SDMs and physiology-SDMs. However, we also show that for around half the species the physiology-SDMs substantially outperform regular SDM in the warm Levant. Moreover, for all species the uncertainty associated with the coefficients estimated from the physiology-SDMs were much lower than in the regular SDMs. Under future climate, we find that both SDMs and physiology-SDMs showed similar patterns, with species predicted to shift their distribution north-west in accordance with warming sea temperatures. However, for the physiology-SDMs predicted distributional changes are more moderate than those predicted by regular SDMs. We conclude, that while physiology-SDM predictions generally agree with the regular SDMs, incorporation of the physiological data led to less extreme range shift forecasts. The results suggest that climate-induced range shifts may be less drastic than previously predicted, and thus most species are unlikely to completely disappear with warming climate. Taken together, the findings emphasize that physiological experimental data can provide valuable supplemental information to predict range shifts of marine species

Incorporating physiology into species distribution models moderates the projected impact of warming on Mediterranean marine species

Species distribution models (SDMs) correlate species occurrences with environmental predictors, and can be used to forecast distributions under future climates. SDMs have been criticized for not explicitly including the physiological processes underlying the species response to the environment. Recently, new methods have been suggested to combine SDMs with physiological estimates of performance (physiology-SDMs). In this study, we compare SDM and physiology-SDM predictions for select marine species in the Mediterranean Sea, a region subjected to exceptionally rapid climate change. We focused on six species and created physiology-SDMs that incorporate physiological thermal performance curves from experimental data with species occurrence records. We then contrasted projections of SDMs and physiology-SDMs under future climate (year 2100) for the entire Mediterranean Sea, and particularly the ‘warm’ trailing edge in the Levant region. Across the Mediterranean, we found cross-validation model performance to be similar for regular SDMs and physiology-SDMs. However, we also show that for around half the species the physiology-SDMs substantially outperform regular SDM in the warm Levant. Moreover, for all species the uncertainty associated with the coefficients estimated from the physiology-SDMs were much lower than in the regular SDMs. Under future climate, we find that both SDMs and physiology-SDMs showed similar patterns, with species predicted to shift their distribution north-west in accordance with warming sea temperatures. However, for the physiology-SDMs predicted distributional changes are more moderate than those predicted by regular SDMs. We conclude, that while physiology-SDM predictions generally agree with the regular SDMs, incorporation of the physiological data led to less extreme range shift forecasts. The results suggest that climate-induced range shifts may be less drastic than previously predicted, and thus most species are unlikely to completely disappear with warming climate. Taken together, the findings emphasize that physiological experimental data can provide valuable supplemental information to predict range shifts of marine species

A mesocosm concept for the simulation of near-natural shallow underwater climates: The Kiel Outdoor Benthocosms (KOB)

Biogenic, seasonal, and stochastic fluctuations at various scales characterize coastal marine habitats and modulate environmental stress. The relevance of most past studies into climate change impacts is weakened by the usually intentional exclusion of fluctuations from the experimental design. We describe a new outdoor mesocosm system for benthic research (“benthocosms”) which permit the control and manipulation of several environmental variables while admitting all natural in situ fluctuations. This is achieved by continuously measuring the relevant variables (e.g., temperature, pH, O2, CO2) in situ, defining these in real time as reference values in the control software and simulating target climates by delta treatments. The latter constitute the manipulative addition of predefined changes (e.g., “warming”, “acidification”) to the reference values. We illustrate the performance of the system by presenting the environmental data of four seasonal experiments which together represent an entire year. The “Kiel Outdoor Benthocosms” allow realizing near-natural climate change experiments on complex benthic communities under controlled scenarios

Multiple transgressions and slow evolution shape the phylogeographic pattern of the blind cave-dwelling shrimp Typhlocaris

Background: Aquatic subterranean species often exhibit disjunct distributions, with high level of endemism and small range, shaped by vicariance, limited dispersal, and evolutionary rates. We studied the disjunct biogeographic patterns of an endangered blind cave shrimp, Typhlocaris, and identified the geological and evolutionary processes that have shaped its divergence pattern. Methods: We collected Typlocaris specimens of three species ( T. galilea, T. ayyaloni, and T. salentina), originating from subterranean groundwater caves by the Mediterranean Sea, and used three mitochondrial genes (12S, 16S, cytochrome oxygnese subunit 1 (COI)) and four nuclear genes (18S, 28S, internal transcribed spacer, Histon 3) to infer their phylogenetic relationships. Using the radiometric dating of a geological formation (Bira) as a calibration node, we estimated the divergence times of the Typhlocaris species and the molecular evolution rates. Results: The multi-locus ML/Bayesian trees of the concatenated seven gene sequences showed that T. salentina (Italy) and T. ayyaloni (Israel) are sister species, both sister to T. galilea (Israel). The divergence time of T. ayyaloni and T. salentina from T. galilea was 7.0 Ma based on Bira calibration. The divergence time of T. ayyaloni from T. salentina was 5.7 (4.4-6.9) Ma according to COI, and 5.8 (3.5-7.2) Ma according to 16S. The computed interspecific evolutionary rates were 0.0077 substitutions/Myr for COI, and 0.0046 substitutions/Myr for 16S. Discussion: Two consecutive vicariant events have shaped the phylogeographic patterns of Typhlocaris species. First, T. galilea was tectonically isolated from its siblings in the Mediterranean Sea by the arching uplift of the central mountain range of Israel ca. seven Ma. Secondly, T. ayyaloni and T. salentina were stranded and separated by a marine transgression ca. six Ma, occurring just before the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Our estimated molecular evolution rates were in one order of magnitude lower than the rates of closely related crustaceans, as well as of other stygobiont species. We suggest that this slow evolution reflects the ecological conditions prevailing in the highly isolated subterranean water bodies inhabited by Typhlocaris

Respiratory complications during recovery from gastrointestinal endoscopies performed by gastroenterologists under moderate sedation

Background/Aims Data on the incidence of adverse respiratory events during recovery from gastrointestinal endoscopy are limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of these complications. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, data were obtained from the electronic records of 657 consecutive patients, who underwent gastroenterological procedures under sedation. Results Pulse oximetry oxygen saturation (SpO2) 60 seconds occurred in 79 patients (12.0%) and in 14 patients (2.1%), and SpO2 <75% occurred in four patients (0.6%) and in no patients during the procedure and recovery period, respectively. No major complications were noted. The occurrence of desaturation during recovery was correlated with desaturation during the procedure (p<0.001). Higher American Society of Anesthesiologists score (odds ratio [OR], 1.867; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.008–3.458), ischemic heart disease (OR, 1.815; 95% CI, 0.649–5.080), hypertension (OR, 1.289; 95% CI, 0.472–3.516), and diabetes mellitus (OR, 2.406; 95% CI, 0.950–6.095) increased the occurrence of desaturation during recovery. Conclusions We found no major complications during recovery after balanced propofol-based sedation administered by a gastroenterologist-nurse team. Patients with the identified risk predictors must be monitored carefully