Reassessing the relationship between the financial sector and economic growth: Dynamic panel evidence

Historically, the development of the financial sector has been an indispensable driver of economic growth. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, there is a pressing need to reassess the role of the financial sector in the determination of economic growth. Using a dynamic panel framework, our analysis covers 34 European and Commonwealth of Independent States economies for the period 1998–2014 and controls for the role of macroeconomic and institutional variables. Our evidence suggests that the potential benefits of the financial sector finance may have dramatically reversed in recent years, resulting in “un-creative destruction.” The results suggest, tentatively, that there has been a severance of the link between the financial sector and the real economy. The results, however, vary according to the level of economic development across the European and Commonwealth of Independent States economies. In the case of developing market economies, the financial intermediation proxies are not significant in explaining economic growth. The effect of changes in investment expenditure, the money supply, wages, unit labour costs, and trade openness is found to be strong and in line with a priori expectations across all country samples. Notably, government consumption is also found to be a significant driver of economic growth, except in the developing market economies in the period following the Great Recession. In line with the growing consensus in other research areas, we provide evidence of a robust role for the institutional framework proxied by the quality of governance in determining economic development

Banking reform and financial sector development in Central and Eastern Europe and EU Accession Countries

From the empirical evidence on the finance-growth-nexus in European transition countries, we conclude that financial sector reform, especially of the banking sector, can contribute to economic growth and speed up transition. Empirical research by Cottarelli, Dell´Arriccia and Vladkova-Hollar (2005) and others has provided evidence that factors originating in the banking system, rather than the corporate sector, were responsible for growth differences in accession and transition economies. In extending the conventional finance-growth framework and based on observations in New EU-Member States (NMS), we suggest that strong foreign bank investment and related cross-border credit from parent banks may have been a substitute for domestic bank growth and thus in supporting real sector growth in South-Eastern Europe (SEE). Given the massive-scale involvement of foreign banks in NMS and SEE, more research is necessary in this area. In SEE countries, economic and bank transition started later than in NMS because of political circumstances. As evident from the experience in NMS, financial development is not growthsupportive when the institutional and legal framework given to market participants is not appropriate. Unsound banking intermediation has a direct impact on economic growth as such behaviour perpetuates economic stagnation and inefficient use of resources. Unsound financial sectors in SEE also indirectly hamper economic growth, as they pose serious obstacles to inflows of foreign direct investment which in turn would contribute to economic growth. When financial institutions are subject to poor governance and incentive structures, finance can hardly promote growth. Instead of supporting growth, granting bad loans back to companies of their owners, for example, leads to resource misallocation, reduced private sector confidence and results in lower investment and growth. Policies thus should continue to focus on alleviating the bottlenecks to financial intermediation by guaranteeing stable macroeconomic conditions and a sound institutional legal and supervisory environment. The involvement of foreign banks is found to be a major factor for stabilizing the banking sector and making it fit to support economic growth