Cluster-Robust Bootstrap Inference in Quantile Regression Models

In this paper I develop a wild bootstrap procedure for cluster-robust inference in linear quantile regression models. I show that the bootstrap leads to asymptotically valid inference on the entire quantile regression process in a setting with a large number of small, heterogeneous clusters and provides consistent estimates of the asymptotic covariance function of that process. The proposed bootstrap procedure is easy to implement and performs well even when the number of clusters is much smaller than the sample size. An application to Project STAR data is provided.Comment: 46 pages, 4 figure

Kinematic Mappings for Cayley-Klein Geometries via Clifford Algebras

This paper unifies the concept of kinematic mappings by using geometric algebras. We present a method for constructing kinematic mappings for certain Cayley-Klein geometries. These geometries are described in an algebraic setting by the homogeneous Clifford algebra model. Displacements correspond to Spin group elements. After that Spin group elements are mapped to a kinematic image space. Especially for the group of planar Euclidean displacements SE(2) the result is the kinematic mapping of Blaschke and Gr\"unwald. For the group of spatial Euclidean displacements SE(3) the result is Study's mapping. Furthermore, we classify kinematic mappings for Cayley-Klein spaces of dimension 2 and 3

Economic growth in the post-socialist Russian Federation after 1991: The role of Institutions

The paper emphasizes the transition in Russia and the role institutions played before and during the process. In Russia, a big bang approach was applied. That is to say, transition was conducted all of a sudden, omitting important underlying reforms. This practice should function as a shock therapy. Hence, the approach should leave no other chance than an abrupt adaption to the new free-market rules. These rules would then lead to fast economic growth and development, as they did in other places. However, since Russian GDP per capita and thereby living standards deteriorated dramatically in the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the plan did not work. At any rate, since then Russian economic indicators recovered and partly achieved their pre-1991 levels at the end of the last decade. The paper depicts Russia's reform efforts and the subsequent developments. The close ties among the political elite, the banking sector and the old nomenklatura are demonstrated. The patrimonial system that persisted for centuries is still observable at the state level. At any rate, Russia can neither evade its historical and institutional development path nor its societal structures that are based on networks and nepotism. Russia's systemic lack of the rule of law and therewith of secure property, the character of the Russian political system with the patriarch as the head of state and the resulting necessity of corruption and bribes inhibit the realization of its full growth potential. --country studies,economic systems,formerly centrally planned economies,growth,institutions,transition economies

Estimating the characteristics of runoff inflow into Lake Gojal in ungauged, highly glacierized upper Hunza River Basin, Pakistan

Motivated by the potential flood outburst of Lake Gojal in the ungauged highly glacierized (27%) upper Hunza River Basin (HRB) in Pakistan that was dammed by a massive landslide on 4 January 2010, we attempt to analyze the characteristics of water inflow to the lake employing remote sensing data, two hydrological models, and sparsely observed data. One of the models (Model I) is a monthly degree-day model, while another (Model II) is the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. The mixture of glacier runoff output from Model I and runoff over unglacierized areas calculated by Model II has a similar seasonal variation pattern as that estimated from data recorded at a downstream station. This suggests that glacier runoff is the main source (87%) of runoff inflow into the lake. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the water inflow to the lake is highly sensitive to an increase in air temperature. Runoff in May is predicted to sharply increase by 15% to more than two-fold if the air temperature increases by 1 to 7, but it is predicted to increase only from 9% to 34% if the precipitation increases by 10% to 40%. The results suggested that the water inflow into Lake Gojal will not sharply rise even if there is heavy rain, and it needs to be in caution if the air temperature sharply increases. Analysis on long-term air temperature record indicates that the water inflow into the lake in May 2010 was probably less than average owing to the relatively low air temperature. Consequently, the flood outburst did not occur before the completion of the spillway on 29 May 2010. © 2013 China University of Geosciences and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Child labour and education: Evidence from SIMPOC surveys

This document is part of a digital collection provided by the Martin P. Catherwood Library, ILR School, Cornell University, pertaining to the effects of globalization on the workplace worldwide. Special emphasis is placed on labor rights, working conditions, labor market changes, and union organizing.ILO_ChildLabourandEducation_SIMPOCSurveys.pdf: 617 downloads, before Oct. 1, 2020

Leader election: A Markov chain approach

A well-studied randomized election algorithm proceeds as follows: In each round the remaining candidates each toss a coin and leave the competition if they obtain heads. Of interest is the number of rounds required and the number of winners, both related to maxima of geometric random samples, as well as the number of remaining participants as a function of the number of rounds. We introduce two related Markov chains and use ideas and methods from discrete potential theory to analyse the respective asymptotic behaviour as the initial number of participants grows. One of the tools used is the approach via the R\'enyi-Sukhatme representation of exponential order statistics, which was first used in the leader election context by Bruss and Gr\"ubel in \cite{BrGr03}

Application of a grid-scale lateral discharge model in the BALTEX region

In this study, a hydrological discharge model is presented which may be applied as a tool to validate the simulation of the hydrologic cycle of atmospheric models that are used in climate change studies. It can also be applied in studies of global climate change to investigate how changes in climate may affect the discharge of large rivers. The model was developed for the application with the climate models used at the Max-Planck- Institute for Meteorology. It describes the translation and retention of the lateral waterflows on the global scale as a function of the spatially distributed land surface characteristics which are globally available. Here, global scale refers to the resolution of 0.5° and lower, corresponding to a typical average gridbox area of about 2500 km2. The hydrological discharge model separates between the flow processes of overland flow, baseflow and overflow. The model parameters are mainly functions of the gridbox characteristics of topography and gridbox length. The hydrological discharge model is applied to the BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment) region using input from an atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM4) as well as from a regional climate model (REMO). The simulated inflows into the Baltic Sea and its sub- catchments are compared to observed and naturalized discharges. The results of this comparison are discussed and the simulated values of precipitation, surface air temperature and accumulated snowpack are compared to both observed data and surrogate data