A probabilistic analysis of argument cogency

This paper offers a probabilistic treatment of the conditions for argument cogency as endorsed in informal logic: acceptability, relevance, and sufficiency. Treating a natural language argument as a reason-claim-complex, our analysis identifies content features of defeasible argument on which the RSA conditions depend, namely: change in the commitment to the reason, the reason’s sensitivity and selectivity to the claim, one’s prior commitment to the claim, and the contextually determined thresholds of acceptability for reasons and for claims. Results contrast with, and may indeed serve to correct, the informal understanding and applications of the RSA criteria concerning their conceptual dependence, their function as update-thresholds, and their status as obligatory rather than permissive norms, but also show how these formal and informal normative approachs can in fact align

StemNet: An Evolving Service for Knowledge Networking in the Life Sciences

Up until now, crucial life science information resources, whether bibliographic or factual databases, are isolated from each other. Moreover, semantic metadata intended to structure their contents is supplied in a manual form only. In the StemNet project we aim at developing a framework for semantic interoperability for these resources. This will facilitate the extraction of relevant information from textual sources and the generation of semantic metadata in a fully automatic manner. In this way, (from a computational perspective) unstructured life science documents are linked to structured biological fact databases, in particular to the identifiers of genes, proteins, etc. Thus, life scientists will be able to seamlessly access information from a homogeneous platform, despite the fact that the original information was unlinked and scattered over the whole variety of heterogeneous life science information resources and, therefore, almost inaccessible for integrated systematic search by academic, clinical, or industrial users

EDGE: a code to calculate diffusion of cosmic-ray electrons and their gamma-ray emission

The positron excess measured by PAMELA and AMS can only be explained if there is one or several sources injecting them. Moreover, at the highest energies, it requires the presence of nearby ($\sim$hundreds of parsecs) and middle age (maximum of $\sim$hundreds of kyr) source. Pulsars, as factories of electrons and positrons, are one of the proposed candidates to explain the origin of this excess. To calculate the contribution of these sources to the electron and positron flux at the Earth, we developed EDGE (Electron Diffusion and Gamma rays to the Earth), a code to treat diffusion of electrons and compute their diffusion from a central source with a flexible injection spectrum. We can derive the source's gamma-ray spectrum, spatial extension, the all-electron density in space and the electron and positron flux reaching the Earth. We present in this contribution the fundamentals of the code and study how different parameters affect the gamma-ray spectrum of a source and the electron flux measured at the Earth.Comment: Presented at the 35th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC2017), Bexco, Busan, Kore

Explaining away, augmentation, and the assumption of independence

In reasoning about situations in which several causes lead to a common effect, a much studied and yet still not well-understood inference is that of explaining away. Assuming that the causes contribute independently to the effect, if we learn that the effect is present, then this increases the probability that one or more of the causes are present. But if we then learn that a particular cause is present, this cause “explains” the presence of the effect, and the probabilities of the other causes decrease again. People tend to show this explaining away effect in their probability judgments, but to a lesser extent than predicted by the causal structure of the situation. We investigated further the conditions under which explaining away is observed. Participants estimated the probability of a cause, given the presence or the absence of another cause, for situations in which the effect was either present or absent, and the evidence about the effect was either certain or uncertain. Responses were compared to predictions obtained using Bayesian network modeling as well as a sensitivity analysis of the size of normative changes in probability under different information conditions. One of the conditions investigated: when there is certainty that the effect is absent, is special because under the assumption of causal independence, the probabilities of the causes remain invariant, that is, there is no normative explaining away or augmentation. This condition is therefore especially diagnostic of people’s reasoning about common-effect structures. The findings suggest that, alongside earlier explanations brought forward in the literature, explaining away may occur less often when the causes are assumed to interact in their contribution to the effect, and when the normative size of the probability change is not large enough to be subjectively meaningful. Further, people struggled when given evidence against negative evidence, resembling a double negation effect

Higgs Signal for h to aa at Hadron Colliders

We assess the prospect of observing a neutral Higgs boson at hadron colliders in its decay to two spin-zero states, a, for a Higgs mass of 90-130 GeV, when produced in association with a W or Z boson. Such a decay is allowed in extensions of the MSSM with CP-violating interactions and in the NMSSM, and can dominate Higgs boson final states, thereby evading the LEP constraints on standard Higgs boson production. The light spin-zero state decays primarily via a to bb and tau+tau-, so this signal channel retains features distinct from the main backgrounds. Our study shows that at the Tevatron, there may be potential to observe a few events in the bb tau+tau- or bbbb channels with relatively small background, although this observation would be statistically limited. At the LHC, the background problem is more severe, but with cross sections and integrated luminosities orders of magnitude larger than at the Tevatron, the observation of a Higgs boson in this decay mode would be possible. The channel h to aa to bbbb would provide a large statistical significance, with a signal-to-background ratio on the order of 1:2. In these searches, the main challenge would be to retain the adequate tagging efficiency of b's and tau's in the low p_T region.Comment: Version to be published in JHEP. 20 pages, 5 figure